USE OF EXPERT RATINGS AS SAMPLING STRATA FOR A MORE COST-EFFECTIVE PROBABILITY SAMPLE OF A RARE POPULATION

We consider situations in which externally observable characteristics allow experts to quickly categorize individual households as likely or unlikely to contain a member of a rare target population. This classification can form the basis of disproportionate stratified sampling such that households classified as "unlikely" are sampled at a lower rate than those classified as "likely," thereby reducing screening costs. Design weights account for this approach and allow unbiased estimates for the target population.We demonstrate that with sensitivity and specificity of expert classification at least 70%, and ideally at least 80%, our approach can economically increase effective sample size for a rare population. We develop heuristics for implementing this approach and demonstrate that sensitivity drives design effects and screening costs whereas specificity only drives the latter. We demonstrate that the potential gains from this approach increase as the target population becomes rarer. We further show that for most applications, unlikely strata should be sampled at 1/6 to ? the rate of likely strata.This approach was applied to a survey of Cambodian immigrants in which the 82% of households rated "unlikely" were sampled at ? the rate as "likely" households, reducing screening from 9.4 to 4.0 approaches per complete. Sensitivity and specificity were 86% and 91% respectively. Weighted estimation had a design effect of 1.26 so screening costs per effective sample size were reduced 47%. We also note that in this instance, expert classification appeared to be uncorrelated with survey outcomes of interest among eligibles.     

投资合作对中国与东盟国家全球价值链地位的影响

文章在全球价值链升级与重构的大背景下,利用中国与东盟国家的面板数据构建固定效应模型,根据GVC生产分解模型构建全球价值链地位综合衡量指标,实证研究中国与东盟国家双向投资对双方全球价值链地位的影响。结果表明：中国与东盟国家间的双向投资提升了其在全球价值链的相对位置和生产活动所能获得增加值的能力,对双方全球价值链地位的提升均有显著的促进作用。因此,中国与东盟国家应该继续积极合作,充分利用国际分工由全球性向区域性转移的大趋势,构建同时符合双方实际需要的供应链和价值链体系,从而更好地推动全产业链的功能升级。     

失败是个孤儿

1919年11月10日,他出生于苏联西伯利亚的乡村,家中有19个兄弟姐妹,家境贫寒。6岁时,他染上重病,差点丧命,但由于上天眷顾,他又活了下来。     

维吾尔语词的色彩义初探

色彩义是附加在词的概念上的某种附加意义,词的色彩义通常是指词在表示某一理性或概念意义的同时所表现出来的某种倾向或情调和韵味的意义。本文通过对维吾尔语词的色彩义的研究分析,较全面地收集、考察维吾尔语中带有色彩意义的词语,并作出分析,归纳总结维吾尔语词的色彩义类别。从而为现代维吾尔语的语义学尤其词汇语义学的研究提供研究基础和依据。     

Marriage and family therapists working with couples who have children with autism

Current research about families and couples who have children with autism is discussed using the Double ABCX model as a guide. A case study is presented along with recommendations for therapists who work with couples who have children with autism. Marriage and family therapists are encouraged to use the Double ABCX model as both an assessment tool as well as for intervention. More research and effective therapists in this area are needed in order to keep up with the rising rates of families that include children diagnosed with autism.     

Collective efficacy, family attachment, and urban adolescent suicide attempts

The suicide rate among American adolescents between the ages of 14-25 has dramatically increased during the last 50 years, and this fact has been the focus of extensive social-scientific investigation. To date, however, research focusing on the joint effects of mental health, family, and contextual-level predictors on adolescents' suicidal behaviors is scarce. Drawing on Durkheim's classic macro-level approach to suicide and collective efficacy theory, we use data from the Project on Human Development in Chicago Neighborhoods (PHDCN) to examine the effect of informal social controls on adolescents' suicide attempts. Analyzing reports from 990 youth, we examine the hypothesis that neighborhood-level collective efficacy and family-level integration and social control independently affect suicide attempts. We also examine the extent to which they interact in their effects on suicidal behavior. Overall, results from multilevel logit models support the Durkheimian expectation that family attachment reduces the probability that adolescents will attempt suicide. The effect of collective efficacy is interactive in nature. Specifically, we find that collective efficacy significantly enhances the protective effect of family attachment and support on adolescent suicidal behaviors. We discuss findings within the context of social control theory.     

Participation in the School Breakfast Program: new evidence from the ECLS-K

This article examines determinants of participation in the federal School Breakfast Program among third-grade public school students. Data come from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study—Kindergarten Cohort. Results suggest that participation is much less common in the School Breakfast Program than in the National School Lunch Program, even among children whose schools offer both programs. Economic vulnerability, time constraints, and local norms are found to be linked to participation; program and logistical aspects, such as whether schools serve breakfast in the classroom and the length of time available for breakfast, are predictive. Results suggest that participation in the School Breakfast Program could be increased by adjusting program characteristics and by enhancing outreach efforts.     

Stress and tobacco use among African-American adolescents: the buffering effect of cultural factors

Tobacco is a leading contributor to morbidity and mortality and a primary reason for health disparities among African Americans. In this study we explore the role of stress in smoking and cultural factors that protect against stress among African-American adolescents. Our sample consisted of 239 youth who were recruited into the study while enrolled in 8th and 12th grade. Measures of risk factors (stress, school transition stress, and community disorganization), moderator or protective factors (religious support and intergenerational connections), and 30-day tobacco use were collected. Hierarchical multiple regression analyses were conducted. Intergenerational connections moderated the effect of stress on past 30-day tobacco use. Religious support moderated the effect of neighborhood disorganization on past 30-day tobacco use. Religious support also moderated the effect of stress on past 30-day tobacco use. The findings have implications for prevention efforts to consider religious beliefs and practices and also to link youth with supportive adults in their community.     

Gathering time-series data for evaluating behavior-change campaigns in developing countries: reactivity of diaries and interviews

Gathering time-series data of behaviors and psychological variables is important to understand, guide, and evaluate behavior-change campaigns and other change processes. However, repeated measurement can affect the phenomena investigated, particularly frequent face-to-face interviews, which are often the only option in developing countries. This article presents three intervention control studies to investigate this issue. Daily diaries in Cuba did not affect behavior or attitudes for persons with intervention but reduced attitudes for persons without intervention. Reactivity of face-to-face interviews in Bolivia was negligible if applied weekly, but strong if applied twice per week. The article concludes with recommendations for gathering time-series data in developing countries.