Clustering work and family trajectories by using a divisive algorithm

Summary.  We present an approach to the construction of clusters of life course trajectories and use it to obtain ideal types of trajectories that can be interpreted and analysed meaningfully. We represent life courses as sequences on a monthly timescale and apply optimal matching analysis to compute dissimilarities between individuals. We introduce a new divisive clustering algorithm which has features that are in common with both Ward's agglomerative algorithm and classification and regression trees. We analyse British Household Panel Survey data on the employment and family trajectories of women. Our method produces clusters of sequences for which it is straightforward to determine who belongs to each cluster, making it easier to interpret the relative importance of life course factors in distinguishing subgroups of the population. Moreover our method gives guidance on selecting the number of clusters.     

Efficiency comparison of unrelated question models based on same privacy protection degree

In this study, the problem of estimating the proportion π _A of people bearing a sensitive attribute A is considered. Three dichotomous unrelated question mechanisms which are alternative to the well-known Simmons’ model are discussed and their performance is evaluated taking into account both efficiency and respondent privacy protection. The variance of the estimators of π _A is compared under equal levels of confidentiality measures introduced by Lanke (1976) and Leysieffer and Warner (1976).     

Money, Sociability and Happiness: Are Developed Countries Doomed to Social Erosion and Unhappiness?

Discovering whether social capital endowments in modern societies have been subjected or not to a process of gradual erosion is one of the most debated topics in recent economic literature. Inaugurated by Putnam??s pioneering studies, the debate on social capital trends has been recently revived by Stevenson and Wolfers (2008) contending Easterlin??s assessment. Present work is aimed at finding evidence for the relationship between changes in social capital and subjective well-being in western Europe, Australia, Canada and Japan between 1980 and 2005. In particular, I would like to answer questions such as: (1) is social capital in western Europe, Canada, Australia and Japan declining? Is such erosion a general trend of modern and richer societies or is it a characteristic feature of the American one? (2) can social capital trend help explain subjective well-being trend? Therefore, present research considers three different set of proxies of social capital controlling for time and socio-demographic aspects using WVS-EVS data between 1980 and 2005. Present results are encouraging, showing evidence of positive correlation between several proxies of social capital and both happiness and life satisfaction. Furthermore, results show that during last twenty-five years people in some of the most modern and developed countries have persistently lost confidence in the judicial system, religious institutions, parliament and civil service.     

Preference Theory and Low Fertility: A Comparative Perspective

The discussion on the causes of the most recent fertility decline in Europe, and in particular on the emergence of lowest-low fertility, emphasizes the relevance of cultural factors in addition to economic ones. As part of such a cultural framework, the heterogeneity of preferences concerning the “career vs. family” dichotomy has been systematized in the “Preference Theory” approach developed by Catherine Hakim. This heterogeneity in preferences, however, has so far been underinvestigated in a comparative framework. This paper makes use of comparative data from the 2004/2005 Round of the European Social Survey to test the links between individual-level preferences and both fertility outcomes and fertility intentions, in a variety of societal settings. Results confirm an association between work–family lifestyle preferences and realized fertility in a variety of European countries, while they do not show a relationship between lifestyle preferences and fertility intentions. Results further support the existence of heterogeneous patterns of association between lifestyle preferences and fertility choices among welfare regimes.     

Attitudes, Norms and Perceived Behavioural Control: Explaining Fertility Intentions in Bulgaria

In this article, we study fertility decision-making through timing parity-progression intentions. The theoretical framework builds on Ajzen’s social-psychological “Theory of Planned Behavior”: intentions are seen as directly dependent on three components: attitudes, norms and perceived behavioural control. We study the case of Bulgaria, a “lowest-low” fertility country. In 2002, a sample survey containing a specially designed module was conducted. This module included an implementation of our framework, with a special attention to the links between normative pressure and the social network of respondents. Results show that the three components are broadly predictive of fertility intentions. More specifically, attitudes are more relevant than norms for higher parities. Socio-economic, ideational, psychological and social capital-based factors are relevant background determinants.     

Financial Innovation and the Transactions Demand for Cash

We document cash management patterns for households that are at odds with the predictions of deterministic inventory models that abstract from precautionary motives. We extend the Baumol–Tobin cash inventory model to a dynamic environment that allows for the possibility of withdrawing cash at random times at a low cost. This modification introduces a precautionary motive for holding cash and naturally captures developments in withdrawal technology, such as the increasing diffusion of bank branches and ATM terminals. We characterize the solution of the model, which qualitatively reproduces several empirical patterns. We estimate the structural parameters using micro data and show that quantitatively the model captures important economic patterns. The estimates are used to quantify the expenditure and interest rate elasticity of money demand, the impact of financial innovation on money demand, the welfare cost of inflation, and the benefit of ATM ownership.     

The Gender Wage Gap in Belarus

A new release of the Belarusian Household Survey on Incomes and Expenditures provides the unique opportunity for an in-depth study of the gender pay gap in Belarus. The econometric analysis involves estimates of augmented earnings equations, also corrected for sample selection bias, as well as for least absolute deviations estimates at different quantiles of the wage distribution. The results suggest that the gender wage gap is smaller than in other countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States and Central and Eastern European countries, as one would expect considering the slow transition process, and is reduced after controlling for unobservable characteristics. Moreover, the gap increases as one moves from the 10th to the 90th quantile. This means that having jobs providing generally higher levels of wages for a woman, it is more and more difficult to get the same wage as that of a man.     

Gender composition of friendship networks and age at first intercourse: a life-course data analysis

We investigate the impact of some characteristics of friendship networks on the timing of the first sexual intercourse. We assume that the gender-segregated composition of such networks explains part of the particularly late age at first intercourse in Italy. We use new data from a survey on sexual behavior and reproductive health of Italian first and second-year university students. The survey has been carried out in 15 different universities in 2000-2001 and it includes retrospective data on age at first intercourse, as well as retrospectively-collected time-varying measures for the gender composition of the friendship network at different ages, for almost 5,000 cases. After having described the data as transition frequencies, we use a Cox proportional hazards model with time-varying covariates. Results are in accordance with the hypothesis that having friendship networks that include more members of the other gender and talking about sex with friends increases the relative risk of first sexual intercourse.     

CLS asymptotic variance for a particular relevant bilinear time series model

The main purpose of this paper is to gain inference about the parameter estimated via the CLS method for a particular bilinear model. We propose a new CLS estimator which is strongly consistent and the CLT and LIL hold with milder conditions on the moments. Furthermore, we derive a closed form expression for the asymptotic variance of this CLS estimator.     

Aggregate age-at-marriage patterns from individual mate-search heuristics

The distribution of age at first marriage shows well-known strong regularities across many countries and recent historical periods. We accounted for these patterns by developing agent-based models that simulate the aggregate behavior of individuals who are searching for marriage partners. Past models assumed fully rational agents with complete knowledge of the marriage market; our simulated agents used psychologically plausible simple heuristic mate search rules that adjust aspiration levels on the basis of a sequence of encounters with potential partners. Substantial individual variation must be included in the models to account for the demographically observed age-at-marriage patterns.