大中城市城郊失地农民的现状调查分析（I）

随着中国城市化进程的加快，在社会主体层面上直接表现为农民身份向市民身份的嬗变和转型。基于此背景，结合对某地区失地农民的120份调查问卷分析，从失地农民主体角度探讨他们对失地农民这一强制性身份的认同程度及其影响因素。研究发现，健全的社会保障体系、稳定工作和收入、城市生活方式及思想观念等3个因素最终影响着失地农民的身份认同。其中健全的社会保障体系、稳定工作和收入、城市生活方式及思想观念对失地农民身份认同起着不可替代的作用，且由大到小影响着失地农民的身份认同。     

HEAVY-TAILED-DISTRIBUTED THRESHOLD STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY MODELS IN FINANCIAL TIME SERIES

To capture mean and variance asymmetries and time‐varying volatility in financial time series, we generalize the threshold stochastic volatility (THSV) model and incorporate a heavy‐tailed error distribution. Unlike existing stochastic volatility models, this model simultaneously accounts for uncertainty in the unobserved threshold value and in the time‐delay parameter. Self‐exciting and exogenous threshold variables are considered to investigate the impact of a number of market news variables on volatility changes. Adopting a Bayesian approach, we use Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to estimate all unknown parameters and latent variables. A simulation experiment demonstrates good estimation performance for reasonable sample sizes. In a study of two international financial market indices, we consider two variants of the generalized THSV model, with US market news as the threshold variable. Finally, we compare models using Bayesian forecasting in a value‐at‐risk (VaR) study. The results show that our proposed model can generate more accurate VaR forecasts than can standard models.     

Test for homogeneity in Hardy–Weinberg normal mixture model

The phenotype of a quantitative trait locus (QTL) is often modeled by a finite mixture of normal distributions. If the QTL effect depends on the number of copies of a specific allele one carries, then the mixture model has three components. In this case, the mixing proportions have a binomial structure according to the Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium. In the search for QTL, a significance test of homogeneity against the Hardy–Weinberg normal mixture model alternative is an important first step. The LOD score method, a likelihood ratio test used in genetics, is a favored choice. However, there is not yet a general theory for the limiting distribution of the likelihood ratio statistic in the presence of unknown variance. This paper derives the limiting distribution of the likelihood ratio statistic, which can be described by the supremum of a quadratic form of a Gaussian process. Further, the result implies that the distribution of the modified likelihood ratio statistic is well approximated by a chi-squared distribution. Simulation results show that the approximation has satisfactory precision for the cases considered. We also give a real-data example.     

景颇族居住环境及文化分析

影响居住环境的有地理和人文两大因素。该文在分析景颇族居住环境的基础上 ,通过对组成景颇族居住环境的地貌、植物、建筑、小品、装饰、民族风情广场等要素的特色进一步地分析 ,探讨了景颇族文化的内涵。尝试为多元化的现代园林设计提供富有民族特色的素材。     

网络经济对企业管理的影响

网络经济的产生 ,对社会经济生活的方方面面都带来了巨大的影响 ,处在工业经济向网络经济转轨时期的企业 ,更面临着众多的挑战和机遇。企业外部的生存与发展环境和内部组织结构都将发生新的变化 ,信息和知识日益成为企业生产经营的关键要素 ,网络经济对企业的管理目标、管理理念、管理内容、管理方法与手段都将产生重大影响。     

LiNbO_3电光调制器行波电极优化设计

分析了厚电极厚缓冲层的共面波导Mach-Zehnder行波电极LiNbO3光调制器,讨论了电极厚度和缓冲层厚度对调制器特性参数的影响,得到了调制器的有效折射率、特征阻抗、半波电压及损耗系数等参数。通过对比分析,选择合适的电极厚度和缓冲层厚度,优化调制器性能,近似满足速度和阻抗匹配,实现了图宽带调制。     

CCD图象检测信号的失真校正

本文从CCD图象输入系统误差引起图象检测信号失真的原因分析出发,以降低系统装校误差精度要求和增大元器件离散性的宽容度为目标,讨论朱真校正方法的原理和数学描述。最后,介绍两种失真校正方法。     

陶土坩埚玻璃拉丝机用红外测控仪的研制

介绍了对陶土坩埚玻璃拉丝机加装红外测控仪的原理、方法及试用效果。     

论红学的边界性

《红楼梦》自诞生以来，被当成各种属性的文本，它在不同的学科领域被接受，而对于任何一个学科来说，《红楼梦》的阅读现象都呈现出一种边界性。这根源于文本《红楼梦》的边界性，它本身具有小说学、经学、朴学的因素。这种边界性正是红学的生机之所在。边界性不等于混乱与无充，从方法论看，红学具有两个世界；事实还原的世界和意义诠释的世界。     

耕牛青(木冈)树叶中毒发病机制的探讨

耕牛青(?)树叶中毒,目前其发病数已列居于有毒植物中毒之首位。笔者通过多年的探索,对其性质、相关制约因素和发病机制有了进一步了解。对发病机制提出了看法。