Simultaneous Over- and Underconfidence: Evidence from Experimental Asset Markets

In this paper we investigate individual overconfidence within the context of an experimental asset market. Overall, 72 participants traded one risky asset on six markets of 12 participants each. Our results indicate that participants are not generally prone to overconfidence. A comparison of two different measures of overconfidence, (i) subjective confidence intervals and (ii) differences between objective accuracy and subjective certainty, lead to a different classification of behavior in our data-set. We observe well-calibration as well as over- and underconfidence.     

Teamfähigkeit und Performance

Relationship between team competence and the group performance is analyzed in this paper. The underlying question is whether it is possible to create an ideal group, when focussing on personality characteristics of group members. For this purpose, the paper first describes that the performance of a group is influenced by its composition. The team competence concept is then described based upon team concept sub-components like communication and cooperation competencies. Integrating the concept of team competence into the “five factors personality model” shows that the personality characteristics of ‘agreeableness’ and ‘extraversion’ have the highest coverage towards the team competence concept. The studies cited in this paper do not show significant positive relations between these two team competence related personality characteristics and the performance of a team. Implications for the understanding of team competence are shown.     

The ethics of deception in social research: A case study

Using data from a study on courtship through personal advertisements, I argue that Kai Erikson's classic case against disguised observation is flawed. Certain kinds of deception are necessary to gather certain data in certain settings. I placed bogus ads in a personal column to obtain and analyze responses. The data would have remained inaccessible—indeed, many of the responses would not have existed in the first place—without some measure of deception. While deception was used, no risk whatsoever was posed to respondents. I further argue that several of Erikson's criteria of risk do not separate ethical from empirical questions; informants use very different criteria in evaluating the risk of harm to them posed by social research that sociologists use. The question of exploitation is more complex, since it has to be weighed against how much of an effort my respondents made and hence, what it is exactly that I took from them. A “panel of judges” decided that most of my male (but not my female) respondents would not have gotten dates with my hypothetical ad placers, and that the research method I used was not especially unethical.     

Testing for programme effects in a regression discontinuity design with imperfect compliance

Summary. The administrators of an office automation training programme in Italy enrolled applicants on the basis of their score in an attitudinal test, with low scoring subjects mandated out of the programme. Some of the applicants who were mandated out resorted to an alternative programme. To identify the effect of the programme by comparing participants with non-participants we need to account properly for both the selection by the score and the contamination of the comparison group by a number of non-complying subjects. The estimand resulting from using the mandated status as an instrumental variable for the actual status identifies the effect of the programme on complying subjects exhibiting a score in the attitudinal test in the neighbourhood of the threshold for selection. Simple nonparametric instrumental variable estimators based on the work of Robinson and Hahn and co-workers reveal that the programme had no effect on the probability of being in work several months after its completion. Simulation results show that in spite of the small sample size the test for the no-impact hypothesis has non-negligible power even at small departures from the null hypothesis. As a side-result Robinson's test turns out to be appreciably more powerful than the other test.     

The equivalence of united states census data for persons of Russian stock or descent with American Jews: An evaluation

While the U.S. Bureau of the Census has had a long-standing policy of abstaining from enumerating the religious beliefs or backgrounds of the American people, at least two-thirds of the Jewish population of the United States has been enumerated in decennial censuses and sample surveys in the guise of persons of Russian stock or origin. This has come about through the migration policy of the old Russian Empire and the statistical categories utilized by American immigration authorities and by the U. S. Bureau of the Census for immigrants and their children. Comparisons between the returns from an ethnic survey and a survey on the religious composition demonstrate the close congruence between persons of Russian stock or descent and American Jews on the national level.     

Targeting occupations with varying reputations to increase tax revenue

If the government's goal is to raise tax revenue in a cost-effective manner, which (if any) occupation categories could be targeted with a higher probability of an audit to yield increased revenue? Looking beyond mere opportunity to evade (e.g., self-employment) and starting from the premise that taxpayers in certain occupations evade more than others, the issue is whether these taxpayers respond to a change in the audit rate. Theory suggests that compliance increases in response to higher audit rates; the occupations with the higher evaders could therefore be targeted. This theory is tested by drawing a connection between occupation, reputation, and tax compliance. We assume that taxpayers in occupations with high need for reputation respond to a lower extent to increased tax audits than taxpayers whose achievement does not depend on reputation. The results support the effectiveness of raising tax revenue by targeting specific occupations, non-managers, with a higher probability of an audit.     

Demographic aspects of climate change mitigation and adaptation

This paper addresses the contribution of changes in population size and structures to greenhouse gas emissions and to the capacity to adapt to climate change. The paper goes beyond the conventional focus on the changing composition by age and sex. It does so by addressing explicitly the changing composition of the population by level of educational attainment, taking into account new evidence about the effect of educational attainment in reducing significantly the vulnerability of populations to climatic challenges. This evidence, which has inspired a new generation of socio-economic climate change scenarios, is summarized. While the earlier IPCC-SRES (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change—Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) scenarios only included alternative trajectories for total population size (treating population essentially as a scaling parameter), the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) in the new scenarios were designed to capture the socio-economic challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation, and include full age, sex, and education details for all countries.     

Public relations channel “repertoires”: Exploring patterns of channel use in practice

While public relations practitioners may use any number of channels to accomplish organizational objectives, research has focused on the use of single communication channels in isolation from other available channels. The purpose of this exploratory study is to identify the common combinations of channels or “channel repertoires” that practitioners use to reach their publics. Analyses of survey data (N = 504) of practitioners from five countries revealed four distinct patterns or repertoires of channels. The results also indicated that many public relations functions predict the use of certain repertoires, and explained which functions of public relations use more channels than others. The findings have implications for theory building, practice, and pedagogy on planning and engagement with publics.     

Settler colonialism and sociological knowledge: insights and directions forward

Theory and Society - What can the analytical framework of settler colonialism contribute to sociological theorizing, research, and overall understanding of the social world? This essay argues that...