The Interrelations Between Cohabitation,Marriage and First Birth in Germany and Sweden

We study the interrelationships between union-formation forms and fertility in Swedish and West German female cohorts born in 1949–1971. We apply simultaneous hazard models, permitting the presence of correlated unobserved heterogeneity. This method allows us to control for country-specific composition of the population with respect to several socio-economic variables, as well as with respect to unobserved factors jointly affecting childbearing and union formation behavior. Our results confirm that partnership formation and the transition to parenthood are partially interchangeable. Net of those selection effects, we find that the impact of being in a union on first birth is higher in Sweden than in Germany, in particular for cohabitation.     

Critical decisions and constitutional rules

Many constitutions specify procedures that allow critical decisions to be made with a different rule than routine decisions. We propose a theory of constitutional rules that explains why. The theory is based on the assumption that the type of a decision can be observed, but not verified. We characterize two classes of second-best constitutions, both with clear analogues in real world constitutions: (i) incentive scheme (IS) constitutions that elicit information about the type of a decision through a costly switching procedure and (ii) veto (VT) constitutions that grant limited veto powers to interested parties.     

Why still marry? The role of feelings in the persistence of marriage as an institution1

Despite cohabitation becoming increasingly equivalent to marriage in some of the most ‘advanced’ Western European societies, the vast majority of people still marry. Why so? Existing theories, mostly based on various approaches tied to cognitive decision‐making, do not provide a sufficient explanation of the persistence of marriage. In this article, we argue that feelings attached to marriage, i.e. the affective evaluation of those involved in a partner relationship concerning marriage as opposed to cohabitation, explain the persistent importance of marriage as an institution. We argue that socialization, biological and social‐structural factors affect these affective evaluations. We provide a test of our hypotheses using a longitudinal study of young adults in the Netherlands. The results of our analyses are consistent with a central role of feelings in the decision to marry, as well as with a role for key moderating factors such as gender.     

A Well-Being Indicator for the Italian Provinces

Social Indicators Research - In recent years, a significant number of papers has been published providing alternative measures of progress and well-being to Gross Domestic Product. Most of these...     

Bayesian estimation of the latent dimension and communities in stochastic blockmodels

Statistics and Computing - Spectral embedding of adjacency or Laplacian matrices of undirected graphs is a common technique for representing a network in a lower dimensional latent space, with...     

Bayesian analysis of dynamic magnetic resonance breast images

Summary.  We describe an integrated methodology for analysing dynamic magnetic resonance images of the breast. The problems that motivate this methodology arise from a collaborative study with a tumour institute. The methods are developed within the Bayesian framework and comprise image restoration and classification steps. Two different approaches are proposed for the restoration. Bayesian inference is performed by means of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms. We make use of a Metropolis algorithm with a specially chosen proposal distribution that performs better than more commonly used proposals. The classification step is based on a few attribute images yielded by the restoration step that describe the essential features of the contrast agent variation over time. Procedures for hyperparameter estimation are provided, so making our method automatic. The results show the potential of the methodology to extract useful information from acquired dynamic magnetic resonance imaging data about tumour morphology and internal pathophysiological features.     

Bayesian Inference Under Partial Prior Information

Partial prior information on the marginal distribution of an observable random variable is considered. When this information is incorporated into the statistical analysis of an assumed parametric model, the posterior inference is typically non‐robust so that no inferential conclusion is obtained. To overcome this difficulty a method based on the standard default prior associated to the model and an intrinsic procedure is proposed. Posterior robustness of the resulting inferences is analysed and some illustrative examples are provided.     

Extreme voting under proportional representation: the multidimensional case

We study the strategic behavior of voters in a spatial model of proportional representation, in which the policy space is multidimensional. Our main finding is that in large electorate, under some assumptions on voters’ preferences, voters essentially vote, in any equilibrium, only for the extreme parties.