德国埃姆歇地区的空间、生态和经济更新——埃姆歇景观公园规划(2000～2010)

一、埃姆歇地区概况和发展历史 鲁尔区是德国最大的工业中心,人口大约540万,面积4432平方公里.历史上鲁尔区是以采煤、钢铁、化学、机械制造等重工业为核心的传统老工业区.鲁尔区根据工业化程度可以划分为四个地区:南区、赫尔威格区、埃姆歇区和里普区.埃姆歇地区因埃姆歇河而得名,面积803平方公里,包括从杜伊斯堡到贝卡门总共17个城市,人口200多万.埃姆歇地区是重工业区域,工业历史长达150年.由于20世纪70年代国际市场发生改变,鲁尔区工业变得缺乏竞争力,工厂关闭,工人下岗.其中埃姆歇地区受影响最为严重,生态恶化,失业率居高不下,80年代末失业率超过15%,为德国最高,社会问题尖锐.     

Was there compression of disability for older Americans from 1992 to 2003?

Medical advances and the growth of the elderly population have focused interest on trends in the health of the elderly. Three theories have been advanced to describe these trends: compression of morbidity, expansion of morbidity, and dynamic equilibrium. We applied multistate life table methods to the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey to estimate active and disabled life expectancy from 1992 to 2003, defining disability as having difficulty with instrumental activities of daily living or activities of daily living. We found increases in active life expectancy past age 65 and decreases in life expectancy with severe disability. These trends are consistent with elements of both the theory of compression of morbidity and the theory of dynamic equilibrium.     

论素质教育与教师素质

实施素质教育是我国教育改革的“重点工程”,而素质教育的实施须依赖于广大教师,依赖于广大教师提高自身的思想政治。教育理论、科学文化、教学业务、创造力等方面的素质。广大教师只有努力提高自身素质,才能担负起实施素质教育的重任。     

Inferences for a Partially Varying Coefficient Model With Endogenous Regressors

In this article, we propose a new class of semiparametric instrumental variable models with partially varying coefficients, in which the structural function has a partially linear form and the impact of endogenous structural variables can vary over different levels of some exogenous variables. We propose a three-step estimation procedure to estimate both functional and constant coefficients. The consistency and asymptotic normality of these proposed estimators are established. Moreover, a generalized F-test is developed to test whether the functional coefficients are of particular parametric forms with some underlying economic intuitions, and furthermore, the limiting distribution of the proposed generalized F-test statistic under the null hypothesis is established. Finally, we illustrate the finite sample performance of our approach with simulations and two real data examples in economics.     

Quantile regression for large-scale data via sparse exponential transform method

In recent decades, quantile regression has received much more attention from academics and practitioners. However, most of existing computational algorithms are only effective for small or moderate size problems. They cannot solve quantile regression with large-scale data reliably and efficiently. To this end, we propose a new algorithm to implement quantile regression on large-scale data using the sparse exponential transform (SET) method. This algorithm mainly constructs a well-conditioned basis and a sampling matrix to reduce the number of observations. It then solves a quantile regression problem on this reduced matrix and obtains an approximate solution. Through simulation studies and empirical analysis of a 5% sample of the US 2000 Census data, we demonstrate efficiency of the SET-based algorithm. Numerical results indicate that our new algorithm is effective in terms of computation time and performs well for large-scale quantile regression.     

《明夷待访录》在清代中后期的传抄、阅读和接受

在清代文化政策的高压之下,《明夷待访录》始终处在思想潜流之中。道咸之际,《明夷待访录》在广东和江南重新刊刻,这些刊本的背后代表着抄本的积累以及学者思想旨趣的转移。新见薛福成和袁昶的抄本以及其他《明夷待访录》抄校本,不仅体现了抄本与刻本的接力,更展示出咸丰以降士人群体转相传抄《明夷待访录》的盛况。同治年间以金陵书局为中心,士林形成了抄录、阅读和讨论《明夷待访录》的新风尚。然而学人对《明夷待访录》中的制度设计充满了困惑和异议,对其的否定和批评构成了时代的一般看法。撰成于清初而到晚清大放异彩的《明夷待访录》并非百年无闻,而是以抄本形式隐隐流传,士林对其的认识亦曲折多变。借由多部新见《明夷待访录》抄本,不仅可以一窥抄本文化中展现的思想活力,同时可见清代中后期士人政治理念的分裂与变异。     

乡村振兴背景下民族地区新型城镇化-旅游产业-生态环境协调发展研究——以四川、云南、甘肃、青海四省为研究区域

本文构建四省民族地区新型城镇化-旅游产业-生态环境协调发展评价指标体系,运用耦合协调模型、地理探测器和灰色预测模型展现、分析及预测四省民族地区新型城镇化、旅游产业与生态环境（以下简称“UTE”系统）协调关系及演进过程。研究发现2008-2018年该区域UTE系统协调水平不断优化上升,内部发展不均衡,差距进一步拉大;新型城镇化领先,旅游产业和生态环境滞后是总体特征;经济发展和生态环境改善是制约和影响耦合度的关键因素;未来协调度稳步提升,但演进速度区域差异明显。基于此提出尊重和保护文化环境为四省民族地区的发展基础、加强区域合作、构建区域发展协调保障机制的建议。     

儿童如何参与研究：基于照片引谈法的解读

照片引谈法是一种基于艺术的研究方法。用于儿童研究能为儿童赋权增能,支持儿童借助视觉表达自身的真实生活样态,进行自我的知识建构,也能获取更多、有更好信度与效度的研究数据。儿童研究中的照片引谈法程序包括确定研究主题和目标、邀请儿童参与、选择摄影工具、明确拍摄要求、整理照片、正式引谈、分析资料形成结论七个步骤,对儿童与成人的权力反思贯穿于全过程。未来使儿童成为积极的研究参与者需要关注方法论层面的思考,增强对研究伦理的观照,融合多学科领域的理念和方法,增强包容性。     

Stereotype and National Attachment in Hong Kong Chinese Context: A Moderated Mediation Model of Perceived Inter-group Relationship and Age

The present study investigated the relationship between Hong Kong people’s stereotype toward Mainland people and their own national attachment (i.e., national identity, constructive patriotism, and uncritical patriotism). The role of inter-group relationship as mediator and age as moderator of that relationship were also tested. A total of 1753 local Hong Kong people aged 17–80 (mean age = 20.35 years, SD = 5.02) completed anonymous questionnaires regarding their stereotypes toward Mainland people, inter-group relationship with Mainland people, and national attachment. As expected, stereotypes toward Mainland people, inter-group relationship and national attachment showed significant positive associations with each other. More interestingly, it was found that the inter-group relationship mediated the relationship between stereotypes toward Mainland people and three domains of national attachment, with this indirect link being weaker for younger Hong Kong adults than for older Hong Kong adults. Implications of the present findings for future research are discussed, as well as potential interventions for increasing subjective national attachment to China, especially in young Hong Kong people.     

新一代的解构与重建：香港经验

本文分析了新一代在二十一世纪所面临的三大解构危机:失连、失力和失位,并结合香港的长期研究与实践,分享帮助新一代重建结连、抗逆力与参与的经验.