许筠的情感美学观研究

许筠的情感美学观摆脱性理学的性情美学,阐明了情感的美学意义。其情感美学观包括三方面内容,即:对情感的本体化认识;情感的审美品格;情感的审美之境。     

国际人权保护:成就、问题与对策

战后,国际人权保护取得了较大的成就,却也还存在不少问题。要想摆脱困境,在国际人权保护中必须加强人权对话;坚持尊重国家主权和不干涉内政的原则;正确处理人道主义干涉与国际人权保护的关系;强化联合国的领导地位,完善国际干预机制。     

从清末检察制度的创立谈法制变革的阻力

清末法制变革的倡行者尽管在司法改革的必要性上形成普遍共识,但是对司法权是否应当独立于君权这一关键问题的认知却存在歧义。检察制度在清末得以顺利创立的主要原因在于检察制度的相关内容既与权力争夺的重心关联不大,也不触及传统的伦常纲教,同时还有利于君主利用司法权的分散来操控司法。从清末检察制度创立可以看出,法制变革的最大阻力来自利益相关者对自身利益的维护,如何协调与平衡法制变革相关者之间的利益关系是决定法制变革成败的关键。法制变革的顶层设计必须警惕利益相关者之间的利益纷争对法制变革的阻力,而设计者对自身利益与改革目标两者之间得失权衡所表现出的态度是至关重要的。     

Smoothing for discrete-valued time series

We deal with smoothed estimators for conditional probability functions of discrete-valued time series { Y_t } under two different settings. When the conditional distribution of Y_t given its lagged values falls in a parametric family and depends on exogenous random variables, a smoothed maximum (partial) likelihood estimator for the unknown parameter is proposed. While there is no prior information on the distribution, various nonparametric estimation methods have been compared and the adjusted Nadaraya–Watson estimator stands out as it shares the advantages of both Nadaraya–Watson and local linear regression estimators. The asymptotic normality of the estimators proposed has been established in the manner of sparse asymptotics, which shows that the smoothed methods proposed outperform their conventional, unsmoothed, parametric counterparts under very mild conditions. Simulation results lend further support to this assertion. Finally, the new method is illustrated via a real data set concerning the relationship between the number of daily hospital admissions and the levels of pollutants in Hong Kong in 1994–1995. An ad hoc model selection procedure based on a local Akaike information criterion is proposed to select the significant pollutant indices.     

境界高妙神韵天成——中国山水田园诗的审美意趣

中国山水田园诗的发展深受儒、道、禅尤其是道家哲学和美学思想的影响。中国山水田园诗的审美意趣主要体现在三个方面:纯朴清新、浑然天成的自然美;传神写意、诗中有画的意境美;味外之味、韵外之致的神韵美。     

Application of Bayesian Networks in Quantitative Risk Assessment of Subsea Blowout Preventer Operations

This article proposes a methodology for the application of Bayesian networks in conducting quantitative risk assessment of operations in offshore oil and gas industry. The method involves translating a flow chart of operations into the Bayesian network directly. The proposed methodology consists of five steps. First, the flow chart is translated into a Bayesian network. Second, the influencing factors of the network nodes are classified. Third, the Bayesian network for each factor is established. Fourth, the entire Bayesian network model is established. Lastly, the Bayesian network model is analyzed. Subsequently, five categories of influencing factors, namely, human, hardware, software, mechanical, and hydraulic, are modeled and then added to the main Bayesian network. The methodology is demonstrated through the evaluation of a case study that shows the probability of failure on demand in closing subsea ram blowout preventer operations. The results show that mechanical and hydraulic factors have the most important effects on operation safety. Software and hardware factors have almost no influence, whereas human factors are in between. The results of the sensitivity analysis agree with the findings of the quantitative analysis. The three‐axiom‐based analysis partially validates the correctness and rationality of the proposed Bayesian network model.     

论高职学生素养教育中敬畏意识的培育

素养教育是一项极其崇高的事业,它直接关系到国家应用型人才的培养和民族实业的走向。本文以北京财贸职业学院财贸素养教育为一个研究视角,谈高校辅导员在财贸素养教育中如何培育学生的敬畏意识,让同学们肩负起责任,成为"有爱心、讲诚信、负责任"的新时期财贸大学生。     

近年来政策网络理论的研究述评

近年来国内外学界对政策网络理论研究的很多，但研究重点差异较大。国外学者主要是在较为微观层面上探讨“政策网络”，国内则基本停留在对“政策网络”整体层面的研究，其重要原因就是在于没有对这一理论涉及的几个重要概念进行清楚的界定和区分，因而也就不能理解作为把握“政策网络”理论的现实价值与理论意义。作为政策研究的一种新的分析工具和概念框架，政策网络对我国的政策研究和政治实践具有一定的借鉴价值和现实启示，可以借鉴政策网络理论，创新我国公共政策过程。     

Partitioning k multivariate normal populations according to equivalence with respect to a standard vector

We propose optimal procedures to achieve the goal of partitioning k multivariate normal populations into two disjoint subsets with respect to a given standard vector. Definition of good or bad multivariate normal populations is given according to their Mahalanobis distances to a known standard vector as being small or large. Partitioning k multivariate normal populations is reduced to partitioning k non-central Chi-square or non-central F distributions with respect to the corresponding non-centrality parameters depending on whether the covariance matrices are known or unknown. The minimum required sample size for each population is determined to ensure that the probability of correct decision attains a certain level. An example is given to illustrate our procedures.     

论大学生可持续发展意识的自我培养

社会经济可持续发展的前提是人的可持续发展.大学生作为未来社会发展的骨干,只有加强可持续发展意识的自我培养,树立可持续发展的人才观、学习观、职业观,才能推动社会的不断进步,实现自身的人生价值.