Temporary versus permanent population mobility in Melanesia: a case study from Vanuatu

A case study of temporary and circular Melanesian population mobility and labor migration focuses on the island of Paama in the Republic of Vanuatu (an archipelago of 80 islands) in Melanesia and on urbanization, which is a relatively recent phenomena. A critical analysis is provided of temporary and permanent migration and methodological inadequacies in explanations of mobility. Mobility is neither a cause nor a result of economic, social, and political change; it is the interrelationship among the general structural setting, people's personal and social environment, and their perceptions and actions. In the case of Paamese mobility, changes appeared in the source of migration and destination areas. There was a period of original land acquisition, when migrants returning from Queensland with tools were the only ones who could actually acquire land. Inequalities of land access date from this period. The population is dependent on external income sources as well as the need for plantation migration and a huge increase in bridewealth. Concurrently, "kampani" or community work, which ensures the continuous authority of local chiefs and village elders, creates problems for those seeking work for their own families. These conditions encourage out-migration. Rapid urban growth began in the 1960s with a diversified economy. Employment opportunities were available for women; single employee residence spaces declined. This meant families could permanently settle in urban areas. Retirement benefits were also available and contributed to securing permanent migration. There were growing needs for a stable, skilled labor force. Another change was the abolishment of the tripartite colonial administration. Rural disasters and price declines also triggered urban migration. Migration to the town of Port Vila by Paamese men and women between 1953 and 1982 is analyzed, based on 258 employment related mobility histories collected in 1982-83. Two processes are evident: continued periodic, short-term, rural-based circulation and permanent urban migration among Paamese to Port Vila. A major reversal of mobility is unlikely in the future. The reasons why are indicated.     

The recent socio-economic transformations in Italy and its internal and external migratory movements

Recent migration trends involving Italy are described. The authors note that Italy has changed from a manpower-exporting country to a labor-importing country. Consideration is also given to changes in internal migration patterns.     

Structural shifts in the employment of foreign workers in Austria

The full economic importance of immigration becomes clear only when one examines the concentration of immigrant workers in certain industries and occupations, and this is done in the case of Austria to show the degree of segmentation of the labor market between indigenous and foreign labor. In the course of the 1960s the employment of foreign labor gained importance in Austria. As a consequence, bilateral agreements with the major recruiting countries were made, e.g., with Spain in 1962 and 1969, with Turkey in 1964, and with Yugoslavia in 1966. The reason for the increasing demand for foreign labor was the short supply of indigenous labor due to increasing participation rates and strong economic growth. The demand-pull for foreign labor gained momentum with the onset of the economic boom in 1970, so that by the end of 1973 the number of foreign workers had doubled in comparison to 1970. The 226,800 foreign workers accounted for 8.7% of total employment. The 1974-75 recession and the weak economic development ever since resulted in a decreasing demand for labor. At the same time, the supply of indigenous labor increased as a consequence of a demographic effect and because of increasing participation rates of women. From 1981 to the present, foreign employment decreased again due to the unusually long period of economic stagnation. During 1983, 145,300 foreign workers were engaged, i.e., 5.3% of total employment. The structure for foreign employment now differs greatly from that in the 1960s. The share of women in foreign employment has increased steadily from some 20% in the early 1960s to 31% in 1973 and 40% in 1983 -- a value comparable to the Austrian female share in employment. The reduction of foreign employment since 1973 affected, above all, Yugoslav men. the share of Yugoslavs in foreign employment decreased from 196,300 or 79% in 1973 to 92,200 or 61.7% in 1983. With the duration of foreign employment rising, the disribution of foreign labor over economic branches increased. In the early 1960s the employment of foreign workers was concentrated in 3 branches -- the construction sector (32% of all foreign workers), metal industries (16%), and textile industries (10%). In 1982 only 1/3 of all foreign workers were still employed in these branches as an infiltration by foreign labor had taken place in all sectors. The services sector showed the greatest increase in foreign employment since 1975. There has never been as strong a concentration of 1 nationality in a particular economic branch as in Switzerland, Germany, or France. Case studies in Austria reveal that it was an explicit policy for firms (and also unions and entrepreneur representatives) not to depend on only 1 nationality of foreign workers. According to the case studies, about 1/3 of all foreign workers today occupy jobs which are in direct competition with indigenous labor. Another 1/3 fill jobs which are complementary to indigenous labor. For the remainder it is difficult to say to what extent they belong to one or the other segment of the labor market, because there is no information available on the occupational job structure.     

空间嵌入视角下民族互嵌型社区的形成与发展——新疆塔城哈尔墩社区的个案

文章基于新疆塔城哈尔墩社区的田野调查,从空间嵌入的视角对该民族互嵌型社区形成和发展的历程,即社区的生命史进行描述和分析。调查发现,该社区的生命史反映了清末以来各民族人口向塔城迁移汇聚的历史进程,是塔城各民族由“小聚居”逐渐走向“嵌入”历程的一个缩影。文章认为,应加强对历史上形成并延续至当下的民族互嵌型社区的调查和研究,以空间嵌入为“起手棋”,关照社区生命史与族群生活史的互构,并将社区的小历史嵌入于整体社会的大历史中,进而从“国家—区域—地方”三个维度的互动中对这类社区的形成与发展进行解释。     

Poisson regression with misclassified counts: application to cervical cancer

"Errors in disease classification can give misleading inferences for covariate effects when the probability of error is itself related to the covariates. More accurate inferences are possible using supplemental data on both true and fallible disease counts at various covariate levels. We present a method for incorporating such supplemental data into disease rate regression and use it to show that, although observed intercountry differences in European cervical cancer mortality rates are exaggerated by errors in death certification, they are not completely explained by such errors." The data concern Belgium, England and Wales, France, and Italy.     

Population growth,farmland, and the long-run standard of living

This paper studies the natural-resources element in the theory of population growth over the very long run. In the context of the stock of land and Malthusian crises in earlier times, the model shows how resources have become more available rather than more scarce, even as population and income have increased.The paper sketches a mechanism which, added to the Malthusian system, leads to entirely different conclusions than does the Malthusian system. Using the illustration of food and land, change in knowledge and hence in the stock of resources is made a function of the stock of knowledge and the price of resources. The speed of adjustment depends on the economic and social climate for the development of new knowledge. Population growth first raises food and land prices, which then stimulate the creation of new resources, eventually leading to less scarcity of resources and lower prices than originally prevailed.That is, population growth creates new problems which in the short run constitute additional burdens which, in the longer run, lead to new developments that leave people better off than if the problems had never arisen.This paper benefitted from being presented in earlier draft at a Population Association of America meeting, to the Economic History workshop at the University of Illinois, and to a seminar of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population in New Delhi. We appreciate valuable comments on earlier drafts from Stanley Engerman, E. L. Jones, William McNeill, and two anonymous referees. Gunter Steinmann acknowledges financial support from the Volkswagen Foundation and a travel grant from Fulbright Commission.     

富民兴盟 教育先行

沙漠戈壁绵亘境内2/3的阿拉善盟,建国初(原阿拉善旗、额济纳旗)仅有小学4所,初中一所,在校生738人,教职工33人.民族教育尤为落后,蒙古族识字者仅有270余人,占人口总数的2.1%.1990年底,全盟所辖三旗(阿拉善左旗、阿拉善右旗、额济纳旗)、两场(吉兰太、雅布赖盐场)各级种类学校已发展到132所,在校生33656人,其中蒙授6878人,教职工专任教师3449人,蒙授800人.建盟十年间,全盟基本普及初等教育,扫除了文盲.中小学全部实现"一无两有"或"一无五有".危房下降到0.84%.小学、初中、高中专任教师合格率均列全区前茅.冲破樊篱走出新路1983年,鉴于陈旧落后的教育结构、教学方法、教学内容、教育管理体制等制约着教育的发展.盟委、行署制定了《关于当前教育改革若干问题的决定》,首先     

Capital accumulation,endogenous population growth,and Easterlin cycles

In this paper we attempt to explain the occurrence of population cycles in industrialised economies where the birth rate depends on the difference between the actual and the expected consumption rate. This model of an endogenously growing population brings together Easterlin's idea of an adapting aspiration level with the neoclassical optimal growth paradigm. It is shown that in this highly aggregated demo-economic system (i.e., without inclusion of the age structure of a population) swings both in the economic and demographic variables may exist. The reason behind this strange optimal behaviour is identified to be an intertemporal substitution effect between current and future levels of consumption.We wish to thank A. Novak for helpful assistance and an anonymous referee for useful comments. Financial support by the Austrian Science Foundation under contract No. P6601 is acknowledged.