Bayesian palaeoclimate reconstruction

Summary.  We consider the problem of reconstructing prehistoric climates by using fossil data that have been extracted from lake sediment cores. Such reconstructions promise to provide one of the few ways to validate modern models of climate change. A hierarchical Bayesian modelling approach is presented and its use, inversely, is demonstrated in a relatively small but statistically challenging exercise: the reconstruction of prehistoric climate at Glendalough in Ireland from fossil pollen. This computationally intensive method extends current approaches by explicitly modelling uncertainty and reconstructing entire climate histories. The statistical issues that are raised relate to the use of compositional data (pollen) with covariates (climate) which are available at many modern sites but are missing for the fossil data. The compositional data arise as mixtures and the missing covariates have a temporal structure. Novel aspects of the analysis include a spatial process model for compositional data, local modelling of lattice data, the use, as a prior, of a random walk with long-tailed increments, a two-stage implementation of the Markov chain Monte Carlo approach and a fast approximate procedure for cross-validation in inverse problems. We present some details, contrasting its reconstructions with those which have been generated by a method in use in the palaeoclimatology literature. We suggest that the method provides a basis for resolving important challenging issues in palaeoclimate research. We draw attention to several challenging statistical issues that need to be overcome.     

Bandwidth-based nonparametric inference

Nonparametric curve estimation is an extremely common statistical procedure. While its primary purpose has been exploratory, some advances in inference have been made. This paper provides a critical review of inferential tests that make fundamental use of a key element of nonparametric smoothing, the bandwidth, to determine the significance of certain features. A major focus is on two important problems that have been tackled using bandwidth-based inference: testing for the multimodality of a density and testing for the monotonicity of a regression curve. Early research in bandwidth-based inference is surveyed, as well as recent theoretical advances. Possible future directions in bandwidth-based inference are discussed.     

The Effects of a Creative Dance and Movement Program on the Social Competence of Head Start Preschoolers

The effects of an eight‐week instructional program in creative dance/movement on the social competence of low‐income preschool children were assessed in this study utilizing a scientifically rigorous design. Forty preschool children from a large Head Start program were randomly assigned to participate in either an experimental dance program or an attention control group. Teachers and parents, blind to the children's group membership, rated children's social competence both before and after the program, using English and Spanish versions of the Social Competence Behavior Evaluation: Preschool Edition. The results revealed significantly greater positive gains over time in the children's social competence and both internalizing and externalizing behavior problems for the experimental group compared with the control group. Small‐group creative dance instruction for at‐risk preschoolers appears to be an excellent mechanism for enhancing social competence and improving behavior. The implications for early childhood education and intervention are discussed.     

Development and Consideration of Global Policies for Managing the Future Risks of Poliovirus Outbreaks: Insights and Lessons Learned Through Modeling

The success of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative promises to bring large benefits, including sustained improvements in quality of life (i.e., cases of paralytic disease and deaths avoided) and costs saved from cessation of vaccination. Obtaining and maintaining these benefits requires that policymakers manage the transition from the current massive use of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) to a world without OPV and free of the risks of potential future reintroductions of live polioviruses. This article describes the analytical journey that began in 2001 with a retrospective case study on polio risk management and led to development of dynamic integrated risk, economic, and decision analysis tools to inform global policies for managing the risks of polio. This analytical journey has provided several key insights and lessons learned that will be useful to future analysts involved in similar complex decision-making processes.     

Facial expression in the presence of friends and strangers

This study investigated the effect of the physical presence of a friend or of a stranger on facial expressiveness. Pairs of friends and pairs of strangers (all women) were unobtrusively videotaped while they viewed together a number of emotional stimulus slides, and rated their individual emotional responses to them. Judges subsequently attempted to identify from the videotapes the emotions reported by each sender subject. Generally, expressions were more readily identified for women videotaped with friends than for those recorded with strangers. These results support the suggestion that the degree to which emotions are expressed depends on the role of an accompanying person. Altemative interpretations of this view are discussed.We thank Alan Fridlund and an anonymous reviewer for comments on a previous version of this paper.     

Practice and Research in Career Counseling and Development—2002

The authors present a review of the 2002 career development literature. The literature review is divided into the following areas: career theory, career assessment, career counseling interventions and practice, career counseling training and professional issues, and international issues in career counseling. The authors discuss the implications of the findings in this literature for career counseling practice.     

Redressing Inequity in Parent Care Among Siblings

When inequities occur in the division of labor among adult siblings caring for older parents, conflict may result. This paper uses equity theory as a framework for understanding the processes used by siblings to rectify imbalances in their parental responsibilities. The study is based on a sample of 40 focus group participants who described caregiving relationships among siblings. Consistent with equity theory, these participants used two approaches to redress inequities in their sibling caregiving relationships: requesting behavioral changes from siblings and making cognitive changes. The findings suggest that these two approaches can result in more perceived equity but may also lead to even greater perceived inequity and distress.