族群工具化:理论探讨与中国现状

西方社会学界较早关注族群工具化现象,一些学者认为现代社会的族群并非简单的文化群体,而是一种社会群体间相互竞争的工具.中国也存在族群工具化现象,部分地方、群体精英有意识通过对族群意识的操弄,以实现自己特殊的社会目标.族群工具化现象的背后,有着许多方面的诱因.族群工具化现象对中国政府重视区域间、群体间发展差距有积极作用.但总体而言,族群工具化对中国社会的影响是消极甚至危险的,过度工具化的族群会导致社会成员日益碎片化,社会矛盾冲突激化.     

发展“藏羌文化产业”的理路与策略

中国的文化发展和文化产业,正遭遇现代西方文化+中国传统文化+红色革命文化的"三重门"困惑。灾后重建,千方百计,抢救、恢复、保护和发展藏羌文化,乃其关键一端;而以发展文化产业来推动抢救、恢复、保护和发展藏羌文化,乃其关键一处。可以依循"文化差异-文化产业特色-市场区隔定位"的理路推进文化产品的开发。藏羌文化滋养于岷江,古蜀文化源于岷江,发展藏羌文化与产业,自然该抓住"岷江文化",不仅有利于保护母亲河岷江,而且也是阿坝州发展藏羌文化产业的一个战略切入点。发展藏羌文化产业,需要把藏文化元素、羌文化元素和藏羌文化元素同时代元素也就是市场需求结合起来。     

An Application of EM Algorithm to a Change-Point Problem

We consider the problem of change-point in a classical framework while assuming a probability distribution for the change-point. An EM algorithm is proposed to estimate the distribution of the change-point. A change-point model for multiple profiles is also proposed, and EM algorithm is presented to estimate the model. Two examples of Illinois traffic data and Dow Jones Industrial Averages are used to demonstrate the proposed methods.     

Vector random fields with compactly supported covariance matrix functions

The objective of this paper is to construct covariance matrix functions whose entries are compactly supported, and to use them as building blocks to formulate other covariance matrix functions for second-order vector stochastic processes or random fields. In terms of the scale mixture of compactly supported covariance matrix functions, we derive a class of second-order vector stochastic processes on the real line whose direct and cross covariance functions are of Pólya type. Then some second-order vector random fields in R^d${\mathbb{R}}^d$ whose direct and cross covariance functions are compactly supported are constructed by using a convolution approach and a mixture approach.     

Model averaging for M-estimation

M-estimation is a widely used technique for robust statistical inference. In this paper, we study model selection and model averaging for M-estimation to simultaneously improve the coverage probability of confidence intervals of the parameters of interest and reduce the impact of heavy-tailed errors or outliers in the response. Under general conditions, we develop robust versions of the focused information criterion and a frequentist model average estimator for M-estimation, and we examine their theoretical properties. In addition, we carry out extensive simulation studies as well as two real examples to assess the performance of our new procedure, and find that the proposed method produces satisfactory results.     

从耻感文化视角分析日本社会秩序现象

现代日本社会民众在日常生活以及应对突发自然灾害的过程中，表现出非常有秩序的现象。日本社会的良好秩序现象和日本社会长期以来深受“耻感文化”的影响、“耻感文化”在民众意识深处扎根有着不可分割的关系。“耻感文化”在日本社会有着深厚的社会文化基础，“耻”作为一种不知不觉的潜意识蕴藏于日本人的道德体系之中，制约着各种行为，贯穿于日常生活的全部。日本的“耻感文化”是中国儒家文化中解析出的一个文化元素，但又不同于中国社会的耻文化。日本“耻感文化”社会的形成是通过吸收外来文化并逐渐与本土的制度规范等相适应，外力作用导致了本土文化习俗与传统的突变形成的。中国传统文化的传入、日本人的共同体意识、等级意识、各种宗教对日本人的影响等是日本“耻感文化”社会形成的主要原因。“耻感文化”的形成和发展对日本社会影响巨大。     

“沿海新区带”:弓箭理论下的海洋发展立体布局

现有的沿海六大国家级新区分布形成了"弓形海岸线"。立足与此,构建"沿海新区带",能发挥新区各自海洋特色资源,形成齿轮咬合式的立体格局,产生弓形拉满之后的强大力度,有利于促进海洋经济发展。必须认识到沿海新区带整合发展的必要性,认识到立体格局的"沿海新区带"是开放之路,创新之路,共识之路,合作之路,交流之路,生态之路,共赢之路,是为推进我国海洋战略的实现积聚最大的整体动量。     

我国幼儿教师职业道德研究回顾与前瞻——基于2009至2018年CNKI学术期刊论文的分析

采用文献计量学研究方法和主题内容分析法，回顾了2009至2018年我国幼儿教师职业道德研究的概貌，发现该领域文献研究的热点方向依次为：幼师师德失范与因应对策、幼师专业学生职业道德培养、幼师师德的规范建构与评价等。为进一步推动我国幼儿教师职业道德研究，关切该问题的学者可以形成研究共同体，从均衡研究维度着手，不断拓展研究视野的广度，并通过开展后续研究推进成果转化。     

Regression analysis of case-cohort studies in the presence of dependent interval censoring

The case-cohort design is widely used as a means of reducing the cost in large cohort studies, especially when the disease rate is low and covariate measurements may be expensive, and has been discussed by many authors. In this paper, we discuss regression analysis of case-cohort studies that produce interval-censored failure time with dependent censoring, a situation for which there does not seem to exist an established approach. For inference, a sieve inverse probability weighting estimation procedure is developed with the use of Bernstein polynomials to approximate the unknown baseline cumulative hazard functions. The proposed estimators are shown to be consistent and the asymptotic normality of the resulting regression parameter estimators is established. A simulation study is conducted to assess the finite sample properties of the proposed approach and indicates that it works well in practical situations. The proposed method is applied to an HIV/AIDS case-cohort study that motivated this investigation.     

自媒体环境下大学文化建设的创新路径研究

阐释了自媒体及其后现代主义的文化特征,认为自媒体的迅猛发展,自媒体的后现代主义对大学文化的建设造成了一定冲击,大学文化建设在自媒体环境下面临着前所未有的机遇和挑战;在此基础上,提出自媒体环境下大学文化建设的应对策略:高校应重视对大学隐性文化的重视,加强大学文化媒体传播能力的建设,提升大学文化在价值信念上的影响力,践行社会主义核心价值观。