Capital accumulation,endogenous population growth,and Easterlin cycles

In this paper we attempt to explain the occurrence of population cycles in industrialised economies where the birth rate depends on the difference between the actual and the expected consumption rate. This model of an endogenously growing population brings together Easterlin's idea of an adapting aspiration level with the neoclassical optimal growth paradigm. It is shown that in this highly aggregated demo-economic system (i.e., without inclusion of the age structure of a population) swings both in the economic and demographic variables may exist. The reason behind this strange optimal behaviour is identified to be an intertemporal substitution effect between current and future levels of consumption.We wish to thank A. Novak for helpful assistance and an anonymous referee for useful comments. Financial support by the Austrian Science Foundation under contract No. P6601 is acknowledged.     

Society,family, and gender in Santa Fe,New Granada,until the end of the colony

The author examines family structure in Santa Fe, the capital of New Granada, a Spanish colony that included Colombia, Ecuador, Panama, and Venezuela. The focus is on the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries. He finds that social class structure was closely related to ethnic group and skin color, and that the sex ratio was biased toward women. Women also headed nearly 50% of all households. Data are mainly from the 1801 smallpox census.     

《新西兰文化与认同感·序言》

《新西兰文化与认同感·序言》大卫·诺维茨比尔·威尔莫特著涂开益徐永安译编选本书的初衷,源出编者在讨论新西兰民族认同感与文化的基本命题时,对于人们所持方式的关注。我们俩人一致认为,当时的争论有两点失之偏颇：一是如何准确理解被称之为文化的这种奇特现象,二...     

Marriage selection and age patterns of mortality: a mathematical investigation

"In this paper, we use simulation models to demonstrate the complexity of the relationship between the marriage selection process and the resulting RMRs [relative mortality ratios]. In particular, we show that marriage selection alone can produce a relative mortality ratio which remains large and relatively constant at ages far beyond the marriage span....Our general objective...is to determine the range of age patterns of relative mortality which could, in theory, result from marriage selection on the basis of health characteristics. We also evaluate the effects of variations in the marriage selection mechanisms on the resulting mortality patterns....We develop and apply several simple mathematical models of the marriage selection process. In order to distinguish the potential consequences of marriage selection from marriage protection, we consider hypothetical populations in which causal effects are absent....We begin by considering an extremely simple marriage selection process and subsequently explore a more realistic selection model based on recent death and marriage rates for Japan."     

Setting health priorities: a review of concepts and approaches

The setting of health priorities is primarily concerned with the equitable distribution of resources and is now more than ever an important part of strategic planning within the National Health Service (NHS). The basic information which can be used to assist in such decision-making and the process by which different agencies become involved are important aspects of priority-setting; this article is based on a major review of the research literature on these aspects and provides a discussion and an analysis of experience within health and other fields. From this material a number of possible approaches to priority-setting are identified and discussed. The article concludes that, before it can be decided how priorities should be set in the future, outstanding questions about how far rational approaches are feasible, about who is to be involved and what role they should play, and about how far such decisions are to be taken nationally or locally will need further consideration.     

经济理论的第二次危机

1971年12月27日,英国经济学家琼·罗宾逊在美国经济学协会第八十四届年会的理查德·艾黎讲座上作了一篇题为《经济理论的第二次危机》的讲演.罗宾逊夫人在讲演中提出了资产阶级经济理论正在经受第二次危机,并对美国凯恩斯派经济理论展开了猛烈的抨击.我国学术界对此讲演曾作过介绍.鉴于这场论争有助于我们了解垄断资产阶级经济理论的发展和演变,现将罗宾逊夫人的《经济理论的第二次危机》和美国凯恩斯派代表人物詹姆斯·托宾的《英国剑桥与美国剑桥之间的论战》两篇文章的摘要一并刊出;同时,我们请中国社会科学院经济研究所黄范章同志写了一篇文章:《从"两个剑桥之争"谈起》,对这场论争的背景和意义,作了扼要的评论.     

The dynamics and differentials of fertility in the USSR (survey results)

The results of a fertility survey carried out in the USSR in 1978 are presented. The survey included 33,076 women aged 18 to 59. Data are included on fertility rates by region and Union Republic and by urban or rural area, and on expected fertility of women aged 18 to 44. Changes in actual and desired fertility over time are compared for five-year periods from 1945 to 1978. Differences in fertility are analyzed by type of settlement, educational status, and nationality.     

Parental survival data: Some results of the application of Ledermann's model life tables

Summary Ledermann's one- and two-parameter model life tables are used in order to summarize and compare adult mortality estimates derived from parental survival data, and also to link parental survival with child survival data. The Ledermann models provide an alternative to the logit model used by Brass and Hill. Examination of life tables derived from actual child and adult mortality estimates reveals that although the two types of models yield similar overall levels of mortality, they show marked differences in the estimated patterns by sex and age. It has not been possible to disentangle completely how much of this divergence is due to the models themselves and how much to inadequacies in the data available. Finally, we question whether it is always wise to establish a full life table from child and adult mortality estimates when these are based on data which refer to different periods of exposure to the risk of dying, without allowance for possible distortions resulting from mortality change.