Models for surveillance data under reporting delay: applications to US veteran first-time suicide attempters

Surveillance data provide a vital source of information for assessing the spread of a health problem or disease of interest and for planning for future health-care needs. However, the use of surveillance data requires proper adjustments of the reported caseload due to underreporting caused by reporting delays within a limited observation period. Although methods are available to address this classic statistical problem, they are largely focused on inference for the reporting delay distribution, with inference about caseload of disease incidence based on estimates for the delay distribution. This approach limits the complexity of models for disease incidence to provide reliable estimates and projections of incidence. Also, many of the available methods lack robustness since they require parametric distribution assumptions. We propose a new approach to overcome such limitations by allowing for separate models for the incidence and the reporting delay in a distribution-free fashion, but with joint inference for both modeling components, based on functional response models. In addition, we discuss inference about projections of future disease incidence to help identify significant shifts in temporal trends modeled based on the observed data. This latter issue on detecting ‘change points’ is not sufficiently addressed in the literature, despite the fact that such warning signs of potential outbreak are critically important for prevention purposes. We illustrate the approach with both simulated and real data, with the latter involving data for suicide attempts from the Veteran Healthcare Administration.     

上市公司流动性的探索研究——基于对无形资产的分析

公司流动性已成为当前上市公司关注的热点之一.无形资产作为神奇的财富资源,能量巨大,但目前理论界对其与公司流动性的关联研究较少.在对公司流动性概念与流动机理进行描述的基础上,从无形资产流动性的现状人手,沿着价值变现的主线,分析了无形资产流动性的经济学理论依据,探讨了无形资产流动性的实现路径,认为无形资产价值变现是拓宽公司流动性广阔前景的新领域.     

我国快递业竞争现状及对策研究

我国邮政业在破除垄断、引入竞争后,邮政系统内的快递企业和非邮政系统的快递企业在快递市场份额上争夺日趋激烈,邮政与非邮政快递企业之间的冲突与摩擦增多.同时,邮政行业管制与一般竞争管制对邮政快递经营活动的管辖权也存在着冲突与重复.为履行我国的入世承诺及协调各行为主体之间的关系,以最大限度地减少干预、鼓励竞争、规范竞争秩序,我国快递业应加快制定相关的法律法规,完善邮政管制立法;完善我国快递行业竞争政策的执行机制,防止多方管制;建立执行明确、法律健全的反垄断法的监控和执行体系.     

UN Rescuing Child Soldiers Programme (UN-RCSP) Return the Childhood to Children

Child soldiering is not only a security issue, but also a humanitarian issue. The UN Rescuing Child Soldiers Program (UN-RCSP) is a coordinative and complementary institution for child soldiers’ governance. Although UN-RCSP is different from functional organizations which are prevalent in today’s global governance, it bears the same responsibility and similar missions with them. It does not mean to duplicate the works which have been done by other organizations, but tries to help all of the active IGOs, NGOs and government entities in this area become more efficient and coordinated.     

近三十年宪法学研究的回顾与展望(上)

中国宪法学研究经历20世纪80年代的恢复和发展之后,90年代开始反思,进入21世纪以来开始有了一定的崛起。回顾近三十年我国宪法学的研究发展状况,可以说还没有达到繁荣阶段,只是在朝着进入繁荣阶段的方向缓慢发展。尽管在主客观方面还存在着许多困难和障碍,但宪法学界正在解放思想、实事求是,努力为宪法学的繁荣开拓新的局面。展望未来,中国宪法学将更加关注中国问题,也将致力于建立完备的宪法学科体系及深入开展跨学科对话,并实现宪法学方法论的多元化。     

基于MRI图像的主动脉弓变形测量方法的研究

目的:准确测量主动脉弓的变形和位移,以便于主动脉弓血流动力学的仿真计算以及主动脉弓疾病的形态学诊断的进行。方法:本文首先基于主动轮廓模型(GVFSnakes模型)把MRI图像中的主动脉部分与胸腔分割开来,之后对人主动脉弓一个心动周期内的多幅MRI图像进行分析,建立主动脉弓运动的动态模型,并通过相关软件对主动脉弓的变形情况进行测量。结果:获得了一个行动周期内升主动脉根部,升主动脉中部,头臂动脉分支前,左锁骨下动脉分支后以及降主动脉中部等五个典型截面的变形量。结论:升主动脉中段的边界变形幅度较大,其他部分截面面积变化相对较平稳。通过对主动脉弓MRI图像的分析研究,可以准确地获取到血管边界的位移和变形信息。     

论七月派小说中的反叛型女性形象

七月派小说中的女性形象突破恪守妇道、信奉女德的传统模式，表现出敢于颠覆男权统治、背离传统价值取向以及向世俗道德标准挑战的无所畏惧的精神，彰显了女性生命的激情和力度。她们的出现为男权社会男性话语权的瓦解和女性话语权的不断提升提供了一种可能，显示了七月派小说家具有超越主流意识形态的革命性和前瞻性。     

柄海鞘神经节的透射电镜观察

本文利用透射电镜观察了柄海鞘(Styela clava)神经节的超微结构。结果显示,神经节的神经细胞内线粒体及核糖体含量丰富;含有大量散在分布的有颗粒囊泡和无颗粒囊泡;神经纤维为有髓神经纤维。     

翻译目的的实现与方法选择——结合《爱玛》的两个译本

翻译过程是涉及多种选择的复杂过程,现先介绍翻译的目的论,并提出翻译目的的多样性,结合《爱玛》的两个译本研究翻译的目的,以及为实现翻译的目的所选择的策略和方法。     

完美而残缺的主体——“文革电影”中的“新人”形象论析

培养新的人物,创造新的世界——"文革"时代的社会理想和诉求,经由伟人更具规定性的描述和设计,最终在"文革电影"中固化成一种概念和模式,而"文革电影"在实施完美主体的建构、将无产阶级思想教化发展到极端的同时,也就构成了对主体的最深刻的异化和分裂.