1966-1986年的意识形态

近20年——也就是1966至1986年——一切都在变,都在向不同的方向变,人的形象变得模糊不清,整个世界也在不断发生变化.变化不定成为一种破坏性因素,意识形态和重大的思想体系似乎被运动所取代.从批判的角度看,"空白"时代已经到来.而60年代则首先是以肯定为特点的时代,是产生"结构人"、提出科学性要求并坚信经济主义的时代.与此相协调的是:新的知识中删去了华而不实的东西,技术的地位大大超过政治、经济发展在满足民众需要的同时起到了镇静剂的作用.1968     

宗教多元性与认同性危机

现代末期的宗教及其未来 在新千年降临之际,宗教正在经历某些彻底 的变革:首先一个变革就是世俗化过程对于各种 传统宗教产生的巨大影响,这种世俗化以各种不 同的形式从基督教开始,在今天和未来将依然这 样进行下去。 我们正在经历的,毋宁说是伴随社会—文化     

Interstate Migration Has Fallen Less Than You Think: Consequences of Hot Deck Imputation in the Current Population Survey

We show that much of the recent reported decrease in interstate migration is a statistical artifact. Before 2006, the Census Bureau's imputation procedure for dealing with missing data in the Current Population Survey inflated the estimated interstate migration rate. An undocumented change in the procedure corrected the problem starting in 2006, thus reducing the estimated migration rate. The change in imputation procedures explains 90% of the reported decrease in interstate migration between 2005 and 2006, and 42% of the decrease between 2000 (the recent high-water mark) and 2010. After we remove the effect of the change in procedures, we find that the annual interstate migration rate follows a smooth downward trend from 1996 to 2010. Contrary to popular belief, the 2007-2009 recession is not associated with any additional decrease in interstate migration relative to trend.     

Polygyny, Partnership Concurrency, and HIV Transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa

We study the relationship between polygyny and HIV infection using nationally representative survey data with linked serostatus information from 20 African countries. Our results indicate that junior wives in polygynous unions are more likely to be HIV positive than spouses of monogamous men, but also that HIV prevalence is lower in populations with more polygyny. With these results in mind, we investigate four explanations for the contrasting individual- and ecological-level associations. These relate to (1) the adverse selection of HIV-positive women into polygynous unions, (2) the sexual network structure characteristic of polygyny, (3) the relatively low coital frequency in conjugal dyads of polygynous marriages (coital dilution), and (4) the restricted access to sexual partners for younger men in populations where polygynous men presumably monopolize the women in their community (monopolizing polygynists). We find evidence for some of these mechanisms, and together they support the proposition that polygynous marriage systems impede the spread of HIV. We relate these results to the debate about partnership concurrency as a primary behavioral driver for the fast propagation of HIV in some parts of sub-Saharan Africa.     

This Harlem life: black families and everyday life in the 1920s and 1930s

This article uses Probation Department files to reconstruct the lives of five ordinary residents of Harlem. It highlights what that black metropolis offered those outside the political and cultural elite, who have dominated historical scholarship, showing how ordinary blacks negotiated the challenges of life in northern neighborhoods, and drew on institutions and organizations, to establish and sustain new lives. We offer the kind of individualized perspective on everyday life that other scholars have provided for high culture, but which does not exist for other realms of existence in Harlem, even in early twentieth century sociological studies of black life. Where scholars seeking to distinguish the neighborhood from a slum have pointed to the prevailing pride and self-confidence of its residents, this article directs attention to more immediate, concrete supports that sustained and enriched life in Harlem. Relationships with spouses, children, siblings and cousins sustained individuals faced with the social reality of living in overcrowded, deteriorating, disease infested housing, subject to the racism of white police, politicians and employers; so too did friendships made in nightclubs, speakeasies, dances and movie theatres, and membership of churches, fraternal organizations, social clubs, and sports clubs and teams.     

Conflicts of interest in vaccine safety research

Conflicts of interest (COIs) cloud vaccine safety research. Sponsors of research have competing interests that may impede the objective study of vaccine side effects. Vaccine manufacturers, health officials, and medical journals may have financial and bureaucratic reasons for not wanting to acknowledge the risks of vaccines. Conversely, some advocacy groups may have legislative and financial reasons to sponsor research that finds risks in vaccines. Using the vaccine-autism debate as an illustration, this article details the conflicts of interest each of these groups faces, outlines the current state of vaccine safety research, and suggests remedies to address COIs. Minimizing COIs in vaccine safety research could reduce research bias and restore greater trust in the vaccine program.     

Prediction of accrual closure date in multi-center clinical trials with discrete-time Poisson process models

In a phase III multi‐center cancer clinical trial or a large public health study, sample size is predetermined to achieve desired power, and study participants are enrolled from tens or hundreds of participating institutions. As the accrual is closing to the target size, the coordinating data center needs to project the accrual closure date on the basis of the observed accrual pattern and notify the participating sites several weeks in advance. In the past, projections were simply based on some crude assessment, and conservative measures were incorporated in order to achieve the target accrual size. This approach often resulted in excessive accrual size and subsequently unnecessary financial burden on the study sponsors. Here we proposed a discrete‐time Poisson process‐based method to estimate the accrual rate at time of projection and subsequently the trial closure date. To ensure that target size would be reached with high confidence, we also proposed a conservative method for the closure date projection. The proposed method was illustrated through the analysis of the accrual data of the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project trial B‐38. The results showed that application of the proposed method could help to save considerable amount of expenditure in patient management without compromising the accrual goal in multi‐center clinical trials. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sex for you, but not for me: discontinuity in undergraduate emerging adults' definitions of "having sex"

The purpose of this study was to determine if undergraduates (N = 839) apply the same standard to themselves when labeling a behavior "having sex" as they apply to their significant others if those persons engage in the same behaviors outside the relationship. Using a between-participants design, one form asked participants if each of 11 behaviors constituted having sex if they engaged in the activity; the other form asked participants if each of the same behaviors constituted having sex if their significant other engaged in the activity outside their relationship. Participants answering for themselves were less likely to indicate a behavior was having sex for all behaviors except penile-anal and penile-vaginal intercourse. Men were also more likely than women to indicate most behaviors were having sex. The authors discuss what they define as a definitional discontinuity in undergraduate emerging adults' definitions of having sex. Fundamental attribution error (FAE) and emerging adulthood literature are used to explain the findings. Health and relationship implications are identified.     

An overview of elder abuse and neglect in Australia

Only relatively recently has the issue of elder abuse come to prominence in Australia. Until the late 1980s it was a hidden problem with little knowledge of its presence. Attention was drawn to elder abuse after the publication of a number of reports and research projects, allowing the development of responses at national and state levels. This paper gives an overview of the development of elder abuse as a social, legal and medical issue in Australia, and describes the diverse range of responses from the national, state and territory governments.