大学生社会责任感培育的真理尺度与价值尺度

马克思主义理论课作为一个整体,旨在对大学生进行科学的世界观和方法论的教育,在提高他们社会责任感的培育中,不仅要教会他们如何学习和掌握真理,更要求其在实践中以真理为指导,通过改造客观世界,寻求真理与价值的统一和最佳结合.因此,在教学中要使大学生树立正确的世界观、人生观和价值观,通过“三观”的培养提高他们的社会责任感.为达到这一目的,就应该在培育过程中做到真理尺度与价值尺度的统一.     

基于系统动力学的公务员队伍素质分析方法研究

公务员队伍素质系统是一个抽象性、动态性的复杂系统,系统动力学在研究复杂性系统问题方面具有独特的优势。从方法论角度出发,运用系统动力学建模方法,构建包含素质存量、期望值、素质差距、调控系数和变化率五个参数的系统模型,并根据期望值和调控系数的不同取值进行模拟分析。在参数、结构、边界三方面对模型进行优化,预期系统动力学在公共管理领域的应用研究具有广阔前景。     

关于信息技术教师“三个问题”的思考

在教育信息化深入推进的背景下,考试招生制度的改革对信息技术学科建设和信息技术教师的发展具有“双重”重要影响。信息技术教师自身所固有的矛盾决定了该群体在基础教育教学信息化中的特殊职业角色和使命。本研究以“我是谁,我从哪里来,我到哪里去”为主线,对信息技术教师的内涵、结构现状、职业角色和职责范畴以及职业社会化等问题进行了尝试性“异位”思考,以期对改善信息技术教师的社会认同,促进信息技术教师专业发展具有一定的借鉴价值。     

A Semiparametrically Efficient Estimator of the Time‐Varying Effects for Survival Data with Time‐Dependent Treatment

The timing of a time‐dependent treatment—for example, when to perform a kidney transplantation—is an important factor for evaluating treatment efficacy. A naïve comparison between the treated and untreated groups, while ignoring the timing of treatment, typically yields biased results that might favour the treated group because only patients who survive long enough will get treated. On the other hand, studying the effect of a time‐dependent treatment is often complex, as it involves modelling treatment history and accounting for the possible time‐varying nature of the treatment effect. We propose a varying‐coefficient Cox model that investigates the efficacy of a time‐dependent treatment by utilizing a global partial likelihood, which renders appealing statistical properties, including consistency, asymptotic normality and semiparametric efficiency. Extensive simulations verify the finite sample performance, and we apply the proposed method to study the efficacy of kidney transplantation for end‐stage renal disease patients in the US Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients.     

Investigating determinants of inter-regional technology transfer in China: a network analysis with provincial patent data

This study examines the determinants of trans-regional technology transfer within China with patent license data. The weighted exponential random graph model is employed for network analysis to investigate the potential impact factors. Our findings have two main streams: First, most technologies are transferred from provinces with greater R&D input, e.g., Beijing and Shanghai, to economically developed provinces, e.g., Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang. The economic gap between provinces, which is viewed by most researchers to be one of the keys for technology transfer, has insignificant effects. This finding may be because eastern and western provinces are making competing investments and east provinces are investing much less in the west, which is different from what we usually see between developed and developing countries. Because there are competing relationships between provinces, it is common to see repeated investment and similar industry structures between provinces in China, which impose barriers on technology transfer. Second, provinces with more technologies imported from overseas countries acquire more patents from other provinces within China, which indicates a complementary relationship between overseas and domestic technologies. This finding may be partly because provinces acquiring more overseas technology may be in greater demand of additional complementary technology and partly because of the reverse engineering of overseas technology, which may be conducted by provinces with greater R&D input. Our findings should resonate for policy makers seeking to encourage trans-regional technology interaction and boost innovation capabilities.     

新常态下江淮城市群发展水平及其驱动因素研究

采用2000-2013年间面板数据,以江淮城市群为研究对象,测度其14年间的发展水平.在此基础上建立基于城市效应和时间效应的双向固定效应模型,分析江淮城市群发展的驱动因素.研究发现:科技创新、对外开放、制度因素、人文环境、基础设施要素对江淮城市群发展有正向驱动作用,而产业结构、企业因素、阶段性政府决策、人才培养要素对江淮城市群发展的贡献度有待进一步提升.据此提出对策建议:提高科技创新驱动能力,促进产业集约式发展;加大人才培养力度,提升对外开放水平;拓宽民营资本发展领域,优化中小企业投融资环境;完善基础设施建设,营造城乡人文环境,提升区域决策能力.     

后金融危机时代货币政策与国际资本流动研究进展

金融危机后,国际资本流动的结构和形态发生了显著变化.一方面,由于发达国家普遍实施以量化宽松为代表的非常规货币政策导致超低利率,国际流动性为“追逐收益”大规模流向新兴市场经济体.另一方面,新兴市场经济体企业以美元等发达国家货币在国际金融市场上发行债券,将发达经济体的货币政策和融资条件传递到国内.新兴市场经济体金融监管的难度以及经济的脆弱性大幅增加,货币政策的独立性也受到极大的挑战.在对文献进行梳理的基础上,本文认为短期内一定程度的资本管制政策有助于防范国际资本的骤进骤出,提高经济体的整体稳定性.     

On kernel machine learning for propensity score estimation under complex confounding structures

Post marketing data offer rich information and cost-effective resources for physicians and policy-makers to address some critical scientific questions in clinical practice. However, the complex confounding structures (e.g., nonlinear and nonadditive interactions) embedded in these observational data often pose major analytical challenges for proper analysis to draw valid conclusions. Furthermore, often made available as electronic health records (EHRs), these data are usually massive with hundreds of thousands observational records, which introduce additional computational challenges. In this paper, for comparative effectiveness analysis, we propose a statistically robust yet computationally efficient propensity score (PS) approach to adjust for the complex confounding structures. Specifically, we propose a kernel-based machine learning method for flexibly and robustly PS modeling to obtain valid PS estimation from observational data with complex confounding structures. The estimated propensity score is then used in the second stage analysis to obtain the consistent average treatment effect estimate. An empirical variance estimator based on the bootstrap is adopted. A split-and-merge algorithm is further developed to reduce the computational workload of the proposed method for big data, and to obtain a valid variance estimator of the average treatment effect estimate as a by-product. As shown by extensive numerical studies and an application to postoperative pain EHR data comparative effectiveness analysis, the proposed approach consistently outperforms other competing methods, demonstrating its practical utility.     

员工建言和沉默之间的关系研究:诺莫网络视角

作为两种代表性的员工自愿性工作行为,建言与沉默的研究一直各行其道.它们之间的关系是否如其字面意思一样对立相反是本研究拟解答的关键问题.以长三角地区制造类民营和外资企业的350组配对数据为样本,基于诺莫网络视角,本研究从情绪、认知和领导因素的角度,探讨了建言与沉默之间的关系.结果发现,建言与沉默是两个独立的构念.在情绪特征上,正性情绪会促进员工建言,而负性情绪既会促进员工建言,更会导致员工沉默;在认知特征上,自我效能感会促使员工建言,心理安全会促进建言且抑制沉默;在领导特征上,领导成员关系与建言正相关.在作用效能上,建言比沉默更会得到领导的赏识.研究结果综合支持了建言与沉默并非对立相反的观点.