“刘易斯转折点”假象及其对“人口红利”释放的冲击

本文分析了当前普遍范围的用工荒是由于实际工资低于保留工资引起的农民工用脚投票结果。在此利用新家庭经济学单一模型理论分析这种经济行为是与简单单一个体预期效用最大化的经济行为相区别;农户以家庭为单位在金融资本及现代教育人力资本短缺的情况下通过家庭成员劳动力资本对外投资实施风险规避,在家庭内部实现收入分享,风险共担。这种经济行为带来的在工业制造和农业无法有效释放人口红利的结果,最终导致用工荒和环境负外部性以资本替代劳动的现代农业生产。     

Responsive Survey Design,Demographic Data Collection,and Models of Demographic Behavior

To address declining response rates and rising data-collection costs, survey methodologists have devised new techniques for using process data (“paradata”) to address nonresponse by altering the survey design dynamically during data collection. We investigate the substantive consequences of responsive survey design—tools that use paradata to improve the representative qualities of surveys and control costs. By improving representation of reluctant respondents, responsive design can change our understanding of the topic being studied. Using the National Survey of Family Growth Cycle 6, we illustrate how responsive survey design can shape both demographic estimates and models of demographic behaviors based on survey data. By juxtaposing measures from regular and responsive data collection phases, we document how special efforts to interview reluctant respondents may affect demographic estimates. Results demonstrate the potential of responsive survey design to change the quality of demographic research based on survey data.     

Learning about a child's gay or lesbian sexual orientation: parental concerns about societal rejection, loss of loved ones, and child well being

This article reports the results of a study examining heterosexual parents' concerns upon learning about their children's gay or lesbian sexual orientations. Three areas of parental concern are noted: (a) those about what society thinks of them because they have gay or lesbian children, (b) those about being rejected by loved ones, and (c) concerns for their child's physical and psychological well being. Results indicate that parents' concerns about having gay or lesbian children differ depending on the gender of the parent, gender of the child, awareness of stigma, and perceptions of parents' own gender role attributes.     

在应对“用工荒”中推动企业转型升级

总结用工荒的基本特征,分析其产生的原因,并提出企业和政府联手应对用工荒的对策。认为企业要通过机械化和自动化降低用工依赖、提高效率和向低成本地区转移来化解用工高成本,变革企业管理减少员工流失。政府要通过加快区域产业布局调整、加强农民工职业技能培训、加快农业现代化建设提高用工供给、推动农民工与市民在住房保障等方面平权、优化农民工就业服务和劳动力市场建设、构建少取多予的财税扶持等措施,帮助企业应对用工荒,实现转型升级。     

Shared and unique characteristics of school,cyber and family victimization among school-aged children in Hong Kong

Victimizations from online and offline violence, such as sibling violence, school violence and witness of family violence, both have negative associations with victims' mental health and may share similar individual and family characteristics. This study aims to explore the common and differentiated characteristics in the prediction of school, cyber and family victimization and whether there are unique associations within these victimization types. We employed a two-stage stratified sampling method to collect a representative sample of 5567 children aged 3–17 from a cross-sectional, school-based survey in Hong Kong. Results showed that all types of child victimization, including sibling, school and cyberbullying, as well as the witness of violence at home, were positively correlated with each other. Children's age was positively related to the occurrence and cooccurrence of all types of child victimization. Frequent family residential mobility and parents' higher education level were positively related to all types of children's victimization. The scores of all aspects of children's paediatric quality of life were found negatively related to children's school victimization. This study provides insight into the unique and shared elements of children's online and offline victimization. Knowledge of the distinguished familial gradients of child victimization at home and beyond could benefit the development of child victimization prevention.     

Adapting private family time in child protective services decision-making processes

The Family Group Conference (FGC) is grounded in a rights-based framework, whereby children and their families have the right and responsibility to be primary decision-makers when child protection issues arise, and the statutory agency has the responsibility to convene the entitled members of the family network to lead the decision-making. A distinct core component of FGC—private family time (PFT)—allows families to discuss the information and formulate their responses and plans privately during conferencing. This paper describes how a large child welfare agency in the United States adapted PFT in two ways: (1) including a parent advocate (PA) and (2) abbreviating the amount of time allowed for this discussion. Given the lack of empirical research on the PFT component, this qualitative exploratory study sought to understand the functions and perceived impacts of PA-supported PFT during initial child protective services (CPS) conferences at which decisions of child removal or placement were being contemplated. PFT served multiple beneficial functions and impacted families in several positive ways: families gained greater awareness of safety concerns, felt empowered and confident in the preferred safety and service plan, became increasingly engaged and involved in the case decision-making process and ultimately felt less apprehensive.     

Substance use and other factors associated with child welfare case duration: Looking beyond out of home care

Little is known about factors associated with child welfare case duration. Understanding factors associated with case duration may help stakeholders make more informed decisions about funding and service allocation and improve compliance with federal law. This study had two research questions: (1) What factors are associated with child welfare case duration? And (2) Do factors differ depending on whether children were placed exclusively with parents or with others (e.g. relatives and foster care) during the case? The study sample consisted of families (N = 874) with co-occurring child maltreatment and substance use in one midwestern state in the United States between 2007 and 2016. Linear regression models were used to identify correlates of case duration while controlling for child placement status. Overall, having a child under 1 year of age, benzodiazepine use, methamphetamine use and injection drug use were all associated with longer case duration, whereas marijuana use with no other substance use was associated with shorter case duration. Additionally, factors associated with case duration differed based on child placement status during the case. These findings suggest important heterogeneity in families involved with child welfare services and may allow for proactive mitigation of cases at greater risk.     

Couples relationship standards and satisfaction in Pakistani couples

Relationship standards are beliefs about what is important in a satisfying couple relationship, which vary considerably between cultures, and might mean that what couples seek from couple therapy differs across cultures. We assessed the standards of n = 49 Pakistani couples and whether those standards predicted couple satisfaction. To provide referents for the Pakistani standards, we also assessed selfreported relationship standards in n = 33 Western couples and n = 30 Chinese couples. Pakistani couples endorsed couple bond standards (e.g., expressions of love) as similarly important, and family responsibility (e.g., extended family relations) standards as more important, than Western or Chinese couples. In Pakistani couples, Couple Bond predicted couples' relationship satisfaction, but family responsibility and Religion predicted only wives' satisfaction. Modest sample sizes necessitate caution in interpreting results but suggest existing couple therapies might need modification to address the distinctive relationship standards of Pakistani couples.     

中国农村地区的家庭禀赋与外出务工劳动力回流

中国农村地区家庭禀赋对个人的行为决策有着重要的影响,需要学术界予以更多的关注。为了考察外生性的家庭禀赋对劳动力就业流动的影响,文章通过构建新生代外出务工劳动力和户主子女的回流决策两个计量模型来进行经验论证。分析结果表明,农村劳动力的迁移选择是综合考虑家庭禀赋状况的理性决策,尤其是对于年轻一代的外出劳动力。家庭经济资本的增加会阻碍家庭外出务工成员的回流。外出劳动力回流的概率起初随着家庭人力资本和家庭自然资本的增长而上升,达到一定程度后开始下降。家庭成员只有拥有较为丰富的人力资本,外出务工劳动力才能对家庭社会资本加以充分利用。另外,分析显示年轻一代劳动力和第一代劳动力对家庭社会资本和自然资本的利用是有差异的。     

A Comparative Analysis of the Fertility of the Urban and Rural in China Since 2000

The different in the fertility of the rural and urban and future changing trend are very important questions to understand China’s population problem. This paper calculates the fertility of the urban and the rural since 2000 based on the statistical data and compares the fertility rate in the urban and the rural population since 2000. The finding shows that the TFR in the rural is less than 1.8 while the TFR in the urban is less than 1.3 and the difference is narrowing year by year. The fertility difference is mainly caused by the second child, generally speaking the second child fertility tend to increasing slightly while the first child fertility shows dramatic fluctuations because of the Chinese folk culture, the fertility fluctuation in the rural is much dramatic than that in the urban. The mean age at childbearing (MAC) has been delaying in both the rural and the urban areas in the decade.