自媒体时代历史虚无主义思潮的传播及其反制

历史虚无主义在意识形态层面否定马克思主义的指导地位与唯物史观,歪曲丑化了中国共产党的领导。历史虚无主义思潮借助自媒体平台呈现出的碎片化、隐匿化与庸俗化倾向,在当下自媒体平台肆意传播,在社会上造成了极其恶劣的影响。在此背景下,必须深入分析历史虚无主义思潮在自媒体平台的传播方式及其规律,有针对性地提出相应的反制策略,在重建马克思主义唯物史观的同时,营造健康的网络道德教育环境。     

残疾人心理健康服务需求的调查分析

本研究使用自编残疾人心理健康服务需求问卷,对864个残疾人进行施测,旨在调查和了解我国残疾人心理健康服务需求的现状,为残疾人心理健康服务体系的建设提供依据。结果表明：超过1／3的残疾人对自身的心理健康水平评价较低,68．4％的残疾人认为心理健康很重要,90．2％的残疾人认为接受心理健康服务很重要,说明残疾人对心理健康服务的认识和接纳程度较高,需求意愿强烈。在具体的服务目标方面,24．5％的残疾人期望通过心理健康服务能够使家庭生活幸福,21．2％的人希望获得良好的社会适应,19．7％的人希望达到人际和谐。服务内容方面,44．7％的人选择了对家庭婚姻问题的心理咨询,39．7％的人选择了提供心理保健知识。在心理服务形式方面,39．9％的人选择求助兼职或专业的心理咨询人员,28．8％的受访者选择了从朋友家人那里寻求支持,而剩余31．4％的受访者选择了什么也不做或自己解决。在具体的形式方面,41．4％的人选择了求助心理热线,38．2％的人选择了专业心理咨询。在选择机构方面,以社区服务站和社区的主页心理服务机构为主,分别占25．5％和25．3％。调查还表明现实生活中残疾人心理健康服务的开展力度较弱。     

中国法治政府的演化博弈模型构建

演化博弈论在中国法治政府研究中具有很好的适用性,可以据此构建“复制动态”的中国法治政府的演化博弈模型,证明“内生演化”的法治能够从根本上解决政府“权力悖论”。中国法治政府建设需要围绕约束规范公权力的主题,确立互动平衡精神和采取渐进主义策略,以改进转型中国的法治秩序。     

有机硼交联HPG压裂液超低温破胶剂室内研究

对埋藏浅,油层温度低的油藏进行压裂改造,需解决压裂液低温破胶水化的问题。采用活化剂来提高过硫酸铵(APS),酶,胶囊破胶剂的低温破胶能力。通过对有机硼交联的羟丙基瓜胶(HPG)压裂液低温下破胶后粘度损失率的测定,筛选出用于50℃下的APS/活化剂破胶系统及胶囊破胶剂。结果表明:在APS/活化剂破胶系统的作用下,采用有机硼作交联剂的HPG压裂液在较低温度条件下能彻底破胶水化。     

Mixed-effects Models with Skewed Distributions for Time-varying Decay Rate in HIV Dynamics

After initiation of treatment, HIV viral load has multiphasic changes, which indicates that the viral decay rate is a time-varying process. Mixed-effects models with different time-varying decay rate functions have been proposed in literature. However, there are two unresolved critical issues: (i) it is not clear which model is more appropriate for practical use, and (ii) the model random errors are commonly assumed to follow a normal distribution, which may be unrealistic and can obscure important features of within- and among-subject variations. Because asymmetry of HIV viral load data is still noticeable even after transformation, it is important to use a more general distribution family that enables the unrealistic normal assumption to be relaxed. We developed skew-elliptical (SE) Bayesian mixed-effects models by considering the model random errors to have an SE distribution. We compared the performance among five SE models that have different time-varying decay rate functions. For each model, we also contrasted the performance under different model random error assumptions such as normal, Student-t, skew-normal, or skew-t distribution. Two AIDS clinical trial datasets were used to illustrate the proposed models and methods. The results indicate that the model with a time-varying viral decay rate that has two exponential components is preferred. Among the four distribution assumptions, the skew-t and skew-normal models provided better fitting to the data than normal or Student-t model, suggesting that it is important to assume a model with a skewed distribution in order to achieve reasonable results when the data exhibit skewness.     

Power analysis for clustered non-continuous responses in multicenter trials

Power analysis for multi-center randomized control trials is quite difficult to perform for non-continuous responses when site differences are modeled by random effects using the generalized linear mixed-effects model (GLMM). First, it is not possible to construct power functions analytically, because of the extreme complexity of the sampling distribution of parameter estimates. Second, Monte Carlo (MC) simulation, a popular option for estimating power for complex models, does not work within the current context because of a lack of methods and software packages that would provide reliable estimates for fitting such GLMMs. For example, even statistical packages from software giants like SAS do not provide reliable estimates at the time of writing. Another major limitation of MC simulation is the lengthy running time, especially for complex models such as GLMM, especially when estimating power for multiple scenarios of interest. We present a new approach to address such limitations. The proposed approach defines a marginal model to approximate the GLMM and estimates power without relying on MC simulation. The approach is illustrated with both real and simulated data, with the simulation study demonstrating good performance of the method.     

Stochastic comparisons on sample extremes of dependent and heterogenous observations

Stochastic comparison on order statistics from heterogeneous-dependent observations has been paid lots of attention recently. This paper devotes to investigating the ordering properties of order statistics from dependent observations. We derive the usual stochastic order for sample minimums and the second smallest order statistic, the dispersive order and the star order for minimums of samples having proportional hazards and Archimedean survival copulas. Similar ordering results are also obtained for maximums and the second largest order statistic of samples having proportional reversed hazards and Archimedean copulas. Several examples illustrating the main results are presented as well.     

Functional Partial Linear Single‐index Model

This paper deals with the problem of predicting the real‐valued response variable using explanatory variables containing both multivariate random variable and random curve. The proposed functional partial linear single‐index model treats the multivariate random variable as linear part and the random curve as functional single‐index part, respectively. To estimate the non‐parametric link function, the functional single‐index and the parameters in the linear part, a two‐stage estimation procedure is proposed. Compared with existing semi‐parametric methods, the proposed approach requires no initial estimation and iteration. Asymptotical properties are established for both the parameters in the linear part and the functional single‐index. The convergence rate for the non‐parametric link function is also given. In addition, asymptotical normality of the error variance is obtained that facilitates the construction of confidence region and hypothesis testing for the unknown parameter. Numerical experiments including simulation studies and a real‐data analysis are conducted to evaluate the empirical performance of the proposed method.     

概念、社会与规范性——黑格尔的规范性理论之争

罗尔斯等人对康德的道德哲学做出了建构论的解读,从此将建构论带入到规范性研究中。因为不满康德哲学自身的理论困境,以布兰顿、皮平为代表的社会建构论开始了对黑格尔的规范性研究,将之视为对康德哲学的社会化,把以相互承认为基础的社会视为规范的来源,这一解读方式被称之为“标准解读”。在社会建构论的影响下,斯特恩、莱蒂宁等人分别提出了对黑格尔哲学的规范性解读。一时间,对黑格尔规范性的研究产生了众多丰富的理论成果。考察这一时段理论得失,有助于我们推动黑格尔的规范性研究。     

提高效率、维护公平:产权四模式对深化我国集体林权改革的启示

回顾我国集体林权改革的主要进展,介绍产权四模式的主要观点,提出深化集体林权改革的思考和建议。研究发现,林权改革没有统一的格式,产权四模式总结了发展中国家林权改革的一些规律,可以为我国集体林改所借鉴;与其他模式相比,财产权模式对我国集体林改影响最大,明晰产权、提高效率一直是集体林改的目标;农业结构模式明确提出的市场机制可能带来产权不安全的问题需要引起重视;制度模式主张政府发挥产权改革的主导作用、制定法律法规巩固产权的主张对深化林权改革有重要借鉴意义;共有产权模式提出的保留共有森林资源为贫困人口提供"一席之地"的主张,为减贫和乡村振兴提供思路。在结束明晰产权主体改革任务之后,应将工作重点转向制定相关法律法规巩固产权改革成果、维护农户林权利益;在推动林地规模化经营中,要谨慎推进森林资源金融化,防止出现"代价高昂的不平等";充分认识集体林权改革的复杂性、艰巨性和长期性,将林改工作从工程式运作逐渐转向常规监管,加强林权管理。