中国的社会学研究及老龄问题

对于社会学和人类学在中国的地位,我们应该结合建国以来影响高等教育和研究的一系列国家政策来加以认识.在建立新的教育体系方面,中国人曾十分信赖苏联人.按照苏联的说法,在马克思主义的国家里没有必要设置诸如社会学、人类学,特别是社会文化人类学这样的资产阶级课程.社会学和社会人类学在中国被作为"禁区"达二十七年之久.研究这些经历对社会学家所产生的影响是很有意义的.因为不仅有个人受挫折的一面,还潜在着积极的一面.     

空间嵌入视角下民族互嵌型社区的形成与发展——新疆塔城哈尔墩社区的个案

文章基于新疆塔城哈尔墩社区的田野调查,从空间嵌入的视角对该民族互嵌型社区形成和发展的历程,即社区的生命史进行描述和分析。调查发现,该社区的生命史反映了清末以来各民族人口向塔城迁移汇聚的历史进程,是塔城各民族由“小聚居”逐渐走向“嵌入”历程的一个缩影。文章认为,应加强对历史上形成并延续至当下的民族互嵌型社区的调查和研究,以空间嵌入为“起手棋”,关照社区生命史与族群生活史的互构,并将社区的小历史嵌入于整体社会的大历史中,进而从“国家—区域—地方”三个维度的互动中对这类社区的形成与发展进行解释。     

Poisson regression with misclassified counts: application to cervical cancer

"Errors in disease classification can give misleading inferences for covariate effects when the probability of error is itself related to the covariates. More accurate inferences are possible using supplemental data on both true and fallible disease counts at various covariate levels. We present a method for incorporating such supplemental data into disease rate regression and use it to show that, although observed intercountry differences in European cervical cancer mortality rates are exaggerated by errors in death certification, they are not completely explained by such errors." The data concern Belgium, England and Wales, France, and Italy.     

Population growth,farmland, and the long-run standard of living

This paper studies the natural-resources element in the theory of population growth over the very long run. In the context of the stock of land and Malthusian crises in earlier times, the model shows how resources have become more available rather than more scarce, even as population and income have increased.The paper sketches a mechanism which, added to the Malthusian system, leads to entirely different conclusions than does the Malthusian system. Using the illustration of food and land, change in knowledge and hence in the stock of resources is made a function of the stock of knowledge and the price of resources. The speed of adjustment depends on the economic and social climate for the development of new knowledge. Population growth first raises food and land prices, which then stimulate the creation of new resources, eventually leading to less scarcity of resources and lower prices than originally prevailed.That is, population growth creates new problems which in the short run constitute additional burdens which, in the longer run, lead to new developments that leave people better off than if the problems had never arisen.This paper benefitted from being presented in earlier draft at a Population Association of America meeting, to the Economic History workshop at the University of Illinois, and to a seminar of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population in New Delhi. We appreciate valuable comments on earlier drafts from Stanley Engerman, E. L. Jones, William McNeill, and two anonymous referees. Gunter Steinmann acknowledges financial support from the Volkswagen Foundation and a travel grant from Fulbright Commission.     

Population changes and the cost of health care for the elderly in Poland

"The author...has attempted to measure the effects of population changes upon the costs of health care [in Poland] by applying a simulation model. In this model the total cost of health care is a function of the per capita cost of health care by age, sex, and place of residence (urban, rural) and population structure.... The paper includes...the results concerning population 60 years of age and over." Data are from several official health-related surveys carried out in 1989.     

富民兴盟 教育先行

沙漠戈壁绵亘境内2/3的阿拉善盟,建国初(原阿拉善旗、额济纳旗)仅有小学4所,初中一所,在校生738人,教职工33人.民族教育尤为落后,蒙古族识字者仅有270余人,占人口总数的2.1%.1990年底,全盟所辖三旗(阿拉善左旗、阿拉善右旗、额济纳旗)、两场(吉兰太、雅布赖盐场)各级种类学校已发展到132所,在校生33656人,其中蒙授6878人,教职工专任教师3449人,蒙授800人.建盟十年间,全盟基本普及初等教育,扫除了文盲.中小学全部实现"一无两有"或"一无五有".危房下降到0.84%.小学、初中、高中专任教师合格率均列全区前茅.冲破樊篱走出新路1983年,鉴于陈旧落后的教育结构、教学方法、教学内容、教育管理体制等制约着教育的发展.盟委、行署制定了《关于当前教育改革若干问题的决定》,首先     

Strategic planning for the board

Although the planning operation is regarded by some observers as unrealistic in conditions of rapid change and increasing competition, the discipline of strategic thinking and the need for strategic leadership continue to be of vital importance. The author examines the purpose of the Board of Directors and its role in the management of strategy.     

Capital accumulation,endogenous population growth,and Easterlin cycles

In this paper we attempt to explain the occurrence of population cycles in industrialised economies where the birth rate depends on the difference between the actual and the expected consumption rate. This model of an endogenously growing population brings together Easterlin's idea of an adapting aspiration level with the neoclassical optimal growth paradigm. It is shown that in this highly aggregated demo-economic system (i.e., without inclusion of the age structure of a population) swings both in the economic and demographic variables may exist. The reason behind this strange optimal behaviour is identified to be an intertemporal substitution effect between current and future levels of consumption.We wish to thank A. Novak for helpful assistance and an anonymous referee for useful comments. Financial support by the Austrian Science Foundation under contract No. P6601 is acknowledged.     

Population and towns in Senegal: demo-geographic growth

Using data from the 1976 and 1988 censuses, the author notes that the population of Senegal has grown by 37.6 percent over the period and that this growth is concentrated in urban areas. One feature of this trend has been the growing primacy of the capital Dakar and a decline in the relative importance of smaller towns. The need to discourage rural-urban migration by promoting socioeconomic development in rural areas is stressed. (SUMMARY IN ENG)