The stratified win statistics (win ratio,win odds,and net benefit)

The win odds and the net benefit are related directly to each other and indirectly, through ties, to the win ratio. These three win statistics test the same null hypothesis of equal win probabilities between two groups. They provide similar p-values and powers, because the Z-values of their statistical tests are approximately equal. Thus, they can complement one another to show the strength of a treatment effect. In this article, we show that the estimated variances of the win statistics are also directly related regardless of ties or indirectly related through ties. Since its introduction in 2018, the stratified win ratio has been applied in designs and analyses of clinical trials, including Phase III and Phase IV studies. This article generalizes the stratified method to the win odds and the net benefit. As a result, the relations of the three win statistics and the approximate equivalence of their statistical tests also hold for the stratified win statistics.     

Error Bands for Impulse Responses

We show how correctly to extend known methods for generating error bands in reduced form VAR's to overidentified models. We argue that the conventional pointwise bands common in the literature should be supplemented with measures of shape uncertainty, and we show how to generate such measures. We focus on bands that characterize the shape of the likelihood. Such bands are not classical confidence regions. We explain that classical confidence regions mix information about parameter location with information about model fit, and hence can be misleading as summaries of the implications of the data for the location of parameters. Because classical confidence regions also present conceptual and computational problems in multivariate time series models, we suggest that likelihood-based bands, rather than approximate confidence bands based on asymptotic theory, be standard in reporting results for this type of model.     

汇率机制改革后人民币汇率的动态变化

 汇改后人民币汇率一直处于一个升值趋势,但是2008年后至今将近一年的时间内却基本保持不变。本文利用2005年7月21-2009年8月13日汇率数据探讨人民币篮子中货币权重的动态变化,来解释汇改以来人民币/美元走势。我们发现：一、在整个估计区间内,美元平均权重达到88%,同时美元权重存在结构性变化;二、利用滚动回归(rolling regression),美元权重可以分为三个阶段：2006年10月-2008年8月,2008年9月-2009年1月和2009年2月－2009年8月,分别处于缓慢上升、快速下降和重新回调的趋势中;第三、引入外汇市场压力(EMP),使用月度数据对篮子货币重新进行了考察,欧元在篮子中权重大幅上升,同时汇率对外汇市场压力反应并不明显。因此人民币仍取决于篮子中最主要的两种货币：美元和欧元的权重转换及二种货币间的价值变化。     

我国工业污染物的影子价格估计

 污染物的影子价格体现了污染物的边际减排成本。本文采用二次型方向性距离函数和 2003-2008年我国284个地级及以上城市工业部门数据,对废水、SO2和烟尘等三种污染物的影子价格进行了估计。结果发现,2003-2008年期间,废水、SO2、烟尘的影子价格或边际减排成本分别为0.0178万元/吨、5.158万元/吨和4.597万元/吨。SO2排污权交易价格相比污染减排成本偏低,影响了排污权交易市场的有效运作。污染物的影子价格在不同城市具有较大差异,这种差异性能够在一定程度上被污染排放规模、监管强度和污染治理的规模经济性等因素所解释。     

略论汉代古文经学的制度构想与文论视野

在古文经学家推崇的各类经传中,《周礼》与《左传》集中表达了合乎礼治原则的理想政教制度的构想, 古文经学的文论叙述也便于其中得以安置,并获得具体规定。《周礼》的意义偏重于对文学的制度性安置,核心在 于"乐"的政教功能;《左传》的意义则偏重于文法的具体规定,其实质即如何在书写中寄寓王道理想。     

SCHOOL RACIAL COMPOSITION AND BIRACIAL ADOLESCENTS' SCHOOL ATTACHMENT

Despite extensive research on multiracial youth in recent years, to date, no empirical studies have analyzed how racial context may affect biracial adolescents' sense of belonging in a social institution beyond families. In this study, we examine how the racial makeup of the student body affects self-identified biracial adolescents' school attachment. Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, we find that the proportions of white or black students in school significantly affect the school attachment of Hispanic/black, Asian/black, and American Indian/black biracial adolescents, but school racial composition in general has little influence on biracial adolescents with a partial-white identification (i.e., black/white, Hispanic/white, Asian/white, and American Indian/white). Our analyses also show that on average, students of most biracial groups display lower school attachment than their corresponding monoracial groups, but the differences from the monoracial groups with the lower school attachment are generally small. We discuss the implications of our findings for biracial adolescents' perceived racial boundaries and contemporary American race relations.     

基准刑若干问题研究

基准刑的确立与运用是量刑公正实现的必然要求.与量刑基准不同的是,基准刑是以具体个罪为对象,依据量刑基准确立的计算程式计算出来的刑种或刑度.因基准刑具有调节、限制和补充功能,所以能够为法官自由裁量构筑一道防线,以实现量刑公正.而先确立量刑基准,再确立基准刑,之后再确定拟定宣告刑,并以法官自由裁量权修正拟定的宣告刑,则是实践基准刑的题中应有之义.     

当代中国语境的现代性反思与建构

当充满争议的现代性概念与复杂的中国问题相遭遇,当代中国语境的现代性认识产生分歧也就在所难免。厘清这些分歧不仅是廓清历史主义和后现代主义思潮纷争的前提,更关系着中国未来现代化的健康发展和走向。要对当代中国语境的现代性及其现代性问题作出合理诊断,需要以普世文明的胸怀,重新审视中国现代性问题;建立开放、辩证和多维的现代性认知态度;创新传统,为中国现代性之路提供文化支撑。     

市场网络化、外部性与传统关系营销理论的扩展

在当前各社会科学中,网络分析作为一种新的研究视角和方法,已经极大地改变着理论研究的发展边界,激发出许多新兴课题和研究热点.通过对演化经济学、制度社会学、组织生态学以及相关营销学文献梳理,将网络分析的视角引入营销理论的批判和重新构建,将市场视为由彼此关联的购买者组成的网络结构,可以极大地拓展传统关系营销理论.市场网络化的概念突出强调了购买者决策所具有的外部性效应与合法性效应,即彼此关联的购买者的态度、意向和行为会影响网络中其他购买者的反应.     

后危机时代国际投行的发展动向、发展趋势及其启示

自2008年发生全球性金融危机以来,国际投行发生了哪些重大变化,呈现怎样的发展趋势,由此给我国证券行业带来了哪些有益的借鉴和启示,这些都值得我们思考。本文试图对这些问题进行探讨,以期加强并进一步深化我国证券业的金融创新,加快建立证券业的自主创新体系,同时加强金融衍生品的全面审慎监管与风险控制,有效防范和化解金融风险,从而促进证券业的持续、稳定、健康发展。