The dependency ratio and optimum population growth

This paper examines the effects of introducing a variable dependency ratio in Dasgupta's (1969) model. We consider a case in which the probability of dying as well as the rate of participation in the labor force change with age. It is shown that the inclusion of those realistic demographic features slows down the optimal rate of population growth and increases the rate of consumption. In spite of the reduction in the rate of population growth, this rate can still be positive. The sensitivity of the solutions to changes in the demographic parameters of the model is examined.     

Eastern European countries in the context of a demographic transition typology

An attempt is made to develop a typology of the demographic transition based on the experience of 23 European countries. The typology is then used to examine the characteristics of the demographic transition in the socialist countries of Eastern Europe.     

Fertility in Poland during the 1980s: analysis of a maternity questionnaire

Recent fertility trends in Poland are analyzed using data from a mail survey conducted in 1984. The demographic, social, and economic characteristics of women who gave birth in 1984, their husbands, and their parents are examined. The results show an increase in fertility in the early 1980s, particularly in urban areas.     

Fertility decline in Bangladesh: an emerging family planning success story

Bangladesh has a population of 115 million people, and the economic growth rate of 3.7% during the 1980s was undermined by rapid population growth. The annual population growth rate was 3% in the 1960s and early 1970s, 2.5% between 1981-91 decreasing to 2.3% in 1991. The average of number of children is 4.6/woman compared with 7 in the 1960s. Infant mortality dropped from 150/1000 births in 1976 to 118/1000 in 1991. Life expectancy rose from 47 to 54 years. The 1991 Contraceptive Prevalence Survey showed that 39.9% of married women under 50 use contraceptives in 1991 vs. 18.6% in 1981. The use of modern methods increased from 10.9% in 1981 to 31.2% in 1991, while traditional methods rose from 7.7% to 8.7%. Sterilization was most prevalent in 1981. 29,000 female family planning (FP) workers were aggressively engaged in dispensing FP services in 1990. The Social Marketing Company sells pills, condoms, and oral rehydration salts through 130,000 retail outlets. The 1989 Contraceptive Prevalence Survey showed that 40% of pill and condom users obtained them from this network, and 95.4% of women knew about 4 methods of contraception. In 1990 there were 120 private organizations providing contraceptive services. Some of the components of the government FP program include field worker distribution door-to-door of injectable contraceptives (50% injectable usage rate in the Matlab project); recordkeeping activities; a satellite clinic network with access to contraceptive services; and decentralization through the Upazila (subdistrict) approach. The logistics system of FP has improved the warehousing, transportation, and management information system. Foreign aid (mainly USAID) financing of contraceptives helped avert 14.4 million births between 1974-90. The increase of contraceptive prevalence to 50% by 1997 would avert another 21.9 million births during 1991-96 (replacement fertility requires 70% prevalence.     

Saving and consumption patterns of the elderly

The paper provides an empirical analysis of saving and consumption choices of the elderly in Germany, based on the German income and expenditure surveys 1978 and 1983. Main feature of these data is the large sample size making it possible to analyze saving and consumption patterns of the very old (aged 75 and above).The observed age-consumption profiles are very different from those predicted by the pure life-cycle theory. Although wealth is declining between age 60 and 70, it increases again after 70, such that the very old have the highest savings rates among all age groups and accumulate wealth rather than decumulate it. These profiles are not confounded by cohort effects and mortality differences. The corresponding expenditure data suggest the following explanation: due to the generous German pension system and the almost complete coverage of health expenses by the mandatory health insurance in Germany, the declining consumption n very old age cannot exhaust the annuity income of the elderly such that wealth is being accumulated in old age.Research in this paper was supported by the National Institute on Aging, grant no. 3 PO1 AG05842-01. I appreciate the helpful comments by Doug Bernheim, Angus Deaton, Daniel McFadden, Jonathan Skinner, Konrad 'Stahl and David Wise, and two anonymous referees. I am indebted to Hermann Buslei and Johannes Velling who provided most valuable and able assistance.     

Current status of and prospects for China Population Information Centre

The China Population information Centre (CPIC), set up in May 1980, is a national institution for population information research under the State Family Planning Commission. Its main functions are to 1) collect, process, and distribute and foreign materials on population and family planning; 2) collect, tabulate, and analyze population and family planning data; 3) keep abreast of new population and family planning developments within and outside the country; 4) edit and publish information materials; and 5) provide information users with diversified services. The CPIC has 8 operational units: 1) the Library, 2) the Statistics Division, 3) the 1st Information Research Division, 4) the 2nd Information Research Division, 5) the Editorial Division, 6) the Translation Division, 7) the Computer Division, and 8) the Technical Support Division.     

Measures to facilitate the return and reintegration of highly skilled migrants into African countries

A very large number of skilled Africans are found to be operating in the developed industrialized countries of the West at a time when their national economies are crying out for their services. Ways must be found to return as many of these skilled Africans as possible to the African economy. This out-migration or brain drain has a number of causes, including: 1) real incomes in Africa have been on the decline in the past several years while prices were constantly rising. Professional and salaried workers seek employment in other countries that pay much higher salaries. 2) Promotion on criteria other than merit is common in Africa and diligence and high productivity are not often rewarded. 3) Political interference frustrates public services professionals; they are rendered unable to use their professional judgement in making decisions that affect the economic and social fabric. 4) The inadequacy of higher education facilities and opportunities in African countries encourages the brightest and best qualified Africans to go to Western Europe and North America for school; they tend not to return after graduation. 5) Political upheavals and general instability contribute to feelings of individual insecurity, sending Africans to seek sanctuary in more politically stable and less repressive environments. Actions needed to control this out-migration include: 1) incentive systems should be reviewed with a view to providing realistic levels of renumeration and working conditions should be made to promote job satisfaction and self-actualization. 2) Capacities and capabilities should be strengthened so as to ensure that production of goods and services becomes indigenized and that the development and operation of institutions emanates from within the continent. 3) Educational services should be expanded and improved to obviate the need for large numbers of Africans to seek educational opportunities abroad.     

Return migration from Australia: a case study

"The study investigates the departure from Australia of former settlers who arrived during the 1980 calendar year. The 1980 settler arrival cohort [consists] of 75,167 visaed migrants.... The study has three main aims: (i) to analyse departures from Australia of the 1980 settler arrival cohort with a view to gauging the success of Australia's immigration program in retaining settlers; (ii) to examine the retention rates of settlers with respect to characteristics...including age, sex, marital status, country of last residence, and settler eligibility category; and (iii) to consider implications of the findings." Australia's present immigration policy is discussed, previous research on return migration from Australia is summarized, and a detailed analysis of the departure data is presented. "This study found that by August 1984, 12.4 per cent of non-refugee settlers who arrived in Australia during 1980 had departed permanently but that only 0.6 per cent of the 1980 refugee cohort had done so." These figures represent a decline in immigrant departure rates since the 1960s and early 1970s. Small differences in departure rates by place of birth, age, and marital status, which may have demographic consequences if sustained over time, are noted. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)     

Migration of the rural population under conditions of agro-industrial integration

Factors affecting rural-urban migration in the USSR are examined. The author suggests that a lower rate of such migration is associated with the creation of agro-industrial centers.     

如何将社会学作为伦理学来教授

一、哪些做法不对?社会学确实在许多大学生的心目中威信不高,他们时常认为:社会学令人厌烦地对一些明显的、过分抽象的和对生活用处不大的事理作过分冗长的讨论,是堪与经济学并列的最"乏味"的科学.我们的一些同行认为,产生这种看法的原因是社会学太专业化和科学化了.但我们认为原因远不止此.专业化的知识对于任何寻求更多地了解世界的科学来说,似乎是必不可少的和正当的目标.问题不在于教师对学生教授了什么,而在于哪些还没有传授给