Common ratio using delay

We present an experiment in which we add a common delay in a choice between two risky prospects. The results show that delay produces the same change in preferences as in the well-documented common ratio effect in risky lotteries. The added common delay acts as if the probabilities were divided by some common ratio. Moreover, we show that there is a strong magnitude effect, in the sense that the effect of delay depends on the magnitude of the outcome. The results are consistent with the recently introduced probability time trade-off (PTT) model by Baucells and Heukamp. We present a parameterization of the model based on the experimental results, showing that the value function exhibits increasing relative risk aversion, the weighting function is s-shaped, and the intrinsic discount rate is decreasing.     

Semidefinite Programming Relaxations for the Quadratic Assignment Problem

Semidefinite programming (SDP) relaxations for the quadratic assignment problem (QAP) are derived using the dual of the (homogenized) Lagrangian dual of appropriate equivalent representations of QAP. These relaxations result in the interesting, special, case where only the dual problem of the SDP relaxation has strict interior, i.e., the Slater constraint qualification always fails for the primal problem. Although there is no duality gap in theory, this indicates that the relaxation cannot be solved in a numerically stable way. By exploring the geometrical structure of the relaxation, we are able to find projected SDP relaxations. These new relaxations, and their duals, satisfy the Slater constraint qualification, and so can be solved numerically using primal-dual interior-point methods.For one of our models, a preconditioned conjugate gradient method is used for solving the large linear systems which arise when finding the Newton direction. The preconditioner is found by exploiting the special structure of the relaxation. See e.g., Vandenverghe and Boyd (1995) for a similar approach for solving SDP problems arising from control applications.Numerical results are presented which indicate that the described methods yield at least competitive lower bounds.     

General Representation of Epistemically Optimal Procedures

Assuming that votes are independent, the epistemically optimal procedure in a binary collective choice problem is known to be a weighted supermajority rule with weights given by personal log likelihood ratios. It is shown here that an analogous result holds in a much more general model. Firstly, the result follows from a more basic principle than expected-utility maximisation, namely from an axiom (“Epistemic Monotonicity”) which requires neither utilities nor prior probabilities of the ‘correctness’ of alternatives. Secondly, a person’s input need not be a vote for an alternative; it may be any type of input, for instance a subjective degree of belief or probability of the correctness of one of the alternatives. The case of a profile of subjective degrees of belief is particularly appealing, since no parameters such as competence parameters need to be known here.     

SEPARATION, WEAK EXOGENEITY, AND P-T DECOMPOSITION IN COINTEGRATED VAR SYSTEMS WITH COMMON FEATURES

The aim of this paper is to study the concept of separability in multiple nonstationary time series displaying both common stochastic trends and common stochastic cycles. When modeling the dynamics of multiple time series for a panel of several entities such as countries, sectors, firms, imposing some form of separability and commonalities is often required to restrict the dimension of the parameter space. For this purpose we introduce the concept of common feature separation and investigate the relationships between separation in cointegration and separation in serial correlation common features. Loosely speaking we investigate whether a set of time series can be partitioned into subsets such that there are serial correlation common features within the sub-groups only. The paper investigates three issues. First, it provides conditions for separating joint cointegrating vectors into marginal cointegrating vectors as well as separating joint short-term dynamics into marginal short-term dynamics. Second, conditions for making permanent-transitory decompositions based on marginal systems are given. Third, issues of weak exogeneity are considered. Likelihood ratio type tests for the different hypotheses under study are proposed. An empirical analysis of the link between economic fluctuations in the United States and Canada shows the practical relevance of the approach proposed in this paper.     

The problem of Iraqi nationalism

This article analyses the development of a tenuous Iraqi national identity since the creation of the Iraqi state in 1920. Informed by the ideas of Anthony D. Smith, Benedict Anderson and Eric Hobsbawm, it argues that various political actors in Iraq have sought to reshape historical memory and thus forge a national identity. Despite many setbacks and a long series of authoritarian regimes seeking to appropriate Iraqiness for their own political purposes, and recently the threat from Kurdish irredentism, this article nevertheless contends that an Iraqi cultural ‘ethnicity’ has been created over the past nine decades.