Functional Partial Linear Single‐index Model

This paper deals with the problem of predicting the real‐valued response variable using explanatory variables containing both multivariate random variable and random curve. The proposed functional partial linear single‐index model treats the multivariate random variable as linear part and the random curve as functional single‐index part, respectively. To estimate the non‐parametric link function, the functional single‐index and the parameters in the linear part, a two‐stage estimation procedure is proposed. Compared with existing semi‐parametric methods, the proposed approach requires no initial estimation and iteration. Asymptotical properties are established for both the parameters in the linear part and the functional single‐index. The convergence rate for the non‐parametric link function is also given. In addition, asymptotical normality of the error variance is obtained that facilitates the construction of confidence region and hypothesis testing for the unknown parameter. Numerical experiments including simulation studies and a real‐data analysis are conducted to evaluate the empirical performance of the proposed method.     

特征AHP在高校教师教学质量评定中的应用

本文针对高校教师教学质量的评定提出了一种特征层次分析法。首先通过分析教学质量的影响因素,建立三层层次分析模型。在其基础上引入特征法,选取特征群并确定特征群中个体的权重,利用反算法根据组合权重及方案层权重,求取准则层评定指标权重,避免了不同质指标间对比的不确定性,摒除了专家直接给出评定指标对比矩阵的主观性,减少了对教师评定过程的不一致性和不完备性。     

Cell Phone Survey Feasibility in The U.S.: Sampling and Calling Cell Numbers Versus Landline Numbers

In 2004, we conducted a nationwide dual frame survey of landlineand cell phone numbers to evaluate the feasibility of includingcell phone numbers in a random digit dial telephone survey.Households with both landline and cell phones were eligiblefor selection in both samples. This article describes our designand data collection methods; compares the results from the twosamples (with an emphasis on operational characteristics); andpresents the outcomes of two experimental manipulations designedto improve the cell phone response rate.     

天津城市地下道路功能定位研究

一、引言 随着城市化和机动化水平的提高,天津的城市交通问题日趋严重.虽然近年天津大力建设地铁及快速路系统,但随着城市扩张及经济增长速度加快,居民出行需求日益增加,地面道路交通状况依然严峻.纵观国内外交通系统较成熟的大都市区,地下道路作为新的道路规划、建设形式已经成为缓解城市交通问题的重要手段.在大规模进行城市建设阶段,做好地下道路空间规划,为地下道路建设控制预留条件,对于天津城市可持续发展有着重要意义.     

Prevalence and characteristics of sexual violence victimization among U.S. adults, 2001-2003

This article provides the most recent U.S. prevalence estimates of forced sex and unwanted sexual activity. Results of a national telephone survey conducted in 2001-2003 indicate that 1 in 59 U.S. adults (2.7 million women and 978,000 men) experienced unwanted sexual activity in the 12 months preceding the survey and that 1 in 15 U.S. adults (11.7 million women and 2.1 million men) have been forced to have sex during their lifetime. There were 60.4% of females and 69.2% of males who were 17 years old or younger at the time the first forced sex occurred. This study provides an update to the National Violence Against Women Survey with more recent national data. Findings suggest that victimization rates have remained consistent since the 1990s. These findings suggest that a continued effort toward primary prevention of sexual violence, particularly rape of children and adolescents, is needed.     

对职业教育课堂教学优化的探讨

职业院校学生实践能力职业能力是立业之本,创业之基,课堂教学优化是推进职业教育培育技能型人才的基础性工作.加深对课堂教学优化的实践认知,确立课堂教学优化的常态观,是职业教育落实"以就业为导向"的教育方针的必走之路.     

Bayesian t-tests for correlations and partial correlations

In this paper, we develop Bayes factor based testing procedures for the presence of a correlation or a partial correlation. The proposed Bayesian tests are obtained by restricting the class of the alternative hypotheses to maximize the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when the Bayes factor is larger than a specified threshold. It turns out that they depend simply on the frequentist t-statistics with the associated critical values and can thus be easily calculated by using a spreadsheet in Excel and in fact by just adding one more step after one has performed the frequentist correlation tests. In addition, they are able to yield an identical decision with the frequentist paradigm, provided that the evidence threshold of the Bayesian tests is determined by the significance level of the frequentist paradigm. We illustrate the performance of the proposed procedures through simulated and real-data examples.     

在自我叙事的表象背后--评《紫禁女》

通过对卢新华新作《紫禁女》的文本细读,在分析其感性层面的自我叙事故事基础之上,进而挖掘其理性层面所蕴涵的历史忧患意识。在肯定其梦幻、日记体、意识流等多种表现手法的同时,也中肯地指出其“载道”有余而“文学”不足的缺憾。