资产证券化与金融市场动态关系研究——基于美国CDO产品的证据

文章从产品市场链的视角出发,以美国代表性证券化产品CDO为例,从理论机理和实证检验两个方面研究了资产证券化与广义金融市场的动态关系。结果表明:资产证券化把房地产市场、信贷市场、债券市场和股票市场紧密联系在一起,形成一种独特的市场链结构,该市场链反映出证券化产品与各个金融市场之间的强弱关系以及风险传导顺序;短期内证券化产品与市场链上的远端市场关系很弱,长期内证券化产品与所有金融市场均保持一种稳定正向关系,说明证券化产品如若发生风险暴露,短期内风险只会在市场链的近端市场发生传导而不会影响到远端市场,但在长期,风险则会通过市场链传递给整个金融系统,最终可能引发市场动荡。     

Joint modelling of longitudinal binary data and survival data

The medical costs in an ageing society substantially increase when the incidences of chronic diseases, disabilities and inability to live independently are high. Healthy lifestyles not only affect elderly individuals but also influence the entire community. When assessing treatment efficacy, survival and quality of life should be considered simultaneously. This paper proposes the joint likelihood approach for modelling survival and longitudinal binary covariates simultaneously. Because some unobservable information is present in the model, the Monte Carlo EM algorithm and Metropolis-Hastings algorithm are used to find the estimators. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to evaluate the performance of the proposed model based on the accuracy and precision of the estimates. Real data are used to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed model.     

铁路站前框架式挡土型高架结构规划设计

连接铁路客站落客平台和周边道路的高架结构以梁式桥居多，宁杭高铁湖州站的站前北接线高架由于道路线形、建设工期、与客站地块衔接等原因，部分区段采用框架式挡土型结构。采用框架结构初步拟合、路面基层二次找坡、道路面层修正的三步骤方法拟合道路线形；采用箱涵式挡土墙为管线及人员检修预留空间，同时在挡土墙内底填充素混凝土以满足挡墙稳定性要求；在挡土墙的外侧顺道路方向设置钢筋混凝土墙体，增加结构的侧向刚度、改善结构受力；在结构与高填土路基段的交界区域，设置了搭板缓解路面差异沉降，并设置伸缩缝改善车辆行驶的平顺性。可为类似工程提供参考。     

Does Remittance Outflow Stimulate or Retard Economic Growth?

This article evaluates the association between remittance outflow (RMO) and economic growth in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. The results of this evaluation indicate that RMO Granger creates gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in three countries, namely, Bahrain, Oman and Saudi Arabia. Similarly, the results for causality from GDP per capita to RMO are significant for four countries, namely, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. The findings differ from those of the household consumption model, stating that higher RMO will decrease economic activity. GDP per capita is the main determinant of RMO, suggesting that economic growth promises and encourages continuous RMO and vice versa. The adverse impact of RMO can be minimized by encouraging the local population to be productive in the private sector, as local productivity will reduce the huge influx of foreign workers and provide valuable local investment opportunities to lessen the amount being remitted.     

新建本科院校“两型师资”队伍建设构想

新建本科院校的"地方性",决定了其师资队伍建设的内涵和理念,须紧密关注应用型人才培养以及地方社会经济发展的动态和脉搏。相较于"双师型"队伍建设,新建本科院校师资队伍建设的内涵应更为丰富,层次和水平需更高,即建设"两型师资"队伍。"两型师资"相对于"双师型"而言更多是内涵诠释和本质理解,它是指"应用实践型、技术创新型"的师资队伍,强调知识结构的应用实践能力和技术创新水平。在新建本科院校向应用技术大学迈进的过程中,"两型师资"在师资队伍建设中是一种理论的倡导、理念的深化和理想的实践。     

学术的流亡与再生：巴龙、吉尔伯特和克里斯特勒的文艺复兴研究刍论

20世纪下半叶，西方学界文艺复兴研究的中心发生了由欧洲至美国的“跨大西洋洲际转移”，汉斯·巴龙、菲利克斯·吉尔伯特和保罗·克里斯特勒三位德裔犹太学者在此过程中扮演了至关重要的角色。三位学者的学术背景和治学路径既有共性又存殊异，他们凭借各自在文艺复兴研究领域的标志性贡献，共同谱写了“意大利文艺复兴、美利坚制造”的浩荡历史篇章。     

文化生态视域下乡贤参与乡村旅游意向的区域差异与影响机制研究

以闽南文化生态保护区省外乡贤为研究对象,探讨乡贤角色感知、影响因素、行为意向和角色类型选择的差异及其影响机制.研究结果显示:第一,乡贤角色感知、影响因素和行为意向得分的差异不显著,角色感知略大于影响因素和行为意向;第二,乡贤参与乡村旅游的影响.因素和行为意向的闽南区域内部差异不显著,角色感知的闽南地区内部差异显著,厦门市受访者乡贤角色感知平均得分小于漳州市;第三,乡贤角色类型选择闽南区域内部差异不显著,参与实干并不是首要选择,受访者希望创新参与乡村旅游的模式;第四,乡贤角色感知、影响因素对行为意向有显著的正向影响,影响因素具有部分中介效应;第五,空间距离和经济发展水平是影响乡贤参与乡村旅游角色感知、影响因素和行为意向得分的重要因素.因此,引导乡贤参与乡村旅游,不仅要提高省外乡贤个体角色感知水平,特别是意识—技能方面的角色感知,还要关注影响乡贤参与乡村旅游的内、外部因素,特别是要营造良好的外部政策环境与氛围.     

中国特色社会主义进入新时代的理论之基

中国共产党是注重理论传承和理论赓续的党.中国特色社会主义进入新时代是党的理论自觉与理论自信"使然",更是党的理论赓续与理论创新的"必然".马克思主义、中国化马克思主义、当代中国马克思主义、21世纪马克思主义,既是深刻理解"自己时代精神的精华",又是准确把握党的理论形态的主线和主流,它们经过一脉相承、与时俱进的传承和发展,共同构筑了中国特色社会主义进入新时代的理论之基.     

川滇黔交界区域苗、彝、回族际通婚现状调查研究

历史上川滇黔交界区域苗、彝、回、汉等民族之间不通婚的情况在方志中有所记载，现当代的一些调查资料也反映出这一事实。新中国成立以来，随着族际交往日益频繁，当地各民族之间逐渐开始通婚，尤其是改革开放以后，族际通婚现象日益普遍，数量比例呈增长趋势，通婚半径也不断扩大。当地苗族、彝族、回族的族际通婚对象以汉族为主，且存在着民族、地区、性别等差异。从“族内婚”到大规模的“族际婚”，民族政策、外部环境、文化趋同等客观因素发挥了重要作用，而民族心理这一主观因素则起着决定性的作用。     

Modelling hierarchical clustered censored data with the hierarchical Kendall copula

This article proposes a new model for right‐censored survival data with multi‐level clustering based on the hierarchical Kendall copula model of Brechmann (2014) with Archimedean clusters. This model accommodates clusters of unequal size and multiple clustering levels, without imposing any structural conditions on the parameters or on the copulas used at various levels of the hierarchy. A step‐wise estimation procedure is proposed and shown to yield consistent and asymptotically Gaussian estimates under mild regularity conditions. The model fitting is based on multiple imputation, given that the censoring rate increases with the level of the hierarchy. To check the model assumption of Archimedean dependence, a goodness‐of test is developed. The finite‐sample performance of the proposed estimators and of the goodness‐of‐fit test is investigated through simulations. The new model is applied to data from the study of chronic granulomatous disease. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 47: 182–203; 2019 © 2019 Statistical Society of Canada