Bayesian inference for comparing two Poisson rates using data subject to underreporting and validation data

We derive a new Bayesian credible interval estimator for comparing two Poisson rates when counts are underreported and an additional validation data set is available. We provide a closed-form posterior density for the difference between the two rates that yields insightful information on which prior parameters influence the posterior the most. We also apply the new interval estimator to a real-data example, investigate the performance of the credible interval, and examine the impact of informative priors on the rate difference posterior via Monte Carlo simulations.     

Forest bird communities across a gradient of urban development

This study examined native bird communities in forest patches across a gradient of urbanization. We used field data and multivariate statistical techniques to examine the effects of landscape context, roads, traffic noise, and vegetation characteristics on bird community composition in the North Carolina Piedmont (U.S.A.). Landscape-level variables, particularly those related to urbanization, were most important in structuring forest bird communities. Specifically, we found that road density and amount of urban land cover were the best predictors of species composition. We found that urban and rural bird communities were quite distinct from each other. Rural communities had more long-distance migrants and forest interior species but species richness did not differ between the communities. Our results suggest some specific guidelines to target bird species of interest both inside and outside of urban areas. For example, if increasing numbers of migratory species is of primary concern, then conservation areas should be located outside of urban boundaries or in areas with low road density. However, if maximizing species richness is the focus, location of the conservation area may not be as important if the conservation area is surrounded by at least 50 m of forest habitat in all directions.     

Information Criteria for the Paired-Comparisons Problem

We contrast comparisons of several treatments to control in a single experiment versus separate experiments in terms of Type I error rate and power. It is shown that if no Dunnett correction is applied in the single experiment case with relatively few treatments, the distribution of the number of Type I errors is not that different from what it would be in separate experiments with the same number of subjects in each treatment. The difference becomes more pronounced with a larger number of treatments. Extreme outcomes (either very few or very many rejections) are more likely when comparisons are made in a single experiment. When the total number of subjects is the same in a single versus separate experiments, power is generally higher in a single experiment even if a Dunnett adjustment is made.     

Punctuated and Continuous Change: The UK Water Industry

Punctuated change is usually defined as a discontinuity in organizational development and is traditionally associated with environmental turbulence; it is also associated with step changes in the performance of an organization. Starting from Gersick (1991), we discuss the foundations of the punctuatedà incremental change paradox, and lay out hypotheses regarding the moments when such change is adopted and its economic effect. We explore these ideas through a study of the UK water industry: a contrived macro experiment. Following privatization, the ten major companies all faced similar pressures to adjust, but adopted widely differing responses. We find that the response to privatization was not always punctuated change, and that punctuated change processes were not necessarily superior to continuous processes. We contrast our findings with Romanelli and Tushman (1994), exploring the reasons why our results are so dissimilar.     

The NODS–CLiP: A Rapid Screen for Adult Pathological and Problem Gambling

Objectives  

To describe and evaluate tests of the performance of the NODS–CLiP, an efficient standardized diagnostic interview instrument for adult pathological and problem gambling.     

Effects of urbanization on macroinvertebrates in tributaries of the St. Johns River, Florida, USA

The effects of urbanization on hydrology, water quality and macroinvertebrates were examined in 7 headwater tributaries of the St. Johns River in the Atlantic Coastal Plain of northeast Florida. All streams had sandy substrata and drained small catchments (24?C231?ha) that ranged from 0 to 51% total impervious area (TIA). Streams unaffected by urbanization had intermittent stream flow and completely dry channels for several weeks in autumn and spring. Urbanized streams always possessed channel water, but 2 streams ceased flowing and became stagnant in autumn and spring. Principle components analysis of chemical and physical measures (i.e. conductivity, nutrients, pH, metals, and stream flow) produced one axis (PCA1) that explained 54% of the total variation among the streams. The variables that loaded negatively on this axis were associated with low flows, while the variables that loaded positively were associated with urban land-use. PCA1 was also positively associated with %TIA. Macroinvertebrate richness ranged from 27 to 45 taxa and was positively associated with %TIA. Macroinvertebrate biomass ranged from 3 to 45?g AFDM/m² and showed a significant, exponential relationship with PCA1 (r ²?=?0.93) with greatest biomass occurring at intermediate %TIA. Invertebrate community structure in the urbanized streams appeared to be mainly influenced by hydrologic factors (perennial vs. intermittent flow regimes). The effects of urbanization on both hydrological and biological variables among the study streams were apparent, but also influenced by site-specific conditions.     

Optimal and Heuristic Models for Lot Splitting in a Flow Shop

This paper investigates optimal lot-splitting policies in a multiprocess flow shop environment with the objective of minimizing either mean flow time or makespan. Using a quadratic programming approach to the mean flow time problem, we determine the optimal way of splitting a job into smaller sublots under various setup times to run time ratios, number of machines in the flow shop, and number of allowed sublots. Our results come from a deterministic flow shop environment, but also provide insights into the repetitive lots scheme using equal lot splits for job shop scheduling in a stochastic environment. We indicate those conditions in which managers should implement the repetitive lots scheme and where other lot-splitting schemes should work better.     

Beyond migration? Alternative articulations of transnational religious networks

A growing body of scholarship on transnational religion is grounded within the analytical framework of the religion–migration relationship and has highlighted migrant individuals and groups as main players in forging religious networking. This ignores a wide range of alternative drivers that are forceful in the (re)making of transnational religious networks. In this introduction of the special issue, we therefore open a collection of nine articles which contribute to alternative articulations of transnational religious networks. In particular, our contributors introduce three alternative drivers – ideas, institutions and digital technologies – in (re)producing religious mobilities, connections and networks across nation borders. At the same time, they offer fascinating insights into the diversified ways alternative actors and channels weave together religious migrants’ imaginations, practices and experiences, formulating new, complex forms of religious (re)production in a transnational world. This special issue also highlights the creativity, flexibility and vitality of Asian religions in the 21st century modernity.