Interpreting demographic effects in duration analyses of first birth intervals

Estimated demographic effects in proportional hazard models of first birth intervals could reflect time-invariant differences in the risk of a birth, or differences in the timing of a shift in the risk, or both. This paper attempts to distinguish between these possibilities. The procedure is to estimate a more general model than the proportional hazard specification, in which the evolution of the risk of a birth can differ with demographic characteristics. The proportional hazard specification is nested within this more general model. Consequently, the consistency of the data with the risk or the timing interpretation of demographic effects can be tested. The data studied do not lead to a rejection of the proportional hazard specification.Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. The initial stage of this research was supported by a National Science Foundation Graduate Fellowship. I have benefited from insightful comments from David Bloom, Andrew Foster, Zvi Griliches, V. Joseph Hotz, Duncan Thomas, anonymous referees, and participants in seminars at Harvard University and the University of Pennsylvania, and in the Economic Demography sessions of the 1988 Population Association of America annual meetings. Any remaining errors are my own.     

Data collection: are social workers reliable?

Social workers are required to collect a considerable amount of personal information about clients and their families which may be unrelated to direct clinical work. Administrators often use this for the purpose of payment, service documentation, agency planning, and accountability. The worker's concern about the appropriateness of collecting this data may result in poor compliance or even falsification of information. In a survey of Minnesota social workers, noncompliance with data collection requirements was substantial. The authors also found a significant degree of conflict about privacy and confidentiality issues. These findings suggest a basis of concern for those who must rely on accurate data for administrative planning.     

Bulgarian Turkish emigration and return

The main factors which determined the 1989 migration of Turks in Bulgaria back to Turkey are discussed. Background history is provided. After World War I, Turks in bulgaria comprised 10% of the total population. Bulgarian policy had been, up to the 1980s to send Rumelian Turks back, but the policy after 1980 was one of a national revival process to integrate Turks into the developed socialist society. Muslim traditions, customs, and Turkish language were interfered with. International disfavor resulted. In May 1989, the Communist Party declared, in an effort to show democratic ideals, open borders. Thus began the new emigration wave. 369,839 people fled to the Turkish border. 43% of the 9.47 ethnic Turks in bulgaria went to Turkey within 4 months. The numbers decreased in November, and soon after the communist regime ended. New laws were adopted allowing Turks to assume their original Turkish names. The huge migration was clearly political, and as such, the emigrant Turks should be determined as refugees and asylum seekers. The provocation of ethnic Turks was used by the communist regime to solve potential social conflicts. Not only did Turks flee to escape from violence or for religious, cultural, and moral reasons but also due to free market initiatives begun in Turkey in the early 1980s which improved Turkish quality of life. Food and consumer goods were cheaper and economic advantages were perceived. Emigrants were primarily peasants with lower levels of education, professional qualifications, and labor skills. 154,937 (42%) returned to bulgaria and 58% stayed in Turkey to comprise 25% of the former Turkish population. During this period, tensions between countries was high.l Bulgarians actively encouraged emigration and Turkey welcomed it. The emigrants to Turkey were seen as foreigners (muhacir or gocmen) but were received with good will and were readily accepted into menial positions. Emigrants were confronted with political, linguistic, and cultural differences. The unifying factor was the Islamic religion. For those returning to Bulgaria, the change in regime meant the government worked to solve the emigrants' housing problems and teaching Turkish in primary and secondary schools. The result of this massive migration has been a change in the demographics and social structure of Bulgaria, and the realization that forceful migration is inefficient in solving problems.     

A generalization of Petersen's typology of migration

A typology of migration is presented that extends the one originally developed by William Petersen, which was based on ecological push, migration policy, people's aspirations, and social momentum. The proposed typology considers both the migrant's state of mind and two points in time. Examples of 36 migrant types are provided using data for Canada and selected other countries. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)     

宗教象征艺术

一、森林之歌在扎伊尔的艾图瑞(Ituri)森林中,特恩布尔·科林(Coin Turnbull)和巴姆布蒂(Bambuti)人一起生活了一个阶段,他们属于矮种人.特恩布尔·科林把自己的感受写成《森林人》一书.这本书中,我最喜欢的一些事情,可能有助于阐述自己对无文字民族宗教象征艺术的性质的看法.这些事情,发生在要举行仪式之前的几个月中.每晚上,矮人燃起一堆专门的营火,他们集拢在火堆周围,且歌且宴.他们唱的歌直接与森林有关,把森林看作是他们的供养者,一种实体或特别是在这种场合存在于他们知觉中的神.森林以动听的歌回报他们,歌声从营地四周森林的各个位置发出,响彻夜空,终夜不绝入耳.森林之歌产生于熟练的喇叭筒游戏.这种仪式和吼声器,统称为"莫里莫"(Molimo).     

空间嵌入视角下民族互嵌型社区的形成与发展——新疆塔城哈尔墩社区的个案

文章基于新疆塔城哈尔墩社区的田野调查,从空间嵌入的视角对该民族互嵌型社区形成和发展的历程,即社区的生命史进行描述和分析。调查发现,该社区的生命史反映了清末以来各民族人口向塔城迁移汇聚的历史进程,是塔城各民族由“小聚居”逐渐走向“嵌入”历程的一个缩影。文章认为,应加强对历史上形成并延续至当下的民族互嵌型社区的调查和研究,以空间嵌入为“起手棋”,关照社区生命史与族群生活史的互构,并将社区的小历史嵌入于整体社会的大历史中,进而从“国家—区域—地方”三个维度的互动中对这类社区的形成与发展进行解释。     

Retiree medical plan design: determining the philosophy, communicating the need

Much has been written, both in benefit-related journals and in the general press, about the recent statement, FAS 106, issued by the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB). This statement requires most employers to begin accounting for retiree health care benefit costs for active employees as well as current retirees, creating a significant negative financial impact. Most of the attention has been focused on getting the numbers that will tell the extent of the impact resulting from FAS 106. The next step has been to review retiree medical coverage to see how the affected companies can change it to reduce their liability. Although the urge is strong to adopt a quick-fix solution, employers can greatly benefit by reviewing their benefit philosophies and making plan decisions that make sense for them. This article discusses key questions that can help focus the issue on company philosophies and lays out a framework for determining suitable plan designs that can also help companies manage the retiree medical liability.     

Optimal pension funding with demographic instability and endogenous returns on investment

This paper tries to explore some optimal funding policies for pension systems in a general equilibrium setting where funding affects returns on investment and wages through its impact on capital formation. This is done in the context of irregular demographic evolutions such as those expected in developed countries for the next century. Particular attention is given to the intergenerational welfare criterion which is used for designing optimal policies. It appears that funding receives low justification with a welfare criterion which assumes a high substitutability between consumptions of successive cohorts, implying a low concern for intergenerational equity. Funding is highly justified in the opposite case where a high level of consumption for some cohorts is not considered as a compensation for low consumption by others. However the optimal patterns of transfers and savings which are found in this latter case are not straightforward. Some simpler funding rules are explored in the last section of this paper, which show that non-optimal funding may imply, on the contrary, a high level of inequality between subsequent generations.Paper presented at the ISPE-conference Fiscal implications of an ageing population, May–June 1990 at Vaalsbroek, The Netherlands. We thank Pierre Pestieau for his remarks on a first draft of this paper. We also thank for their comments our two discussants Carol Propper and Lans Bovenberg, as well as other participants to the ISPE Conference. Any errors are, of course, ours.     

富民兴盟 教育先行

沙漠戈壁绵亘境内2/3的阿拉善盟,建国初(原阿拉善旗、额济纳旗)仅有小学4所,初中一所,在校生738人,教职工33人.民族教育尤为落后,蒙古族识字者仅有270余人,占人口总数的2.1%.1990年底,全盟所辖三旗(阿拉善左旗、阿拉善右旗、额济纳旗)、两场(吉兰太、雅布赖盐场)各级种类学校已发展到132所,在校生33656人,其中蒙授6878人,教职工专任教师3449人,蒙授800人.建盟十年间,全盟基本普及初等教育,扫除了文盲.中小学全部实现"一无两有"或"一无五有".危房下降到0.84%.小学、初中、高中专任教师合格率均列全区前茅.冲破樊篱走出新路1983年,鉴于陈旧落后的教育结构、教学方法、教学内容、教育管理体制等制约着教育的发展.盟委、行署制定了《关于当前教育改革若干问题的决定》,首先