网络文化发展困境与柔性管理

网络文化的崛起是新世纪人类文化发展的最重要现象。它的诞生给传统的社会发展和进步带来了诸多挑战。由于互联网及其网络文化的特殊性,传统的政府管理方式陷入两难选择。本文运用博弈论的原理揭示了网络文化的本质和发展规律,指出柔性管理是走出网络文化管理困境的必然选择。     

A Risk Analysis Model in Concurrent Engineering Product Development

Concurrent engineering has been widely accepted as a viable strategy for companies to reduce time to market and achieve overall cost savings. This article analyzes various risks and challenges in product development under the concurrent engineering environment. A three‐dimensional early warning approach for product development risk management is proposed by integrating graphical evaluation and review technique (GERT) and failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA). Simulation models are created to solve our proposed concurrent engineering product development risk management model. Solutions lead to identification of key risk controlling points. This article demonstrates the value of our approach to risk analysis as a means to monitor various risks typical in the manufacturing sector. This article has three main contributions. First, we establish a conceptual framework to classify various risks in concurrent engineering (CE) product development (PD). Second, we propose use of existing quantitative approaches for PD risk analysis purposes: GERT, FMEA, and product database management (PDM). Based on quantitative tools, we create our approach for risk management of CE PD and discuss solutions of the models. Third, we demonstrate the value of applying our approach using data from a typical Chinese motor company.     

东汉时期水利工程的修建及特点

东汉中央政权对水利工程的修建主要体现在大型水利工程的治理方面,但数量不多,同时,更关注对水利工程的管理,因为考绩制度的要求、农作技术的发展,地方官员对水利工程的修建十分重视。这类水利工程多是由旧有工程改造而来,并多集中在东汉前期。民间豪强修建的水利工程比较普遍,在规模和功能方面与政府所修建的并不相同,并且他们试图要染指地方公共水利工程。东汉经济形态的转变,豪强势力的逐渐扩张和经营形式的变化,依附关系的发展,以及政局的混乱等均是东汉水利工程格局的成因。     

危险犯的犯罪形态及其具体认定

关于危险犯的犯罪形态及其具体认定,我国刑法学界争论不休,这也给司法实务带来很大影响.这些理论争议通常脱离了中国立法与司法相冲突的实际,陷入误区.建议在分则增设相关条文予以明确规定,如果行为人虽然造成了法定危险状态而成立危险犯的既遂,但自动有效地防止了实害结果发生的,应当减轻或者免除刑罚处罚.增设条文之前,应尊重法律拟制,并立足中国刑法解决危险犯犯罪形态的具体认定问题.     

一种榫卯连接方钢管组装框架模型的荷载 位移曲线试验研究

提出一种榫卯连接方钢管组装框架结构。对两个方向的平面框架模型进行受力性能试验。介绍试验概况，给出框架模型的竖向荷载与挠度和水平荷载与水平侧移曲线，这些曲线介于刚节点框架和铰节点框架之间，属于半刚性节点框架的范畴。     

中美俄博弈模式分析:决策层级、动机及过程

以中美俄博弈的决策模式为研究对象,并通过列举中美和中俄两个具有合作性质的博弈案例,进而深入分析中美俄博弈的决策角色、决策动机和决策过程,指出决策角色可分为第一层级、第二层级和辅助层级,而国家利益是最重要的决策动机.为了追求决策效率,三国决策者紧密控制决策过程,防止其他权力部门分享决策权.     

莱布尼茨语言哲学的理性主义实质及其历史地位研究

莱布尼茨,作为"西方近代大陆理性主义哲学的最大代表和集大成者",其认识论思想的独创性体现在他关于认识起源、认识途径和真理问题的思考上,体现在他对语言的哲学思考上,表现在他关于"普遍字符"和"综合科学"的天才设想和"普遍代数学"的系统构建上。莱布尼茨的普遍代数学有着非常宏大而高尚的旨趣,意在"摧毁巴别之塔",谋取"人类普遍福利"。莱布尼茨的语言哲学不同于罗素的摹状词理论和维特根斯坦的语言游戏说和奥斯丁的言语行为理论,是一种独树一帜的理性主义语言哲学。他在语言哲学方面的天才设想"即使今天还依然是一个大有开发价值的宝藏"。     

Case–control genome-wide joint association study using semiparametric empirical model and approximate Bayes factor

We propose a semiparametric approach for the analysis of case–control genome-wide association study. Parametric components are used to model both the conditional distribution of the case status given the covariates and the distribution of genotype counts, whereas the distribution of the covariates are modelled nonparametrically. This yields a direct and joint modelling of the case status, covariates and genotype counts, and gives a better understanding of the disease mechanism and results in more reliable conclusions. Side information, such as the disease prevalence, can be conveniently incorporated into the model by an empirical likelihood approach and leads to more efficient estimates and a powerful test in the detection of disease-associated SNPs. Profiling is used to eliminate a nuisance nonparametric component, and the resulting profile empirical likelihood estimates are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal. For the hypothesis test on disease association, we apply the approximate Bayes factor (ABF) which is computationally simple and most desirable in genome-wide association studies where hundreds of thousands to a million genetic markers are tested. We treat the approximate Bayes factor as a hybrid Bayes factor which replaces the full data by the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters of interest in the full model and derive it under a general setting. The deviation from Hardy–Weinberg Equilibrium (HWE) is also taken into account and the ABF for HWE using cases is shown to provide evidence of association between a disease and a genetic marker. Simulation studies and an application are further provided to illustrate the utility of the proposed methodology.     

教育对犯罪率的影响研究

在理论上,教育同时具有犯罪预防效应和犯罪扩张效应,因此,教育对犯罪率的净影响是不确定的,同时,不同层次的教育对犯罪率的影响也并非是单调的。文章以中国2000～2008年的地区数据为样本,研究发现,总体的教育扩张显著降低了中国的犯罪率,这主要受益于小学、初中和高中教育,且其犯罪预防效应随着教育层次的提高而递增;但大学教育不仅未能降低中国的犯罪率,反而还显著促增了诈骗一类的高技能型犯罪。     

Developing a new BIC for detecting change-points

Usual derivation of BIC for the marginal likelihood of a model or hypothesis via Laplace approximation does not hold for a change-point which is a discrete parameter. We provide an analogue l BIC, which is a lower bound to the marginal likelihood of a model with change points and has an approximation error up to O_p(1) like standard Schwartz BIC. Several applications are provided covering simulated r.v.'s and real financial figures on short-term interest rate.