Frequentist and Bayesian approaches for a joint model for prostate cancer risk and longitudinal prostate-specific antigen data

The paper describes the use of frequentist and Bayesian shared-parameter joint models of longitudinal measurements of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and the risk of prostate cancer (PCa). The motivating dataset corresponds to the screening arm of the Spanish branch of the European Randomized Screening for Prostate Cancer study. The results show that PSA is highly associated with the risk of being diagnosed with PCa and that there is an age-varying effect of PSA on PCa risk. Both the frequentist and Bayesian paradigms produced very close parameter estimates and subsequent 95% confidence and credibility intervals. Dynamic estimations of disease-free probabilities obtained using Bayesian inference highlight the potential of joint models to guide personalized risk-based screening strategies.     

Veto in fixed agenda social choice correspondences

In this paper we analyze the relationship between social decision functions (SDF) and fixed agenda social choice correspondences (fixed agenda SCC), satisfying some rationality conditions (such as Pareto, Independence, Monotonicity, Neutrality or Anonimity), with the aim of translating known results on the existence of individuals with veto power into the fixed agenda framework (e.g., Blair and Pollak [2], Blau and Deb [3], …). In order to do this, a new independence condition (which we call Pseudo-Independence), as well as a notion of veto power, are introduced in the context of fixed agenda SCC. The conclusion is that, by fixing the agenda, under Independence and Pareto assumptions, the existence of individuals with veto power cannot be avoided. Received: 6 November 1995 / Accepted: 9 September 1997     

Bayesian assessment of times to diagnosis in breast cancer screening

Breast cancer is one of the diseases with the most profound impact on health in developed countries and mammography is the most popular method for detecting breast cancer at a very early stage. This paper focuses on the waiting period from a positive mammogram until a confirmatory diagnosis is carried out in hospital. Generalized linear mixed models are used to perform the statistical analysis, always within the Bayesian reasoning. Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms are applied for estimation by simulating the posterior distribution of the parameters and hyperparameters of the model through the free software WinBUGS.     

Does the marriage market sex ratio affect parental sex selection? Evidence from the Chinese census

Recent increases in the (male/female) sex ratio at birth in eastern Asia are thought to be associated with a preference for sons and to result from parental sex selection. However, males are less likely to marry and to have offspring as the ratio increases, and that decreases the expected number of grandchildren. Using data from the 2000 Chinese census, we test whether the sex ratio in the marriage market has an effect on the gender of subsequent births and hence on the sex ratio of the birth cohort. The slow population growth caused by the Great Famine in the early 1960s and the quick recovery that followed produced major changes in the sex ratio for those of marriageable age two decades later. We estimate that an increase of 1 % in the number of marriageable males relative to females, the marriage market sex ratio, would decrease the probability of having a son by 0.02 percentage points. That implies that the Great Famine, which occurred around 1960, led to an increase in the early 1980s of 5.8 extra male births per 100 females.     

Laypeople''s and Experts'' Perception of Nanotechnology Hazards

Public perception of nanotechnology may influence the realization of technological advances. Laypeople's (N=375) and experts' (N=46) perception of 20 different nanotechnology applications and three nonnanotechnology applications were examined. The psychometric paradigm was utilized and applications were described in short scenarios. Results showed that laypeople and experts assessed asbestos as much more risky than nanotechnology applications. Analyses of aggregated data suggested that perceived dreadfulness of applications and trust in governmental agencies are important factors in determining perceived risks. Similar results were observed for experts and laypeople, but the latter perceived greater risks than the former. Analyses of individual data showed that trust, perceived benefits, and general attitudes toward technology influenced the perceived risk of laypeople. In the expert sample, confidence in governmental agencies was an important predictor of risks associated with nanotechnology applications. Results suggest that public concerns about nanotechnology would diminish if measures were taken to enhance laypeople's trust in governmental agencies.     

Estimating Engel curves: a new way to improve the SILC-HBS matching process using GLM methods

Microdata are required to evaluate the distributive impact of the taxation system as a whole (direct and indirect taxes) on individuals or households. However, in European Union countries this information is usually distributed into two separate surveys: the Household Budget Surveys (HBS), including total household expenditure and its composition, and EU Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC), including detailed information about households'' income and direct (but not indirect) taxes paid. We present a parametric statistical matching procedure to merge both surveys. For the first stage of matching, we propose estimating total household expenditure in HBS (Engel curves) using a GLM estimator, instead of the traditionally used OLS method. It is a better alternative, insofar as it can deal with the heteroskedasticity problem of the OLS estimates, while making it unnecessary to retransform the regressors estimated in logarithms. To evaluate these advantages of the GLM estimator, we conducted a computational Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, when an error term is added to the deterministic imputation of expenditure in the EU-SILC, we propose replacing the usual Normal distribution of the error with a Chi-square type, which allows a better approximation to the original expenditures variance in the HBS. An empirical analysis is provided using Spanish surveys for years 2012–2016. In addition, we extend the empirical analysis to the rest of the European Union countries, using the surveys provided by Eurostat (EU-SILC, 2011; HBS, 2010).     

The Balanced Worth: A Procedure to Evaluate Performance in Terms of Ordered Attributes

There are many problems in the social sciences that refer to the evaluation of the relative performance of some populations when their members’ achievements are described by a distribution of outcomes over a set of ordered categories. A new method for the evaluation of this type of problems is presented here. That method, called balanced worth, offers a cardinal, complete and transitive evaluation that is based on the likelihood of getting better results. The evaluation of each society is based on the probability of obtaining better results with respect to the others. The balanced worth is a refinement of “the worth” (Herrero and Villar in PLoS ONE 8(12):e84784, 2013.  https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0084784) that overcomes its excessive sensitivity to the differences, due to the presence of ties. We also discuss how this method can be applied for the case of heterogeneous populations and show how it can be applied in different contexts. An empirical example, regarding life satisfaction in Spain is used to illustrate the working of this method.     

The education of children in care and children in need: Who falls behind and when?

We seek to explain the development of the educational gap between children in “out‐of‐home care” (CLA), children deemed in social need (CIN), and other pupils. A cohort of 642,805 pupils aged 16 in 2013 was used to chart the educational progress of the full cohort, the CLA (n = 6,236), the CIN in 2012 or 2013 but not CLA (n = 20,384), and a sample individually matched with the CLA (n = 11,084). At age 7, attainment of the CLA and CIN was approximately 1 standard deviation lower than the cohort average and predicted attainment at 16. At this point, the persistent “CIN” (those with earlier and persistent needs) had the lowest attainment relative to others, and this declined further during secondary school. Those entering care before or during primary school had very low attainment at age 7, but their relative attainment did not decline. Attainment of CLA and CIN at age 16 likely reflects early environment, special educational needs, and poor relationships with secondary school. Policy, research, and intervention should focus on CIN as well as CLA, do so before entry to care, and take account of the onset of, and probable reasons for, educational difficulties.