Regional differences in life expectancy

An analysis of life tables constructed for the 49 voivodships of Poland for the years 1973-1975 and 1976-1980 is presented. The life tables have been prepared for periods of several years to avoid distortions due to data inadequacies for the smaller voivodships. The paper is in two parts: Part 2 is concerned with the major causes of death and the effect of their elimination on life expectancy.     

Losses of Expected Lifetime in the United States and Other Developed Countries: Methods and Empirical Analyses

Patterns of diversity in age at death are examined using e ^†, a dispersion measure that equals the average expected lifetime lost at death. We apply two methods for decomposing differences in e ^†. The first method estimates the contributions of average levels of mortality and mortality age structures. The second (and newly developed) method returns components produced by differences between age- and cause-specific mortality rates. The United States is close to England and Wales in mean life expectancy but has higher life expectancy losses and lacks mortality compression. The difference is determined by mortality age structures, whereas the role of mortality levels is minor. This is related to excess mortality at ages under 65 from various causes in the United States. Regression on 17 country-series suggests that e ^† correlates with income inequality across countries but not across time. This result can be attributed to dissimilarity between the age- and cause-of-death structures of temporal mortality reduction and intercountry mortality variation. It also suggests that factors affecting overall mortality decrease differ from those responsible for excess lifetime losses in the United States compared with other countries. The latter can be related to weaknesses of health system and other factors resulting in premature death from heart diseases, amenable causes, accidents and violence.     

Interpreting seventeenth-century probate documents: John Carter, master carpenter in St Albans

This is a study of a successful seventeenth-century carpenter in St Albans, John Carter, using probate and other documents, assisted by a large-scale computer database of St Albans residents of the period. Sections of the article cover his family, his work and his house and its contents, which have been reconstructed from his probate inventory and from knowledge of the structure of other local houses of the period. Carter's social standing is discussed, both in its local context and in relation to previous probate inventory analyses. This micro-study sheds unusual light upon aspects of the life of a 'middling sort' of person, living in a thriving market town in close proximity to London, at the beginning of the consumer age.     

Evaluating Population Forecast Accuracy: A Regression Approach Using County Data

Many studies have evaluated the impact of differences in population size and growth rate on population forecast accuracy. Virtually all these studies have been based on aggregate data; that is, they focused on average errors for places with particular size or growth rate characteristics. In this study, we take a different approach by investigating forecast accuracy using regression models based on data for individual places. Using decennial census data from 1900 to 2000 for 2,482 counties in the US, we construct a large number of county population forecasts and calculate forecast errors for 10- and 20-year horizons. Then, we develop and evaluate several alternative functional forms of regression models relating population size and growth rate to forecast accuracy; investigate the impact of adding several other explanatory variables; and estimate the relative contributions of each variable to the discriminatory power of the models. Our results confirm several findings reported in previous studies but uncover several new findings as well. We believe regression models based on data for individual places provide powerful but under-utilized tools for investigating the determinants of population forecast accuracy.     

The relationship between old-fashioned and modern heterosexism to social dominance orientation and structural violence

This study proposes that broader social systemic factors could have a role in the perpetuation of two types of heterosexism. Old-fashioned and modern heterosexism are discussed and differentiated. The roles of social dominance orientation and the acceptance of structural violence in the maintenance of heterosexism are explored. Results indicated that social dominance orientation and the acceptance of structural violence predicted the level of old-fashioned and modern heterosexism in a sample of 129 people. Acceptance of structural violence better predicted both modern and old-fashioned heterosexism than did social dominance orientation. Such relationships highlight the possibility that social systemic beliefs may create and support heterosexism.     

Word play, ritual insult, and volleyball in Peru

Many gay men in the popular sectors of Lima, Peru participate in vóley callejero, or street volleyball. The ethnographic data presented in this article describes verbal and corporal mechanisms through which gay identity emerges within the particular context of the street volleyball game, ultimately highlighting the contextual nature of identity. The volleyball players are not just hitting a ball back and forth, they are engaging in a meaningful activity that illuminates intersections of language, sexuality, and identity. Through the manipulation of the street into a volleyball court, the volleyball players create a space conducive to the articulation of particular verbal and embodied practices that index gay identity. The challenge to the regulations of "proper" volleyball through the practice of ritual insulting and the cultivation of gay volleyball technique are playful reconfigurations of gendered practices prominent in the sites where fieldwork was carried out.     

HIGH DIMENSIONAL COVARIANCE MATRIX ESTIMATION IN APPROXIMATE FACTOR MODELS

The variance covariance matrix plays a central role in the inferential theories of high dimensional factor models in finance and economics. Popular regularization methods of directly exploiting sparsity are not directly applicable to many financial problems. Classical methods of estimating the covariance matrices are based on the strict factor models, assuming independent idiosyncratic components. This assumption, however, is restrictive in practical applications. By assuming sparse error covariance matrix, we allow the presence of the cross-sectional correlation even after taking out common factors, and it enables us to combine the merits of both methods. We estimate the sparse covariance using the adaptive thresholding technique as in Cai and Liu (2011), taking into account the fact that direct observations of the idiosyncratic components are unavailable. The impact of high dimensionality on the covariance matrix estimation based on the factor structure is then studied.     

Opportunities for minimization of confounding in observational research

Observational epidemiological studies are increasingly used in pharmaceutical research to evaluate the safety and effectiveness of medicines. Such studies can complement findings from randomized clinical trials by involving larger and more generalizable patient populations by accruing greater durations of follow-up and by representing what happens more typically in the clinical setting. However, the interpretation of exposure effects in observational studies is almost always complicated by non-random exposure allocation, which can result in confounding and potentially lead to misleading conclusions. Confounding occurs when an extraneous factor, related to both the exposure and the outcome of interest, partly or entirely explains the relationship observed between the study exposure and the outcome. Although randomization can eliminate confounding by distributing all such extraneous factors equally across the levels of a given exposure, methods for dealing with confounding in observational studies include a careful choice of study design and the possible use of advanced analytical methods. The aim of this paper is to introduce some of the approaches that can be used to help minimize the impact of confounding in observational research to the reader working in the pharmaceutical industry.     

女性、战争、和平缔造与战后重建

基于性别的暴力,特别是性暴力,已经成为一种战争武器,成为当代武装冲突中的鲜明特征之一。本文关注的是武装冲突中的女性保护问题,以及女性在冲突解决和和平缔造过程中的中心作用。作者描述了妇女及少女在战争和冲突状况下的经历,分析了女性在参与冲突之后的和平缔造时遇到的限制,还剖析了联合国通过安理会第1325号决议在和平创建中扮演的角色。