市场经济主导下佛山空间结构演变的影响要素分析

佛山从历史上著名的“四大名镇”到“珠三角制造业重地”,集合了历史文化、村镇经济、广州辐射的多重动力,佛山市行政区划调整已历时近十年,佛山空间结构的演变,已成为中国快速城镇化值得探讨的生动案例。2002年底,行政调整后的佛山市在战略规划中确定了“2＋5”的组团结构,而后又相继提出“中心组团”、“东平新城”的空间布局概念并成立了相应的管理机构,与此同时佛山市下辖的南海区和顺德区也在进行适应产业提升的空间重新布局,貌似无序的村镇布局在市场经济的主导下,能否不断加以改善并实现城市产业转型和生活品质的提升,本文试图以佛山活跃的村镇经济为背景,解析佛山空间形态形成的动力,探索行政意愿和市场导向共同作用下的空间结构演变。     

政府采购招标结构模型的非参数识别与估计

为了揭示政府采购市场的定价机制,探究招标活动的经济机理,本文首先提出了一种基于可观测成交价(即赢价)建立招标结构模型的方法,分析了博弈均衡的分布;然后讨论了该模型的非参数识别,提出了一种三阶段非参数核估计方法.最后,以中央单位集中采购打印机为例,估计了政府采购招标的成本分布和期望供给曲线.研究发现,当前的政府采购机制改革有效地降低了采购成本;对于附加成本较高的商品,投标人存在成本转移行为.     

孙中山关于国共合作的心理场结构及其对最终走向的影响

关于孙中山第一次国共合作的态度,我们在以往的研究中或是对孙中山进行了过分拔高,忽视其阶级属性;或是将其过分贬低,仅仅等同为资产阶级利益的守护者。而引入心理场概念,对具体环境下孙中山心理场中影响国共合作的正负向量进行解析,可以还原其真实心态。这种心态也最终决定了第一次国共合作的走向。     

新疆三区革命史研究中的几个问题

新疆三区革命是在盛世才反苏反共,对新疆各族人民实行残酷的政治迫害和经济盘剥的反动政策逼迫下,在苏联的策动组织下发生的,是反对盛世才和国民党反动统治,争取民族平等和解放的革命斗争.由于各种复杂的原因,在革命过程中发生过分裂祖国,反汉排汉的严重错误,但最终接受了中国共产党的领导,为新疆的和平解放做出了重要贡献.     

医疗卫生产业化改革的障碍破解

理论界对于医疗卫生“市场化”和“产业化”尚未形成统一的概念和认识,目前对医疗卫生产业化的提法也比较谨慎。卫生产业的改革和发展是我国社会改革开放和现代化建设的重要组成部分。医疗卫生产业是渐进的,不断调整完善的长期过程,需要从观念上更新、完善相关法律法规及相关政策的支持。     

论环境犯罪的伦理特征及其刑法控制基础

环境问题的日益加剧要求刑法的介入,但环境问题的刑法控制必须建立在正确认识环境犯罪的伦理特征,进而确认环境刑法伦理基础的前提下.弱势人类中心主义在坚持人类利益以及倡导人与自然和谐相处的基调下,为环境犯罪的刑法控制提供了伦理基础,非人类中心主义却因其高层次的道德感,无法与作为代表最低限度道德的刑罚相融合.在弱势人类中心主义的基础上进行环境犯罪的控制研究,是我国当前应对环境问题的重要课题.     

On robustness of the Shiryaev–Roberts change-point detection procedure under parameter misspecification in the post-change distribution

The gist of the quickest change-point detection problem is to detect the presence of a change in the statistical behavior of a series of sequentially made observations, and do so in an optimal detection-speed-versus-“false-positive”-risk manner. When optimality is understood either in the generalized Bayesian sense or as defined in Shiryaev's multi-cyclic setup, the so-called Shiryaev–Roberts (SR) detection procedure is known to be the “best one can do”, provided, however, that the observations’ pre- and post-change distributions are both fully specified. We consider a more realistic setup, viz. one where the post-change distribution is assumed known only up to a parameter, so that the latter may be misspecified. The question of interest is the sensitivity (or robustness) of the otherwise “best” SR procedure with respect to a possible misspecification of the post-change distribution parameter. To answer this question, we provide a case study where, in a specific Gaussian scenario, we allow the SR procedure to be “out of tune” in the way of the post-change distribution parameter, and numerically assess the effect of the “mistuning” on Shiryaev's (multi-cyclic) Stationary Average Detection Delay delivered by the SR procedure. The comprehensive quantitative robustness characterization of the SR procedure obtained in the study can be used to develop the respective theory as well as to provide a rational for practical design of the SR procedure. The overall qualitative conclusion of the study is an expected one: the SR procedure is less (more) robust for less (more) contrast changes and for lower (higher) levels of the false alarm risk.     

Asymptotic expansions of density of normalized extremes from logarithmic general error distribution

Logarithmic general error distribution is an extension of the log-normal distribution. In this paper, the asymptotic expansions of densities of normalized maximum from logarithmic general error distribution are derived under two different kinds of normalized constants. By applying the main results, the higher-order expansions of moments of maxima are established.     

Parameter estimation for multivariate diffusion processes with the time inhomogeneously positive semidefinite diffusion matrix

Statistical inference for the diffusion coefficients of multivariate diffusion processes has been well established in recent years; however, it is not the case for the drift coefficients. Furthermore, most existing estimation methods for the drift coefficients are proposed under the assumption that the diffusion matrix is positive definite and time homogeneous. In this article, we put forward two estimation approaches for estimating the drift coefficients of the multivariate diffusion models with the time inhomogeneously positive semidefinite diffusion matrix. They are maximum likelihood estimation methods based on both the martingale representation theorem and conditional characteristic functions and the generalized method of moments based on conditional characteristic functions, respectively. Consistency and asymptotic normality of the generalized method of moments estimation are also proved in this article. Simulation results demonstrate that these methods work well.