Applying discrete choice models to predict Academy Award winners

Summary.  Every year since 1928, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has recognized outstanding achievement in film with their prestigious Academy Award, or Oscar. Before the winners in various categories are announced, there is intense media and public interest in predicting who will come away from the awards ceremony with an Oscar statuette. There are no end of theories about which nominees are most likely to win, yet despite this there continue to be major surprises when the winners are announced. The paper frames the question of predicting the four major awards—picture, director, actor in a leading role and actress in a leading role—as a discrete choice problem. It is then possible to predict the winners in these four categories with a reasonable degree of success. The analysis also reveals which past results might be considered truly surprising—nominees with low estimated probability of winning who have overcome nominees who were strongly favoured to win.     

A survey and evaluation of methods for determination of combinatorial equivalence of factorial designs

Equivalent factorial designs have identical statistical properties for estimation of factorial contrasts and for model fitting. Non-equivalent designs, however, may have the same statistical properties under one particular model but different properties under a different model. In this paper, we describe known methods for the determination of equivalence or non-equivalence of two-level factorial designs, whether they be regular factorial designs, non-regular orthogonal arrays, or have no particular structure. In addition, we evaluate a number of potential fast screening methods for detecting non-equivalence of designs. Although the paper concentrates mainly on symmetric designs with factors at two levels, we also evaluate methods of determining combinatorial equivalence and non-equivalence of three-level designs and indicate extensions to larger numbers of levels and to asymmetric designs.     

THE RETURN OF THE FIFTIES?

Thirty-one items on six identical surveys of University of Michigan undergraduate men between 1952 to 1989 help assess if there has been a "return of the fifties." Several elements of the fifties have returned—privatism, concern about loyalty and subversion, and conservatism in some personal morals. Other elements have not—the 1952 levels of other-direction, traditional religious commitment, and trust in human nature. The 1980s had a unique combination of political conservatism and personal individualism.     

Statistical Explanation in Cross-cultural Research: a Comparison of the Utility of Linear and Curvilinear Correlation

Data from 483 societies included in the Ethnographic Atlas were used to compare the relative utility of linear ( r ) and curvilinear (Eta) correlation models in cross-cultural research. The societies included in the sample were selected in accordance with the procedures recommended by Murdock. The variables included in the study were selected so as to represent four important areas of evolutionary theory: energy supply (agricultural levels), differentiation (class stratification and the division of labor used in metal working, weaving, and pottery making), societal scale (mean size of local communities and settlement pattern), and integrative mode (central states). In addition to supporting the hypothesis that energy supply, differentiation, societal scale, and integrative mode are interrelated, the results indicate that the linear correlation model, r , frequently results in underestimations of the true strength of relationship between variables. It is suggested that comparativists should regularly test for curvilinear relationships in order to avoid possible errors in estimation.     

OWNERSHIP AND THE REGULATION OF WILDLIFE

The use of wildlife resources is governed by a combination of private contracts and public regulations. Most often, private landowners control access rights, and government agencies regulate hunting and other uses. This paper shows that these institutions depend on wildlife values and the ability of private landowners to control access to species that inhabit their land. Logit regressions and literary sources are used to test implications about private hunting rights and state regulations. The data support the view that private, legal, and political forces have led to institutions that vary in ways consistent with wealth maximization.