央行沟通对于货币政策实际干预的预测能力研究

信息沟通有助于公众理解和预测货币政策的实际干预,进而提高货币政策有效性。研究中国人民银行的信息沟通对实际政策干预的预测能力需要解决沟通文本的测度问题,同时考虑实际政策干预多工具并用的复杂性。基于此,本文通过文本分析方法提取《货币政策执行报告》的信息,进而考察央行沟通对于货币政策实际干预的预测能力。研究表明,整体而言,市场对中国人民银行“听其言”有助于“观其行”。具体来看,央行沟通对于直接可控的基准利率和存款准备金率具有持续的预测能力,但对于市场利率的预测能力较差,对于M2增长率的预测甚至存在方向不一致的情况。     

适于DSP的模拟信号调制方式自动识别方法研究

提出一种适用于DSP的基于Bessel插值结构的正交数字下变频方案，可实现已调信号调制方式的自动识别。该方案能够实现提取信号的正交分量和同相分量，并且能够提取出较高精度的信号的基本参数，由此得到的特征参数可以准确地识别出信号的调制模式。最后，通过计算机和DSP仿真，证明了它的可行性。     

THE IMPORTANCE OF LEGAL FORM OF ORGANIZATION ON SMALL CORPORATION EXTERNAL FINANCING

This article quantitatively evaluates the impact of legal form of organization (LFO) choices, C versus S corporation, on small business external financing. A treatment effect model is formulated and estimated to examine the relationship between corporate types and chances of obtaining external financing. The estimation takes into account self‐selection bias associated with LFO choices. This article finds that LFO choices mainly affect small corporations' access to external equity capital, but have no significant impact on loan financing. Specifically, when a small corporation selects the C corporate legal form, the probability of obtaining new external equity is eight times higher compared to when it selects the S corporate legal form. Furthermore, the results suggest that better access to external equity investments, loosening business capital constraints, leads to better growth prospects for small C corporations. These empirical results have important macro‐economic implications on corporate financial and fiscal policies. (JEL G32, G38)     

Reweighted estimators for additive hazard model with censoring indicators missing at random

Survival data with missing censoring indicators are frequently encountered in biomedical studies. In this paper, we consider statistical inference for this type of data under the additive hazard model. Reweighting methods based on simple and augmented inverse probability are proposed. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are established. Furthermore, we provide a numerical technique for checking adequacy of the fitted model with missing censoring indicators. Our simulation results show that the proposed estimators outperform the simple and augmented inverse probability weighted estimators without reweighting. The proposed methods are illustrated by analyzing a dataset from a breast cancer study.     

Robust Bayesian nonlinear mixed‐effects modeling of time to positivity in tuberculosis trials

Early phase 2 tuberculosis (TB) trials are conducted to characterize the early bactericidal activity (EBA) of anti‐TB drugs. The EBA of anti‐TB drugs has conventionally been calculated as the rate of decline in colony forming unit (CFU) count during the first 14 days of treatment. The measurement of CFU count, however, is expensive and prone to contamination. Alternatively to CFU count, time to positivity (TTP), which is a potential biomarker for long‐term efficacy of anti‐TB drugs, can be used to characterize EBA. The current Bayesian nonlinear mixed‐effects (NLME) regression model for TTP data, however, lacks robustness to gross outliers that often are present in the data. The conventional way of handling such outliers involves their identification by visual inspection and subsequent exclusion from the analysis. However, this process can be questioned because of its subjective nature. For this reason, we fitted robust versions of the Bayesian nonlinear mixed‐effects regression model to a wide range of TTP datasets. The performance of the explored models was assessed through model comparison statistics and a simulation study. We conclude that fitting a robust model to TTP data obviates the need for explicit identification and subsequent “deletion” of outliers but ensures that gross outliers exert no undue influence on model fits. We recommend that the current practice of fitting conventional normal theory models be abandoned in favor of fitting robust models to TTP data.     

Evidence-based practice in Chinese social work: overcoming language and developmental barriers

This scoping review followed Cochrane guidelines to comprehensively assess the use and understanding of Evidence-Based Practice (EBP) in Chinese social science literature. We conducted a research across three electronic databases and three major social science journals for the studies published between 2004 and 2016. Chinese social work literature demonstrates a precise understanding of EBP defined as a process, but it lacks comprehensive discussions about EBP that extend beyond basic principles and process definitions. We identified language barriers and developmental issues for social work in China that contribute to these incomplete discussions. We examined the importance of broadening and enriching the discussions around EBP, especially for Chinese educators, researchers, and clinicians involved with empirically supported treatments. We also consider the implications of our findings for the development of social work in China.     

上海长期护理供需匹配机制探索

长期护理供需不匹配,包括因评估结论失准、服务机构匹配偏差、服务质量不高导致申请人合理需求无法满足,以及因难以纠正申请人过度需求引发的供给短缺.建立和完善长期护理保险制度,必须从现实与可能的角度,建立需求识别、流程管理、服务质量管理的长期护理供需匹配机制.