利用非齐次指数函数构造GM(1,1)模型背景值的新方法

文章以灰色GM(1,1)模型背景值的优化为研究目的,讨论了传统背景值构造方法适用于低增长指数序列、对高增长指数序列拟合产生滞后误差的原因,提出了利用非齐次指数函数x(1)(t):A.eBt+C在区间[k-1,k]上与横坐标轴所围实际面积来构造背景值的新方法,并对其合理性进行了证明;在不同发展系数a条件下,比较了背景值构造方法对模拟和预测精度的影响,给出了新背景值条件下GM(1,1)模型的适用范围;大量的数据模拟和模型比较表明,新背景值构造方法提高了背景值的精确性及灰预测模型的拟合精度和预测精度.     

不完全数据多重插补的Bootstrap方差估计

当对插补所得的“完整数据集”使用标准的完全数据统计方法的时候,往往会低估插补估计量的方差.Bootstrap方法(自助法)是非参数统计中的一种重要的统计方法,是基于原始观测数据进行重复抽样,能充分的利用已知数据,不需要对未知总体进行任何的分布假设或增加新的样本信息,进而再利用现有的统计模型对总体的分布特性进行统计推断.本文首先运用多重插补的方法对缺失数据进行了插补,之后利用Bootstrap方法对插补之后的数据进行了插补统计量的方差估计,结果表明运用Bootstrap方法进行插补统计量的方差估计更科学更准确.     

Statistical modeling for Bayesian extrapolation of adult clinical trial information in pediatric drug evaluation

Children represent a large underserved population of “therapeutic orphans,” as an estimated 80% of children are treated off‐label. However, pediatric drug development often faces substantial challenges, including economic, logistical, technical, and ethical barriers, among others. Among many efforts trying to remove these barriers, increased recent attention has been paid to extrapolation; that is, the leveraging of available data from adults or older age groups to draw conclusions for the pediatric population. The Bayesian statistical paradigm is natural in this setting, as it permits the combining (or “borrowing”) of information across disparate sources, such as the adult and pediatric data. In this paper, authored by the pediatric subteam of the Drug Information Association Bayesian Scientific Working Group and Adaptive Design Working Group, we develop, illustrate, and provide suggestions on Bayesian statistical methods that could be used to design improved pediatric development programs that use all available information in the most efficient manner. A variety of relevant Bayesian approaches are described, several of which are illustrated through 2 case studies: extrapolating adult efficacy data to expand the labeling for Remicade to include pediatric ulcerative colitis and extrapolating adult exposure‐response information for antiepileptic drugs to pediatrics.     

Control‐based imputation for sensitivity analyses in informative censoring for recurrent event data

In clinical trials, missing data commonly arise through nonadherence to the randomized treatment or to study procedure. For trials in which recurrent event endpoints are of interests, conventional analyses using the proportional intensity model or the count model assume that the data are missing at random, which cannot be tested using the observed data alone. Thus, sensitivity analyses are recommended. We implement the control‐based multiple imputation as sensitivity analyses for the recurrent event data. We model the recurrent event using a piecewise exponential proportional intensity model with frailty and sample the parameters from the posterior distribution. We impute the number of events after dropped out and correct the variance estimation using a bootstrap procedure. We apply the method to an application of sitagliptin study.     

Inequality in Social Insurance Participation and Generosity: Do Firm Characteristics Matter?

Income inequality in China has been much documented and debated. However, one important aspect of income inequality – social insurance inequality – has been largely understudied. We use a large national panel of firm data to examine the possible influence of various firm characteristics on the inequalities in social insurance participation and generosity in the period 2004–07. Our findings reveal substantial ownership sector and regional gaps in social insurance provision by firms, with the private domestic sector and those in the central region lagging behind. Unionized firms, larger firms, and firms with greater market shares also tend to provide better social insurance to their employees. While being an exporting firm is linked with greater social insurance participation and generosity, being a purely exporting firm, however, is associated with reduced social insurance generosity. Lastly, highly educated workers receive substantially better social insurance coverage than their less educated peers. These social insurance inequalities are highly relevant as China pushes forward with establishing a unified social insurance system across urban‐rural boundaries, ownership sectors and industries.     

受教育权行政法上之我见

受教育权经历了自然权利、自由权利、社会权利的演化阶段。自“福利国家”诞生以来,向公民提供教育服务,变成了国家的法定义务。受“穷尽法律救济”原则的约束,行政法更多地承担起了保护公民受教育权的责任。行政法保护有多种方式,但需要完善。     

试论生态文明建设中的政府责任

学习实践科学发展观要求我们在坚持发展时统筹人与自然的和谐关系,党的十七大又明确提出要建设生态文明,但由于我国仍处在工业化的经济发展阶段,无论是人们的价值理念还是经济发展模式,离生态文明发展要求都有一定的距离,现有的生产和消费方式对生态环境依然构成了较大压力。生态文明的实现需要理论的深入研究和实践的不断探索,本期特刊登三篇关于生态文明建设路径的探索文章,分别从价值理念、政府职责和产业调整的角度探讨了生态文明的建设路径问题,以期推动对生态文明内涵和建设实践的理解认识和深入探讨。     

浅谈阳泉市体育产业发展现状及对策

近年来,阳泉市体育产业发展迅速,体育健身娱乐业社会需求增大,体育彩票已成其中的支柱产业,体育竞赛表演市场活跃。但仍存在政策体系、市场体系不健全和不成熟,体育产业市场管理体系不完善,群众体育消费未能有效开发等问题。为此,应采取加强体育产业战略规划的制定,加快体育产业政策和法规的制定,重视社区体育的发展,培育体育消费市场等措施。     

心本德育：高校人本德育的主体性诉求

当前,我国高校“人本德育”理念取代“社会本位德育”理念,已经被教育界充分认可和实施。“人本德育”倡导充分发挥学生的主体性作用,注重满足学生内心需要,关注与学生情感的交流,对高校人才培养起到了极大促进作用。但也应该看到,在人本德育的具体落实中,出现了很多认识上和教育上的简单化、形式化倾向,值得我们深入研究。     

师德建设在营造高校品牌文化中的作用

随着时代的发展,高校品牌文化已经成为竞争的主题。而师德是从古至今都一直受到歌颂的,在现代利益文化的熏陶下,师德显得更加的重要。在高校的竞争中,师德建设已经成为了必不可少的环节。从师德建设的必要性着手,着重分析了师德建设在营造高校品牌文化中的作用。