幼儿园区域游戏课程生发策略探索

新时代幼儿园区域游戏课程改革应正确处理游戏、课程、儿童学习与发展三者的关系,以游戏为课程的生成源,依托 课程促进儿童的学习与发展。主要教育策略建议：坚持儿童本位,探索区域游戏课程生成之源;立足儿童问题,探寻区域 游戏课程生长之径;适时支架助力,探寻区域游戏课程发展之策。     

民意调查在中国的发展和应用

民意调查在中国出现较早,但其发展还是始于党的十一届三中全会。1992年以后,中国的民意调查形成了调查主体、资金来源、调查内容多元化的发展态势,并且具有了新的发展特点。民意调查应用于社会的各个方面,主要表现在反映社会评价、辅助决策、社会监测、舆论沟通和学术促进等几个方面。     

住宅价格涨跌幅、波动非对称性与空置量关系的实证研究

采用门限ARCH模型研究了我国住宅价格涨跌幅、波动的非对称性与住宅空置量之间的动态关系,实证结论表明:我国住宅空置量与住宅价格涨跌和住宅价格波动呈负相关关系;住宅价格波动具有非对称性,低住宅空置时住宅价格波动大于高空置时的住宅价格波动;同时住宅价格波动具波动聚集性;政府及时披露住宅空置信息和合理调控住宅空置水平,有利于住宅市场的稳定发展。     

As low birth weight babies grow,can well-educated parents buffer this adverse factor? A research note

This research note combines two national Taiwanese data sets to investigate the relationships among low birth weight (LBW) babies, their parents' educational levels, and their future academic outcomes. We find that LBW is negatively correlated with the probability of such children attending college at age 18; however, when both parents are college or high school graduates, such negative effects may be partially offset. We also show that discrimination against daughters occurs, but only for daughters who were LBW babies. Moreover high parental education can buffer the LBW shock only among moderately LBW children (as compared with very LBW children) and full-term LBW children (as compared with preterm LBW children).     

21世纪世界人口面临的主要问题与挑战

人类跨入 2 1世纪 ,在迅速发展经济的同时 ,也面临着一些问题和挑战。世界人口数量急剧增长 ,人口倍增时间大为缩短。人口老化速度加快 ,在 2 1世纪的前 10年 ,世界各国都将出现人口老龄化趋势。随着现代化工业和市场经济的飞速发展 ,全球人口城市化速度日益加剧。同时贫困人口问题困扰发展中国家。人类为了满足自身发展的需要 ,导致自身资源日益减少 ,生态环境日益恶化 ,如不设法采取补救措施 ,将会面临一场生态灾难     

Solving unobserved heterogeneity with latent class inflated Poisson regression model

Inflated data and over-dispersion are two common problems when modeling count data with traditional Poisson regression models. In this study, we propose a latent class inflated Poisson (LCIP) regression model to solve the unobserved heterogeneity that leads to inflations and over-dispersion. The performance of the model estimation is evaluated through simulation studies. We illustrate the usefulness of introducing a latent class variable by analyzing the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) data, which contain several excessive values and characterized by over-dispersion. As a result, the new model we proposed displays a better fit than the standard Poisson regression and zero-inflated Poisson regression models for the inflated counts.KEYWORDS: Inflated data, latent class, heterogeneity, Poisson regression, over-dispersion     

A multivariate zero-inflated binomial model for the analysis of correlated proportional data

In this paper, a new multivariate zero-inflated binomial (MZIB) distribution is proposed to analyse the correlated proportional data with excessive zeros. The distributional properties of purposed model are studied. The Fisher scoring algorithm and EM algorithm are given for the computation of estimates of parameters in the proposed MZIB model with/without covariates. The score tests and the likelihood ratio tests are derived for assessing both the zero-inflation and the equality of multiple binomial probabilities in correlated proportional data. A limited simulation study is performed to evaluate the performance of derived EM algorithms for the estimation of parameters in the model with/without covariates and to compare the nominal levels and powers of both score tests and likelihood ratio tests. The whitefly data is used to illustrate the proposed methodologies.     

论文化地理学视阈中的河朔诗派

河朔诗派是明末清初崛起于燕赵大地的一个诗歌流派,它的形成及诗歌创作与诗论主张包含了特定时间和空间的社会文化背景.从文化地理学视阈来看,可以说正是独特的山水风物孕育了河朔诗派的诗歌情怀,浓烈的燕赵情怀确立了河朔诗派的诗歌生命基调,特殊的时空熔铸了河朔诗派愤激而和平的诗学倾向.     

马克思的实践哲学与现代性批判

理性主义观念、主体性原则以及文化分化的表征不仅构成了现代性的主要方面,而且也成为现代性危机的主要原因.因此,我们需要一种新的哲学观念来反思现代性的发展,并在此基础上重新构建人与世界、人与人的关系.而马克思的实践哲学中蕴含的对实践概念和实践活动的理解则成为反思和批判现代性的重要视角.     

产权制度与两种含义所有制的关系——兼论所有制理论创新的理论依据和必要性

所有制分为狭义和广义,狭义所有制是生产资料占有方式,广义所有制是生产关系总和.产权制度是各经济主体之间权、责、利关系的设定及其处理规则的制度安排.三者之间既有区别又有联系.区别主要表现在:内涵不同;在经济体中的地位和功能不同;变化的结果不同.联系在于:三者共同构成一个制度体系;现实的所有制关系和经济成分需要产权制度来规范和实现.三者的辩证统一关系说明所有制理论中不能没有产权理论.中国经济改革与发展必须由富含产权理论的所有制理论作指导,但传统所有制理论中产权理论不足.我们必须在充分挖掘马克思所有制理论中的产权理论基础上,批判地吸收西方产权理论的优秀成果,丰富、创新传统所有制理论,使马克思主义所有制理论更具指导性.