秦巴山区人口分布的影响因素分析及分区引导——以陕西省安康市为例

随着人口城镇化步伐的加快,秦巴山区人口空间结构将进一步重组。本文基于安康市的乡镇单元,采用空间分析合理划分人口集聚区的等级,结合地理加权回归模型分析人口密度与经济发展、社会发展、自然环境的空间相关性,试图揭示人口分布的主要影响因素,并针对不同人口集聚区进行策略引导。研究表明:1人口集聚区等级的划分可结合人口增速与人口总量;2不同影响因素对人口集聚产生的效应具有明显的差异性,如经济发展水平对人口集聚具有"马太效应";医疗条件对人口集聚的影响存在正效应,也存在着边际效用递增的规律;交通条件对人口集聚的影响存在边际递减效应;高程对人口聚集的影响存在负效应,并存在着边际效用递减;而耕地对人口集聚的影响与产业结构相关;3影响人口聚集的需求要素具有显著的差异,即经济发展需求>土地需求>便捷的交通需求>良好的医疗条件需求>低海拔需求。4对于秦巴山区来说,人口集聚的引导策略应结合"地情"进行统筹谋划,如人口高度集聚区以道路交通建设和集约高效利用土地为重点,人口次高度集聚区以道路交通建设为重点,人口中度集聚区以医疗服务设施完善为重点,人口低度集聚区以高山人口转移为重点。     

逻辑机器哲学的新发展

逻辑机器哲学是由美国当代哲学家、计算机科学家勃克斯提出的一种哲学思想,它是在信息时代计算机和网络技术迅猛发展的背景下提出的哲学新思维,又是对哲学史上的朴素唯物论、机械唯物论的继承与发展。在逻辑机器哲学中,拉美特利"人是机器"这个受尽奚落的命题成了其哲学思想的基本假定。它使得"人是机器"的哲学意蕴在计算机科学和信息技术蓬勃发展的今天可以得到新的阐释。尽管面临着许多挑战,但它为计算机科学哲学和信息技术哲学的诞生铺平了道路。近年来认知科学哲学的发展,把逻辑机器哲学研究推向了一个新的阶段,其标志是人工生命哲学的诞生。逻辑机器哲学研究为复杂系统科学视野下的人工生命及其哲学的新发展奠定了坚实的基础。     

The influence of acculturation level and family relationships on quality of life among U.S. Chinese older adults

ABSTRACT

The present study examined the influence of acculturation level and family relationships (i.e., positive family support and negative family strain) on quality of life (QOL), using the data from the Population Study of ChINese Elderly (PINE) in Chicago (N = 3159). Controlling for sociodemographic variables and health status, it was found that individuals’ acculturation level and positive family support were positively related to QOL, whereas negative family strain was negatively associated with QOL. More importantly, higher acculturation levels were associated with increased protective effects of positive family support and reduced risk effects of negative family strain on QOL among U.S. Chinese older adults.     

Additive hazards regression of current status data with auxiliary covariates

This paper discusses the regression analysis of current status failure time data arising from the additive hazards model with auxiliary covariates. As often occurs in practice, it is impossible or impractical to measure the exact magnitude of covariates for all subjects in a study. To compensate the missing information, some auxiliary covariates are utilized instead. We propose two easy-to-implement procedures for estimation of regression parameters by making use of auxiliary information. The asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators are established and extensive numerical studies indicate that both procedures work well in practice.     

十八世纪朝日文人的“文会”与 “文战”——以笔谈唱和集资料为中心

从17世纪初到19世纪初,朝鲜王朝多次向日本派出通信使团,朝鲜通信使团成员与日本文人进行了广泛的接触与交流,其中又以18世纪最为突出.朝日文人的交流可从“文会”与“文战”两个方面来看.具体来说,朝日文人展开“文会”的目的在于“追求文趣”与“收集资讯”,而对“中华文化”与“自身文化”、“性理学”与“古学”的不同看法,则是双方进行“文战”的诱因.到了18世纪后期,日本文人认同与提高日本文化地位的意识不断高涨,也激发了日本文人与朝鲜文人展开文战的底气.     

Adaptive multiple importance sampling for Gaussian processes

In applications of Gaussian processes (GPs) where quantification of uncertainty is a strict requirement, it is necessary to accurately characterize the posterior distribution over Gaussian process covariance parameters. This is normally done by means of standard Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, which require repeated expensive calculations involving the marginal likelihood. Motivated by the desire to avoid the inefficiencies of MCMC algorithms rejecting a considerable amount of expensive proposals, this paper develops an alternative inference framework based on adaptive multiple importance sampling (AMIS). In particular, this paper studies the application of AMIS for GPs in the case of a Gaussian likelihood, and proposes a novel pseudo-marginal-based AMIS algorithm for non-Gaussian likelihoods, where the marginal likelihood is unbiasedly estimated. The results suggest that the proposed framework outperforms MCMC-based inference of covariance parameters in a wide range of scenarios.     

Objective Bayesian inference for the ratio of the scale parameters of two Weibull distributions

The Weibull distribution is widely used due to its versatility and relative simplicity. In our paper, the non informative priors for the ratio of the scale parameters of two Weibull models are provided. The asymptotic matching of coverage probabilities of Bayesian credible intervals is considered, with the corresponding frequentist coverage probabilities. We developed the various priors for the ratio of two scale parameters using the following matching criteria: quantile matching, matching of distribution function, highest posterior density matching, and inversion of test statistics. One particular prior, which meets all the matching criteria, is found. Next, we derive the reference priors for groups of ordering. We see that all the reference priors satisfy a first-order matching criterion and that the one-at-a-time reference prior is a second-order matching prior. A simulation study is performed and an example given.     

Gender differences in the experience of loneliness in U.S. Chinese older adults

This study aimed to explore the gender differences in the experiences of loneliness in the U.S. Chinese older population. The data were drawn from the PINE study, a population-based study of U.S. Chinese adults aged 60 years and older. The Revised–University of California at Los Angeles Loneliness Scale (R-UCLA) was used to measure loneliness. Overall, older Chinese women (28.3%) had a higher rate of loneliness than older men (23.3%, p < .001). In particular, women were more likely to sometimes or often experience a lack of companionship than men (22.9% vs. 17.3%, p < .001). Older women living with fewer people, with lower health status, poorer quality of life, and worsening health changes over the past year were more likely than men to experience any loneliness. This study indicates that gender differences exist in the prevalence, symptoms, and correlates of loneliness. Longitudinal studies should be undertaken to understand gender differences in risk factors and outcomes of loneliness.     

缺失与干预:民族地区文化自觉的实证研究——基于广西GZ仫佬族乡的调查

文化自觉是生活在特定文化中的人们对其文化的过去、现在及将来发展的理解、认同及创新的状态,文化自觉本质上是对文化价值的自信与觉醒,是文化自信的前提与基础.文化自觉是全球化下对后发国家与民族提出的一个重大挑战.少数民族文化是中华文化的重要组成部分,亦面临文化自觉与文化自信的问题.基于GZ仫佬族乡的调查发现,文化自觉的缺失源于生存与文化冲突中的主动放弃、现代文明冲击的无奈应对及现代学校教育的潜移默化.由此提出政府-市场-村庄三位一体的导引文化自觉的动力机制,即作为推动文化自觉主导力量的地方政府、以资本下乡形式的市场力量和以村规民约为主要形式的村庄力量共同作用以实现少数民族地区的文化自觉.