制约县域经济发展的因素分析与对策建议

以县级行政区划为单位的县域经济是我国国民经济的基础,是建设小康社会的主战场。我国目前县域经济发展缓慢,已成为宏观经济可持续发展的瓶颈。虽然制约县域经济发展的障碍因素较多,本文仅从经济体制、行政体制、财政体制、金融体制、相关政策制度等方面进行分析,提出改革和完善体制、推行"一主三化"发展战略和制订各县域特色经济总体规划的对策建议。     

(Sub) Optimality and (non) optimal satisficing in risky decision experiments

We implement a risky choice experiment based on one-dimensional choice variables and risk neutrality induced via binary lottery incentives. Each participant confronts many parameter constellations with varying optimal payoffs. We assess (sub)optimality, as well as (non)optimal satisficing by eliciting aspirations in addition to choices. Treatments differ in the probability that a binary random event, which are payoff—but not optimal choice—relevant is experimentally induced and whether participants choose portfolios directly or via satisficing, i.e., by forming aspirations and checking for satisficing before making their choice. By incentivizing aspiration formation, we can test satisficing, and in cases of satisficing, determine whether it is optimal.     

Testing homogeneity in semiparametric mixture case–control models

Parametric and semiparametric mixture models have been widely used in applications from many areas, and it is often of interest to test the homogeneity in these models. However, hypothesis testing is non standard due to the fact that several regularity conditions do not hold under the null hypothesis. We consider a semiparametric mixture case–control model, in the sense that the density ratio of two distributions is assumed to be of an exponential form, while the baseline density is unspecified. This model was first considered by Qin and Liang (2011 Qin, J., Liang, K.Y. (2011). Hypothesis testing in a mixture case–control model. Biometrics 67(1):182–198.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], biometrics), and they proposed a modified score statistic for testing homogeneity. In this article, we consider alternative testing procedures based on supremum statistics, which could improve power against certain types of alternatives. We demonstrate the connection and comparison among the proposed and existing approaches. In addition, we provide a unified theoretical justification of the supremum test and other existing test statistics from an empirical likelihood perspective. The finite-sample performance of the supremum test statistics was evaluated in simulation studies.     

损失模拟模型的模拟与检验

为帮助精算师在不同的数据环境下选择最优的准备金评估方法,美国非寿险精算师协会组织开发了一个产生模拟索赔数据的开源软件系统——损失模拟模型,然而损失模拟模型是否能够按指定参数要求产生模拟数据需要进行检验.文章采用不同的参数估计方法和拟合优度检验方法对模拟索赔次数的分布、索赔额的趋势以及不同险种索赔次数之间的相关结构进行了统计检验,结果表明损失模拟模型对索赔次数的分布、索赔额的趋势能够产生一致的模拟,而对索赔次数数据之间相关结构的模拟存在不稳定性.     

中原经济区建设中的城建档案信息资源开发

城建档案信息对城市的发展具有重要价值。中原经济区建设战略的实施,必将使城市建设规模迅速扩大,由此形成的城建档案数量急剧增多。重视城建档案信息资源的收集、整理,充分开发利用城建档案资源,不断提高其利用率,是发挥档案信息资源效益服务中原经济区建设的一条重要途径。     

Usability in product design--the importance and need for systematic assessment models in product development--Usa-Design Model (U-D) ©

In product design, human factors are considered as an element of differentiation given that today's consumer demands are increasing. Safety, wellbeing, satisfaction, health, effectiveness, efficiency, and other aspects must be effectively incorporated into the product development process. This work proposes a usability assessment model that can be incorporated as an assessment tool. The methodological approach is settled in two stages. First a literature review focus specifically on usability and developing user-centred products. After this, a model of usability named Usa-Design (U-D?) is presented. Consisted of four phases: understanding the use context, pre-preliminary usability assessment (efficiency/effectiveness/satisfaction); assessment of usability principles and results, U-D? features are modular and flexible, allowing principles used in Phase 3 to be changed according to the needs and scenario of each situation. With qualitative/quantitative measurement scales of easy understanding and application, the model results are viable and applicable throughout all the product development process.     

… Do as the Romans do. A model of conformity with the endogenous formation of preferences

This note is an answer to a previous model on conformity in public goods contributions developed by Carpenter (2004), where a population evolution is allowed according to the standard replicator dynamic (Taylor and Jonker, 1978, Maynard Smith, 1982). To confirm his theoretical prediction, Carpenter developed an experiment showing that free riding actually grows faster when agents have the information necessary to conform. The model and the experiment are, however, inherently different, for the time scales of the model are not able to capture the short run convergence of behavior in the experimental laboratory.We here present a model of conformity which offers the same laboratory results as Carpenter without resorting to evolutionary models, and also gives agents the chance to adopt different strategies implying various levels of cooperation.     

Is Household Wealth Sustainable? An Examination of Asset Poverty Reentry After an Exit

This paper analyzed the influence of financial behaviors on the duration out of asset poverty while controlling for households’ life cycle and demographic characteristics. We found evidence for the existence of structural barriers to asset acquisition. Asset accumulation at or above levels equal to nine-months worth of income at the income-poverty level was important for improving a household’s odds of permanently escaping asset poverty, but a linear relationship between asset accumulation and the likelihood of returning to asset poverty did not emerge. Moreover, minimizing debt and diversifying the asset portfolio to include more productive assets were positively related to maintaining assets; but households should also consider the risks associated with portfolio allocations.     

论人力资本投资与健康城市建设

从人力资本投资角度研究健康城市建设,我们发现,健康城市建设与人力资本投资是一种相辅相成的关系。一方面,健康城市建设具有增进人力资本的巨大功能,健康城市的宗旨、过程和具体指标都起到了增加人力资本存量的客观效果;另一方面,人力资本投资推动了健康城市建设,对教育、医疗保健、劳动力流动等方面的投资是健康城市建设的先决条件。因此,必须优化人力资本投资的主体结构、类别结构、地区结构和城乡结构,推进健康城市建设。