“文人”概念起源考释

"文人"是一个发展性概念,其远源是"士"。在西周到春秋初叶,"文人"指有文德的人。春秋战国之际,"文士"崛起。到东汉时,"文人"等同"文士",指那些有较高文化水平和代表社会道义的知识阶层的成员。     

An Integrated Risk Assessment Model of Township‐Scaled Land Subsidence Based on an Evidential Reasoning Algorithm and Fuzzy Set Theory

Land subsidence risk assessment (LSRA) is a multi‐attribute decision analysis (MADA) problem and is often characterized by both quantitative and qualitative attributes with various types of uncertainty. Therefore, the problem needs to be modeled and analyzed using methods that can handle uncertainty. In this article, we propose an integrated assessment model based on the evidential reasoning (ER) algorithm and fuzzy set theory. The assessment model is structured as a hierarchical framework that regards land subsidence risk as a composite of two key factors: hazard and vulnerability. These factors can be described by a set of basic indicators defined by assessment grades with attributes for transforming both numerical data and subjective judgments into a belief structure. The factor‐level attributes of hazard and vulnerability are combined using the ER algorithm, which is based on the information from a belief structure calculated by the Dempster‐Shafer (D‐S) theory, and a distributed fuzzy belief structure calculated by fuzzy set theory. The results from the combined algorithms yield distributed assessment grade matrices. The application of the model to the Xixi‐Chengnan area, China, illustrates its usefulness and validity for LSRA. The model utilizes a combination of all types of evidence, including all assessment information—quantitative or qualitative, complete or incomplete, and precise or imprecise—to provide assessment grades that define risk assessment on the basis of hazard and vulnerability. The results will enable risk managers to apply different risk prevention measures and mitigation planning based on the calculated risk states.     

An improved two-stage procedure to compare hazard curves

Qiu and Sheng has proposed a powerful and robust two-stage procedure to compare two hazard rate functions. In this paper we improve their method by using the Fisher test to combine the asymptotically independent p-values obtained from the two stages of their procedure. In addition, we extend the procedure to situations with multiple hazard rate functions. Our comprehensive simulation study shows that the proposed method has a good performance in terms of controlling the type I error rate and of detecting power. Three real data applications are considered for illustrating the use of the new method.     

Selecting the normal population with the smallest variance: A restricted subset selection rule

Consider k( ? 2) normal populations whose means are all known or unknown and whose variances are unknown. Let σ²_[1] ? ??? ? σ_[k]² denote the ordered variances. Our goal is to select a non empty subset of the k populations whose size is at most m(1 ? m ? k ? 1) so that the population associated with the smallest variance (called the best population) is included in the selected subset with a guaranteed minimum probability P* whenever σ²_[2]/σ_[1]² ? δ* > 1, where P* and δ* are specified in advance of the experiment. Based on samples of size n from each of the populations, we propose and investigate a procedure called R_BCP. We also derive some asymptotic results for our procedure. Some comparisons with an earlier available procedure are presented in terms of the average subset sizes for selected slippage configurations based on simulations. The results are illustrated by an example.     

金融资产的动态非线性相关:一个新的模型

基于Kendall’sτ秩相关系数的优越性和定义,本文提出了新的具有明确经济意义的动态条件相关copula模型,将常用的Gaussian、Clayton和Gumbel函数统一根据该演化方程实现动态化,构造出三种Kendall’sτ动态条件相关copula模型,可用于刻画不同的相关模式。这些模型不仅参数少、容易估计,避免了现有动态条件相关copula模型构建方法各异导致的在实证中不利于比较的缺点,而且能够进行多步向前预测,有效地减少了进行样本外预测时的计算量,从而为刻画时变、非线性、非对称性和尾部相关等复杂的动态相关模式提供了新方法。     

固定效应部分线性变系数面板模型的快速有效估计

本文将最小二乘支持向量机(LSSVM) 和二次推断函数法(QIF) 相结合，为个体内具有相关结构的固定效应部分线性变系数面板模型提供了一种新的快速估计方法；在一定的正则条件下，论证了参数估计量的渐近正态性和非参数估计量的收敛速度；采用Monte Carlo模拟考察了估计方法在有限样本下的表现并将估计技术应用于现实数据分析。该方法不仅保证了估计的有效性和统计推断力，而且程序运行速度得到较大幅度提升。     

从神话学立场论夏朝的存在

神话就是古人心目中的历史.远古的神话和后世的历史叙事在社会功能上是一致的,都是用神圣叙事来证明当时的社会生活与制度.所以,我们不能根据神话情节的虚构性来否定神话所要证明的社会现实的真实性.神圣叙事涵盖神话和历史两个概念,通过分析有关鲧、禹和启的神圣叙事的社会功能,或可证明作为第一个世袭王朝的夏朝是真实的存在.史学界和考古学界对于夏代是否属于信史无法取得一致意见,争议的核心在于双方使用的方法论和证据学原则的不同.     

深圳城市治理的三种模式研究

城市社区治理体系改革是基层党和政府与社区各类组织之间权力职能关系的一种多方位调整,居民自治、党建引领与企业参与分别代表着目前实践中的三种不同改革思路,其内在逻辑折射出改革者对于解决社区现实问题的区别性研判,以及对社区治理体制改革内容的差异化理解,并将深刻影响城市治理的发展向度.在住房商品化改革深入推进,社区形态经历复杂转型,社区利益主体日渐多元,居民的民主法治观念逐渐觉醒,基层群众自治需求增长的现实背景下,以深圳在居民自治、社区党建、社区服务等方面探索出的"盐田模式""南山模式""桃源居模式"为例,阐释三者之间的关系并分析其中的优缺点,对于研判城市社区治理体系改革的趋向和特征有启迪作用.     

大芦家地区东二1亚段砂体微相纵横向分布研究

大芦家地区渐新统东二1亚段主要由三角洲前缘亚相组成,发育的微相类型包括河口坝、水下分流河道、水下决口扇及天然堤、远砂坝、席状砂、分流间湾等,它们在纵横向上表现出多次复合,多次叠加的特征,且各微相的界限和单砂层的界限并不一致;所有这些微相在垂向上的沉积序列可分为均一型、垂向减小型和垂向增大型三类;此外,该区三角洲体系沉积物源主要由河流从西北方向搬运而来,属高建设性的河控型三角洲,其平面呈朵状向东南方或南方延伸,其微相模式的特点是水下分流河道和河口坝沉积位于中心,其他微相分布在它们的外缘。     

江苏省仪征市真州东园位置考证

东园是仪征历史上最著名的一座园林,也是中国宋代最著名的园林之一,在中国古代园林史上占有重要地位.梅尧臣、苏轼、王安石等人都曾经在园中游览,留下了优美的诗篇,欧阳修为它写了著名的散文《真州东园记》.虽然这座园林在清代已经消失,但是今天许多人士希望能够确定东园遗址的位置,重建这座园林,为仪征保留一份珍贵的历史文化遗产.由于年代久远,仪征当地的地形地貌发生了巨大变化,东园遗迹几乎完全消失;同时,文献中东园位置的记载也是十分简略的,因此,确定它的位置非常困难.在前人研究的基础上,通过查阅文献并结合实地调查,确定了东园遗址的准确位置和边界.东园遗址的位置在以今天文墩遗址为中心,真州城东翼城遗址的南侧,真州城东门遗址的东侧,清代儒学遗址的北侧,小教场遗址的西侧.