Differences in Expert and Lay Judgments of Risk: Myth or Reality?

This article evaluates the nine empirical studies that have been conducted on expert versus lay judgments of risk. Contrary to received wisdom, this study finds that there is little empirical evidence for the propositions (1) that experts judge risk differently from members of the public or (2) that experts are more veridical in their risk assessments. Methodological weaknesses in the early research are documented, and it is shown that the results of more recent studies are confounded by social and demographic factors that have been found to correlate with judgments of risk. Using a task-analysis taxonomy, a template is provided for the documentation of future studies of expert-lay differences/similarities that will facilitate analytic comparison.     

Family Therapy in a Biomedical Context

The role of family therapy has to be redefined in the wake of the reemergence of the medical model in psychiatry, which now encompasses biological, psychological, and social parameters. In this biopsychosocial model, the goal of biological therapy is to promote cognitive and affective regulation through the prescribing of neuroleptic and mood-stabilizing chemicals. The goal of individual psychological therapy is to teach individuals how to achieve intimate relationships and creative work productivity. The goal of social therapy, typified by family therapy, is to promote socialization, involving social belonging and obligation in terms of individual autonomy and freedom. One of the implications of allocating circumscribed objectives to the various therapies is that mental health professionals, even more in the future than in the past, will have to work together as collaborative team members.     

Examining the Effects of Community Satisfaction and Attachment on Individual Well‐Being*

Abstract Using data collected in a general population survey from a random sample of individuals in four communities in Pennsylvania, I examine the effects of community satisfaction and attachment on self‐assessed individual well‐being. I find substantial support for the hypothesis that satisfaction with the community and attachment to the community are associated independently and positively with individual well‐being. Bivariate and multiple correlation/regression analyses reveal that greater community satisfaction and attachment result in higher levels of perceived well‐being. Although the total explained variances of the community satisfaction and attachment measures are small, they do not differ substantially from various social and demographic factors that have been found to be associated with well‐being. I propose possible implications of these findings and make suggestions for future research.     

Polarization and progress in the black community: Earnings and status gains for young black males in the era of affirmative action

We examined the occupational mobility and earnings attainment of young black and white male workers in the period 1974–1981 for evidence of class polarization among blacks in the era following the 1960s' antidiscrimination legislation. Our model links occupational status and earnings to the social resources of education and father's socioeconomic status, using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, 1968–1981. The results suggest that such resources operated more strongly for advantaged blacks than for whites. But for less advantaged blacks, race remained a significant barrier. As predicted by the polarization hypothesis, enforcement of affirmative action guidelines was beneficial, but only to more qualified blacks.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the annual meetings of the Society for the Study of Social Problems, August 1987.     

Multimedia Benchmarking Analysis for Three Risk Assessment Models: RESRAD, MMSOILS, and MEPAS

This paper is one in a series that describes results of a benchmarking analysis initiated by the Department of Energy (DOE) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). An overview of the study is provided in a companion paper by Laniak et al. presented in this journal issue. The three models used in the study—RESRAD (DOE), MMSOILS (EPA), and MEPAS (DOE)—represent analytically-based tools that are used by the respective agencies for performing human exposure and health risk assessments. Both single media and multimedia benchmarking scenarios were developed and executed. In this paper, the multimedia scenario is examined. That scenario consists of a hypothetical landfill that initially contained uranium-238 and methylene chloride. The multimedia models predict the fate of these contaminants, plus the progeny of uranium-238, through the unsaturated zone, saturated zone, surface water, and atmosphere. Carcinogenic risks are calculated from exposure to the contaminants via multiple pathways. Results of the tests show that differences in model endpoint estimates arise from both differences in the models' mathematical formulations and assumptions related to the implementation of the scenarios.     

Public Perceptions of Everyday Food Hazards: A Psychometric Study

In this paper, we discuss the conduct and results of a study aimed at eliciting public perceptions of food-related hazards. This study employs the psychometric approach of Paul Slovic and colleagues and aims to extend the recent work of Sparks and Shepherd⁽¹⁾ on defining the primary dimensions of food-related risk perceptions. The study surveyed a nationally representative sample of the general public (respondents = 293; adjusted response rate = 30.1%). Respondents provided ratings on subsets of 22 potential food hazards (e.g., food irradiation and presence of listeria) on a total of 19 risk characteristics (e.g., "perceived severity of risk" and "adequacy of governmental regulations"). In spite of the use of a number of new characteristics and food hazards, Principal Components Analysis revealed a broadly similar factor structure to that obtained by Sparks and Shepherd,⁽¹⁾ suggesting the generalizability of the key dimensions (concerning the severity and awareness of hazards). Interestingly, the positioning in the factor space of potential hazards about which little was generally known (e.g., campylobacter) as being serious and in need of regulation, may suggest a possible "starting position" in the perception of new hazards that have not previously been the subject of risk communications.     

Results of National Alcohol Screening Day: college demographics, clinical characteristics, and comparison with online screening

OBJECTIVE: The authors evaluated the efficacy of the 2002 college-based National Alcohol Screening Day (NASD) by determining: (1) the demographic and clinical characteristics of the participants that were screened and (2) the degree to which those scoring at hazardous drinking levels received clinical intervention or were referred for further assessment or treatment. PARTICIPANTS: Of 45,368 participants, 23,334 were screened and 14,598 received some form of clinical intervention, defined as advice or referral. METHODS: The authors conducted nonparametric and univariate analyses to test for statistical differences in demographics, clinical-characteristics, and interventions-as a function of-screening mode. RESULTS: Nearly 34% of those screened in person had an AUDIT score of 8 or higher, indicating harmful or hazardous drinking. Of these, only 10% had ever undergone alcohol treatment. More than 58% of those screened online scored 8 or higher, and of this group, fewer than 6% had ever undergone alcohol treatment. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that the in-person event and the online interactive program associated with NASD are serving markedly different populations, particularly with regard to clinical indicators.