新世纪以来中国农村扶贫开发面临的困境

我国农村扶贫开发的成绩是骄人的,改革开放以来农村扶贫取得了举世公认的成果,贫困人口大规模缩减,生活水平大幅度提高,贫困地区的基础设施建设成效显著.但由于环境的制约和经济社会发展不平衡,我国农村扶贫开发仍然面临着严峻的挑战.本文着眼于新世纪以来农村扶贫面临的困境,并进行较深入的剖析.     

Extending social security coverage to the rural sector in China

In late 2009 China launched an innovative, voluntary programme that by 2011 had extended pension coverage to 326.4 million people in the rural sector, including contributors and beneficiaries. It requires one contribution per year and provides a flat‐rate benefit and a contributions‐related benefit through a contributory individual account, with a government guarantee that the benefit will continue for life. The programme encourages participation of persons who do not pay income taxes, and thus have no tax incentive to participate, by providing substantial government subsidies. As a further incentive, old‐age benefits are provided to older parents when all their adult children participate in the contributory programme.     

民国苏州浴室业发展述论

民国苏州的浴室主要由客籍人士经营,为本地人提供服务。对比上海、扬州等地,苏州浴室业的经营方式、理念和技术设备相对落后。苏州浴室的分布明显受到商业资本不断集中、厂矿等现代工业大发展的影响,依附在以经济和现代交通为轴心的商业圈中。在动荡环境中,苏州浴室业仍有所适应和发展。     

The Longitudinal Relationships Between Basic Psychological Needs Satisfaction at School and School-Related Subjective Well-Being in Adolescents

Situated within a positive psychology perspective, this study aimed at examining the nature and directionality of longitudinal relationships between basic psychological needs satisfaction at school and adolescents’ school-related subjective well-being. A total of 576 students (40.5 male and 36.8 % students in junior high school) completed measures of adolescent students’ basic psychological needs at school and school-related subjective well-being at two time points, 6 weeks apart. Cross-lagged structural equation modeling showed significant bidirectional longitudinal relationships between autonomy, relatedness, and competence needs satisfaction and school satisfaction. Furthermore, significant bidirectional relationships were observed between competence need satisfaction and positive affect in school. The findings provided important evidence of the roles of adolescents’ different types of needs satisfaction, experienced specifically during school, in adolescents’ school-related subjective well-being. The findings also helped extend the positive psychology perspective to the relatively neglected context of education.     

抗战前后刘湘的政治抉择新论

对刘湘的评价长期以抗日战争为分野,形成二元对立的状态:抗战之前刘湘被视为“反动军阀”,之后则被誉为抗日“爱国将领”的模范式人物.其实,刘湘一生的政治选择具有内在的一致性而非简单的“转变”:不管是在军阀混战还是在抗战时期,其身上均伴随有四川军阀“统一全川”和“川人治川”的观念,极力维护自己在四川的统治地位,即便是对抗日问题的选择,同样是对于自身利益和国家利益的综合考量,即在“救国”的目的之外,还希望通过抗日来抵制蒋介石对四川的控制.而当时国家主义与地方主义升降变迁所造成的国家局势变化,是刘湘选择出川抗日背后重要的时代原因.     

美国中小企业技术创新计划管理实践及启示——以TIP为例

美国技术创新计划(TIP)支持有科技优势的中小企业进行目标明确的变革性技术研发,以促进中小企业的技术创新和提升美国的竞争力。它的资助与管理具有支持企业面向国家需求的变革性研究、设立专门的咨询委员会、坚持以同行评议进行项目遴选等基本特点,以及具有把扁平化的组织管理与"跨办公室"工作模式相结合、"自上而下"与"自下而上"相结合、实行全过程管理与结果管理相结合等工作机制。它为我国科技计划管理改革带来的重要启示在于要面向国家产业需求,支持和引导中小企业的变革性技术研究;倡建中小企业创新联盟,鼓励高校、科研院所为中小企业服务;加强后评估研究工作,重视影响评估对科技计划管理的作用。     

“文人”概念起源考释

"文人"是一个发展性概念,其远源是"士"。在西周到春秋初叶,"文人"指有文德的人。春秋战国之际,"文士"崛起。到东汉时,"文人"等同"文士",指那些有较高文化水平和代表社会道义的知识阶层的成员。     

An Integrated Risk Assessment Model of Township‐Scaled Land Subsidence Based on an Evidential Reasoning Algorithm and Fuzzy Set Theory

Land subsidence risk assessment (LSRA) is a multi‐attribute decision analysis (MADA) problem and is often characterized by both quantitative and qualitative attributes with various types of uncertainty. Therefore, the problem needs to be modeled and analyzed using methods that can handle uncertainty. In this article, we propose an integrated assessment model based on the evidential reasoning (ER) algorithm and fuzzy set theory. The assessment model is structured as a hierarchical framework that regards land subsidence risk as a composite of two key factors: hazard and vulnerability. These factors can be described by a set of basic indicators defined by assessment grades with attributes for transforming both numerical data and subjective judgments into a belief structure. The factor‐level attributes of hazard and vulnerability are combined using the ER algorithm, which is based on the information from a belief structure calculated by the Dempster‐Shafer (D‐S) theory, and a distributed fuzzy belief structure calculated by fuzzy set theory. The results from the combined algorithms yield distributed assessment grade matrices. The application of the model to the Xixi‐Chengnan area, China, illustrates its usefulness and validity for LSRA. The model utilizes a combination of all types of evidence, including all assessment information—quantitative or qualitative, complete or incomplete, and precise or imprecise—to provide assessment grades that define risk assessment on the basis of hazard and vulnerability. The results will enable risk managers to apply different risk prevention measures and mitigation planning based on the calculated risk states.     

An improved two-stage procedure to compare hazard curves

Qiu and Sheng has proposed a powerful and robust two-stage procedure to compare two hazard rate functions. In this paper we improve their method by using the Fisher test to combine the asymptotically independent p-values obtained from the two stages of their procedure. In addition, we extend the procedure to situations with multiple hazard rate functions. Our comprehensive simulation study shows that the proposed method has a good performance in terms of controlling the type I error rate and of detecting power. Three real data applications are considered for illustrating the use of the new method.     

Selecting the normal population with the smallest variance: A restricted subset selection rule

Consider k( ? 2) normal populations whose means are all known or unknown and whose variances are unknown. Let σ²_[1] ? ??? ? σ_[k]² denote the ordered variances. Our goal is to select a non empty subset of the k populations whose size is at most m(1 ? m ? k ? 1) so that the population associated with the smallest variance (called the best population) is included in the selected subset with a guaranteed minimum probability P* whenever σ²_[2]/σ_[1]² ? δ* > 1, where P* and δ* are specified in advance of the experiment. Based on samples of size n from each of the populations, we propose and investigate a procedure called R_BCP. We also derive some asymptotic results for our procedure. Some comparisons with an earlier available procedure are presented in terms of the average subset sizes for selected slippage configurations based on simulations. The results are illustrated by an example.