Role-reversibility, stochastic ignorance, and social cooperation

This paper studies the effect of role-reversibility and stochastic ignorance, conditions that minimize the strategic bias of individual choice, on social cooperation. Under role-reversibility, each agent maximizes her expected payoff, knowing the status quo at the time of the action as well as the ex ante probabilities about her future roles. In contrast, under stochastic ignorance, players make their choices under a Harsanyi-type veil of uncertainty. Without the role-specific context influencing the judgment of the individual, cooperative norms emerging under stochastic ignorance are more likely to be close to first-best than are norms chosen under conditions of role-reversibility.     

Bayesian correlated factor analysis of socio-demographic indicators

Recent changes in European family dynamics are often linked to common latent trends of economic and ideational change. Using Bayesian factor analysis, we extract three latent variables from eight socio-demographic indicators related to family formation, dissolution, and gender system and collected on 19 European countries within four periods (1970, 1980, 1990, 1998). The flexibility of the Bayesian approach allows us to introduce an innovative temporal factor model, adding the temporal dimension to the traditional factorial analysis. The underlying structure of the Bayesian factor model proposed reflects our idea of an autoregressive pattern in the latent variables relative to adjacent time periods. The results we obtain are consistent with current interpretations in European demographic trends.     

Testing time series for interpolability and whiteness

We propose a test to decide if a time series is represented by its linear interpolator better than by its mean value. The same test can be employed to decide if a time series has to be considered white noise. The test is based on a new estimate of the index of linear determinism (Battaglia, 1983, Inverse autocovariances and a measure of linear determinism for a stationary process, J. Time Series Anal. 4, 79-87) and its asymptotic distribution is derived. Comparison with the popular Ljung-Box portmanteau test has been performed based on both asymptotic power and a simulation experiment. The new test     

The Sound of Silence. Lesbian,Gay, Bisexual and Transgender Discrimination in ‘Inclusive Organizations’

Most studies on diversity and discrimination in the workplace have focused on ‘visible’ minorities such as gender or race, often neglecting the experiences of invisible minorities such as lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) workers. In this paper we explore the practices of inclusion/exclusion of LGBTs in the workplace in Italian social cooperatives, which are specifically founded to create employment for people who are disadvantaged in the labour market. The study examines how organizations, which have an ethos focused on inclusion and mainly employ workers from specific social minority groups, manage the inclusion of LGBT workers. We also explore the experience of LGBT workers within these organizations. The paper reports that the culture of silence existing in the five organizations studied prevents LGBT employees from constructing a work identity which encompasses their sexual identity and prevents the organizations from achieving their aim of being fully inclusive workplaces.     

躲避危机的“三不”原则

坚持商业原则——在今天全球经济低迷时期，已经越来越重要，虽然这是企业抗击风险的保守方式，但是却令企业避免被大背景拖累。     

A sickle transition-rate model with starting threshold

Billari (2001) introduced a new type of single-spell parametric transition-rate model: transition-rate models with a starting threshold. In such models, the transition-rate function is composed of two additive terms. The first term is a constant that holds for any given duration; the second is a ‘traditional’ transition-rate function with the threshold as its time origin, and it is added after a certain threshold point. The possibility of allowing for the presence of long-term survivors in the social process has not yet been dealt with, and it is of specific interest in several domains of application. In this paper, we develop the specific case of the sickle model. We discuss its features, its implementation as a starting threshold model, and the estimation of its parameters. The sickle model with starting threshold is then applied to the union formation of Italian men and women, using the Fertility and Family Survey data.     

An automatic classification and robust segmentation procedure of spatial objects

This paper proposes a statistical procedure for the automatic volumetric primitives classification and segmentation of 3D objects surveyed with high density laser scanning range measurements. The procedure is carried out in three main phases: first, a Taylor’s expansion nonparametric model is applied to study the differential local properties of the surface so to classify and identify homogeneous point clusters. Classification is based on the study of the surface Gaussian and mean curvature, computed for each point from estimated differential parameters of the Taylor’s formula extended to second order terms. The geometrical primitives are classified into the following basic types: elliptic, hyperbolic, parabolic and planar. The last phase corresponds to a parametric regression applied to perform a robust segmentation of the various primitives. A Simultaneous AutoRegressive model is applied to define the trend surface for each geometric feature, and a Forward Search procedure puts in evidence outliers or clusters of non stationary data. An erratum to this article can be found at     

The Emergence of Lowest‐Low Fertility in Europe During the 1990s

Lowest‐low fertility, defined as a period total fertility rate at or below 1.3, has rapidly spread in Europe during the 1990s. This article traces the emergence of this new phenomenon to the interaction of five factors. First, tempo and compositional distortions reduce the total fertility rate below the associated level of cohort fertility. Second, socioeconomic changes—including increased returns to human capital and high economic uncertainty in early adulthood—have made late childbearing a rational response for individuals and couples. Third, social interaction effects reinforce this behavioral adjustment and contribute to large and persistent postponement in the mean age at birth. Fourth, institutional settings favor an overall low quantum of fertility. Fifth, postponement–quantum interactions amplify the consequences of this institutional setting when combined with ongoing delays of child‐bearing. The article concludes with speculations about future trends in current and prospective lowest‐low‐fertility countries.