菲利普斯曲线在中国的有效性研究

从基本的菲利普斯曲线理论出发,提出了新的适应性预期模型,并以此为基础建立附加预期的菲利普斯曲线方程,进而估计出我国近年来的自然失业率水平,由此证明了菲利普斯曲线在我国的有效性,并描述了预期因素对实际通货膨胀水平的影响。最后结合实证分析结果提出解决我国通货膨胀和失业问题的建议,如保证货币政策的连贯性、加强信息披露、解决结构性失业问题等。     

Forecasting Australian subnational age-specific mortality rates

Journal of Population Research - When modeling sub-national mortality rates, it is important to incorporate any possible correlation among sub-populations to improve forecast accuracy. Moreover,...     

A class of partially linear transformation models for recurrent gap times

In this article, we propose a general class of partially linear transformation models for recurrent gap time data, which extends the linear transformation models by incorporating non linear covariate effects and includes the partially linear proportional hazards and the partially linear proportional odds models as special cases. Both global and local estimating equations are developed to estimate the parametric and non parametric covariate effects, and the asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators are established. The finite-sample behavior of the proposed estimators is evaluated through simulation studies, and an application to a clinic study on chronic granulomatous disease is provided.     

老龄人的"颓败"与年轻人的"重生":论羽田圭介的《颓败与重生》

随着日本人口老龄化的加速,老年人的护理日渐成为社会的一个关注点。羽田圭介的《颓败与重生》就是以老人护理以及由此引起的家庭内部纠葛为题材的小说。小说标题中的"颓败"体现在以主人公的外祖父为代表的老年人身体的衰老、病痛的侵袭以及所面临的尴尬的社会与家庭处境。而"重生"则表现在主人公对事业的追求、自我肉体的改造、帮助外祖父实现"尊严死"等方面。这部作品表征了日本社会所面临的老龄化的严峻形势及社会现实。     

A qualitative study on participants’ perceptions of child development accounts in Korea

ABSTRACT

In 2007, Korea implemented Child Development Accounts (CDAs) for institutionalised children in child welfare systems. Since then, the target group and a matching cap of CDAs in Korea have evolved. The target group expanded to include poor children receiving welfare, whereas the matching cap increased from KRW 30,000 (US$26.53) to KRW 40,000 (US$35.38), which is matched at a 1:1 rate. Despite the expansion, there is little empirical evidence examining the extent to which CDAs have influenced the life of participants. Using a content analysis method with a sample (N = 22), this study examines how CDAs have changed children’s mindsets, saving habits, education, future planning and sponsorship. The findings suggest that CDAs have multiple positive influences on children. This study concludes with policy implications for the inclusive and progressive development of CDAs in Korea.     

基于fused惩罚的稀疏主成分分析

本文旨在研究基于fused惩罚的稀疏主成分分析方法，以适用于相邻变量之间高度相关甚至完全相等的数据情形。首先，从回归分析角度出发，提出一种求解稀疏主成分的简便思路，给出一种广义的稀疏主成分模型—— GSPCA模型及其求解算法，并证明在惩罚函数取1-范数时，该模型与现有的稀疏主成分模型——SPC模型的求解结果一致。其次，本文提出将fused惩罚与主成分分析相结合，得到一种fused稀疏主成分分析方法，并从惩罚性矩阵分解和回归分析两个角度，给出两种模型形式。在理论上证明了两种模型的求解结果是一致的，故将其统称为FSPCA模型。模拟实验显示，FSPCA模型在处理相邻变量之间高度相关甚至完全相等的数据集上的表现良好。最后，将FSPCA模型应用于手写数字识别，发现与SPC模型相比，FSPCA模型所提取的主成分具备更好的解释性，这使得该模型更具实用价值。     

Strong convergence rates of probabilistic integrators for ordinary differential equations

Probabilistic integration of a continuous dynamical system is a way of systematically introducing discretisation error, at scales no larger than errors introduced by standard numerical discretisation, in order to enable thorough exploration of possible responses of the system to inputs. It is thus a potentially useful approach in a number of applications such as forward uncertainty quantification, inverse problems, and data assimilation. We extend the convergence analysis of probabilistic integrators for deterministic ordinary differential equations, as proposed by Conrad et al. (Stat Comput 27(4):1065–1082, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11222-016-9671-0), to establish mean-square convergence in the uniform norm on discrete- or continuous-time solutions under relaxed regularity assumptions on the driving vector fields and their induced flows. Specifically, we show that randomised high-order integrators for globally Lipschitz flows and randomised Euler integrators for dissipative vector fields with polynomially bounded local Lipschitz constants all have the same mean-square convergence rate as their deterministic counterparts, provided that the variance of the integration noise is not of higher order than the corresponding deterministic integrator. These and similar results are proven for probabilistic integrators where the random perturbations may be state-dependent, non-Gaussian, or non-centred random variables.

     

关于增强高职教师执教能力的研究

教师执教能力是教师业务素质的核心问题,是保证教学质量的重要一环。在全面推进素质教育的今天,教师执教能力提高势在必行。镇江市高等专科学校通过开展课堂教学质量月、说课、优秀教师示范课活动和学生评教,来增强教师执教能力。     

基于目的论的汉英翻译中的省略法

省略虽然是常见的翻译方法,但是在翻译实践中,译者——特别是翻译学习者——往往会低估省略法的效用,甚至尽量避而不用。为了帮助译者合理使用省略法,将选择省略法在汉英翻译中的典型实例,从德国功能理论学派的目的论角度对其加以深入分析,概括省略法应用的多重目的——或是为了使译文更符合英语文化背景和英语表达习惯、或是为了更好地满足英语读者的期待和双方交际的需求。借此分析,帮助译者或翻译初学者获取"合适的"译文;以此为译者寻求省略应用的理论支持。