Historical epidemiology of smallpox in Åland,Finland: 1751–1890

We analyze a 140-year series of smallpox deaths in the Åland Islands, Finland. Vaccination, introduced in 1805, dramatically reduced the annual number of smallpox deaths. It also influenced the age distribution of smallpox deaths, changing smallpox from a childhood disease before 1805 to one which affected both adults and children after 1805. This appears to be due to the fact that Ålanders were usually vaccinated only once during childhood and often lost their immunity during adulthood. Spectral analysis of the prevaccination time series of smallpox deaths demonstrates a strong seven-year periodicity, reflecting the amount of time necessary to build up a cohort of nonimmune individuals. After the introduction of vaccination, the periodicity changes to eight years. The probability that a parish in Åland was affected by a smallpox epidemic is shown to be highly correlated with migration patterns and parish population sizes.     

The Enduring Significance of Racism: Discrimination and Delinquency Among Black American Youth

Prominent explanations of the overrepresentation of Black Americans in criminal justice statistics focus on the effects of neighborhood concentrated disadvantage, racial isolation, and social disorganization. We suggest that perceived personal discrimination is an important but frequently neglected complement to these factors. We test this hypothesis with longitudinal data on involvement in general and violent juvenile delinquency in a sample of Black youth from a variety of communities in 2 states. We examine the direct effects of concentrated disadvantage and racial isolation and the direct and mediating effects of social organization, support for violence, and personal discrimination. Consistent with our hypothesis, perceived personal discrimination has notable direct effects on both general and violent delinquency and is an important mediator between neighborhood structural conditions and offending; moreover, its effects exceed those associated with neighborhood conditions.     

论周作人后期散文风格

本文认为周作人心中“绅士鬼”抬头后散文文风由前期向后期转变 ,风格转向平柔、内省、中庸、隐晦、模糊、清苦和闲适。与“鲁迅风”散文风格相对而另成一格 ,文风柔淡犹疑有余 ,清醒、果断不足     

Rural Black Women and Depression: A Contextual Analysis

We use ecological systems theory to guide our investigation of depression among a sample of 102 married Black mothers residing in the rural South. Using self‐report data collected via computerized interviews during home visits, we conduct multivariate regression analyses, exploring the associations between depression and (a) spousal support and conflict, (b) cocaregiver support and conflict, (c) child conduct difficulties, and (d) socioeconomic risk. We hypothesize that each of these variables are associated with mothers' depression scores and that the extent to which these familial variables and depression are associated will vary across socioeconomic contexts. Socioeconomic risk, child conduct difficulties, and conflict with a cocaregiver were associated with women's depression in the full model. The moderational hypotheses were upheld for the variables of spousal support and child conduct difficulty. Spousal support and depression have a strong negative association under conditions of high socioeconomic risk and a nonsignificant relationship when socioeconomic risk is low. The association between child conduct difficulty and depression was exacerbated under high socioeconomic risk.     

Sibling Socialization of Competence in Rural,Single‐Parent African American Families

Older siblings' contributions to younger siblings' competence net of parenting processes were examined with 152 pairs of first‐born (M= 11.7 years) and second‐born (M= 9.2 years) siblings in rural, single‐parent African American families. The possible moderational effect of sibling conflict on the association between older and younger siblings' competence was also examined. Mothers reported their parenting practices, teachers assessed siblings' competence, and older siblings reported sibling conflict levels. Structural equation modeling indicated that parenting was linked with older siblings' competence, which in turn was linked with competence among younger siblings. Hierarchical multiple regression revealed that older and younger siblings' competencies were linked when sibling relationships included low levels of conflict.     

Racial Discrimination as a Moderator of the Links Among Stress,Maternal Psychological Functioning,and Family Relationships

This study focuses on the links between social contexts and normative family patterns to identify factors at the societal, community, family, and individual levels that enhance African Americans' ability to overcome stressful life events and foster positive family relationships. The Mundane Extreme Environmental Stress Model was used to explore these links. From urban and rural areas in Iowa and Georgia, 383 families with 10‐ or 11‐year‐old children were recruited. Structural equation modeling was used to test the hypotheses. Maternal psychological distress was linked with parent‐child relationship quality both directly and indirectly through its association with intimate partnership quality. When racial discrimination was greater, stronger links emerged between stressor pileup and psychological distress, as well as between psychological distress and the quality of both intimate partnerships and parent‐child relationships. Future research on African American family processes should include the effects of racial discrimination.     

Using Surveys in Public Participation Processes for Risk Decision Making: The Case of the 2003 British GM Nation? Public Debate

This article takes as its case study the “GM Nation?” public debate, a major participation process on the commercialization of agricultural biotechnology, which occurred in Britain during the summer of 2003. We investigate possible self‐selection biases in over 36,000 open questionnaire responses on the risks and benefits of genetically modified crops and food obtained during GM Nation? A comparison sample of equivalent responses from a statistically representative sample (n= 1,363) of the British general public obtained shortly after the conclusion of the debate is reported. This comparison shows that the GM Nation? open responses were indeed not fully representative of British “public opinion” regarding agricultural biotechnology. Rather, such opinion is not a unitary whole, but fragmented, with considerable ambivalence coexisting alongside outright opposition to GM agriculture. The methodological implications for multistage participation processes are discussed: in particular, the need to anticipate outcomes of complex design decisions, and to include representative public surveys as standard where measures of broader public attitudes to risk are an important objective.     

Family versus friends: Their relative importance as referent others to an aged population

There is much social gerontological research suggesting that the aged in our society constitute a minority group or separate stratum. This separateness, in combination with a lack of a clear conception of the elderly role, has led to a preponderance of stereotyped images of the elderly. A mailed questionnaire was returned by 224 retirees of a large utility company in the Southwest and provided a data base to test a conceptual model of the dynamics of the process of acceptance or denial of age‐appropriate behavioral expectations. The model, grounded in the reference group theoretical approach, was concerned expressly with the operationalization of factors thought to influence whether the elderly accept age‐appropriate behavioral expectations as pertinent to their life situation. Whether the people in this particular population accept others' expectations for their behavior was found to be affected by their perception of the expectations of family members and friends and whether the respondents characterized themselves as subject to age‐related shortcomings. In addition, friends were found to be a more salient reference group in conveying age‐appropriate behavioral expectations than family members. The analysis provided general support for the reference group approach and suggested a broader application of the concept in the gerontological literature.     

Empirical Bayes confidence intervals shrinking both means and variances

Summary.  We construct empirical Bayes intervals for a large number p of means. The existing intervals in the literature assume that variances     are either equal or unequal but known. When the variances are unequal and unknown, the suggestion is typically to replace them by unbiased estimators     . However, when p is large, there would be advantage in 'borrowing strength' from each other. We derive double-shrinkage intervals for means on the basis of our empirical Bayes estimators that shrink both the means and the variances. Analytical and simulation studies and application to a real data set show that, compared with the t -intervals, our intervals have higher coverage probabilities while yielding shorter lengths on average. The double-shrinkage intervals are on average shorter than the intervals from shrinking the means alone and are always no longer than the intervals from shrinking the variances alone. Also, the intervals are explicitly defined and can be computed immediately.     

The Aggregation of Expert Judgment: Do Good Things Come to Those Who Weight?

Good policy making should be based on available scientific knowledge. Sometimes this knowledge is well established through research, but often scientists must simply express their judgment, and this is particularly so in risk scenarios that are characterized by high levels of uncertainty. Usually in such cases, the opinions of several experts will be sought in order to pool knowledge and reduce error, raising the question of whether individual expert judgments should be given different weights. We argue—against the commonly advocated “classical method”—that no significant benefits are likely to accrue from unequal weighting in mathematical aggregation. Our argument hinges on the difficulty of constructing reliable and valid measures of substantive expertise upon which to base weights. Practical problems associated with attempts to evaluate experts are also addressed. While our discussion focuses on one specific weighting scheme that is currently gaining in popularity for expert knowledge elicitation, our general thesis applies to externally imposed unequal weighting schemes more generally.