A method for choosing the smoothing parameter in a semi-parametric model for detecting change-points in blood flow

In a smoothing spline model with unknown change-points, the choice of the smoothing parameter strongly influences the estimation of the change-point locations and the function at the change-points. In a tumor biology example, where change-points in blood flow in response to treatment were of interest, choosing the smoothing parameter based on minimizing generalized cross-validation (GCV) gave unsatisfactory estimates of the change-points. We propose a new method, aGCV, that re-weights the residual sum of squares and generalized degrees of freedom terms from GCV. The weight is chosen to maximize the decrease in the generalized degrees of freedom as a function of the weight value, while simultaneously minimizing aGCV as a function of the smoothing parameter and the change-points. Compared with GCV, simulation studies suggest that the aGCV method yields improved estimates of the change-point and the value of the function at the change-point.     

Re-Defining the Who,When, and Where of Mentoring for Professional Statisticians

Organizations tailor their mentoring strategies to accommodate internal resources and preferences, producing different approaches in academic, government, and corporate environments. Across these settings, three common barriers impede effective mentoring of statisticians: overspecialization, time constraints, and geographic dispersion. The authors share mentoring strategies that have emerged at their organization, Mathematica Policy Research, to overcome these obstacles. Practices include creating a methodology working group to unite researchers with diverse backgrounds, integrating mentoring into existing workflows, and harnessing modern technological infrastructure to facilitate virtual mentoring. Although these strategies emerged within a specific professional context, they suggest opportunities for statisticians to expand the channels through which mentorship can occur.     

Uniformly strong consistency and Berry-Esseen bound of frequency polygons for α-mixing samples

In this article, the frequency polygon investigated by Scott is studied as a nonparametric estimator for α-mixing samples. By some known exponent and moment inequalities, we obtain the uniformly strong consistency and Berry-Esseen bound of the estimator. The present results relax the relevant conditions used by Carbon et al. Furthermore, the convergence rate of the uniformly asymptotic normality is derived, which is O(n^{? 1/11}) under the given conditions.     

西方平等理论从古典自然法学到新自然法学的嬗变

平等是一个非常复杂和抽象的范畴,西方法学对平等理论的热爱和追逐从未停止过,从古典自然法学追求的抽象的平等的政治理想,到新自然法学对平等的制度设计的现实关怀,平等理论随着自然法学的发展实现了其自身的嬗变,这种改变也是时代的要求、历史的必然。     

吉林省手风琴音乐创作的调查研究

目前,吉林省手风琴音乐的创作现状并不乐观,进行手风琴音乐创作的老艺人们大都年逾古稀,很多都已离世,只能从老艺人留下的历史资料或艺人们的口述中探寻当年吉林省手风琴音乐创作情况的蛛丝马迹.艺人们从事手风琴音乐创作的出发点除教学需要和个人兴趣之外,重要的一点是传承民族文化.要改善吉林省手风琴音乐创作的现状,一是要思考手风琴表演形式的创新,二是音乐创作素材的挖掘与思考.     

论和平发展战略对台湾政党政治的影响

随着两岸关系和平发展的持续推进,这项战略已经产生了强大的溢出效应。影响所及,两岸关系结构、台湾民众对两岸关系的认知结构以及台湾岛内话语结构等都发生了根本性变化,这种局面对岛内政党政治的基本生态和未来发展趋势产生了较大影响,两个主要政党都针对环境的变化进行了一定的调整,以求适应台海局势的结构性变化,谋求未来更多的发展空间。     

How do I get my way? A meta-analytic review of research on influence tactics

Despite considerable research investigating the role of influence tactics on work-related outcomes in organizations, consensus on the effectiveness of influence tactics has been elusive. Specifically, there is a lack of integration concerning the relationships between proactive influence tactics and their outcomes. We investigate the effectiveness of 11 influence tactics from a comprehensive perspective using meta-analytic techniques. In particular, the current study focuses on relationships between each of the 11 influence tactics (i.e., rational persuasion, exchange, inspirational appeal, legitimating, apprising, pressure, collaboration, ingratiation, consultation, personal appeals, and coalition) and task- and relations-oriented outcomes. In addition, we investigate the moderating effects of the direction of influence tactics, measurement of influence tactics, singular influence tactic (versus use of a combination of influence tactics), independence of data sources, and study setting involved in the study. Regardless of task- and relations-oriented outcomes, based on 49 independent samples (N = 8987), our results show positive relationships between outcomes and rational persuasion, inspirational appeal, apprising, collaboration, ingratiation, consultation, and a negative relationship between pressure and outcomes. Rational persuasion is the only tactic which held stable positive relationships with both categories of outcomes regardless of moderating factors. Implications and directions for future research in the area of influence tactics are discussed.     

A robust and efficient estimation method for nonparametric models with jump points

Nonparametric models with jump points have been considered by many researchers. However, most existing methods based on least squares or likelihood are sensitive when there are outliers or the error distribution is heavy tailed. In this article, a local piecewise-modal method is proposed to estimate the regression function with jump points in nonparametric models, and a piecewise-modal EM algorithm is introduced to estimate the proposed estimator. Under some regular conditions, the large-sample theory is established for the proposed estimators. Several simulations are presented to evaluate the performances of the proposed method, which shows that the proposed estimator is more efficient than the local piecewise-polynomial regression estimator in the presence of outliers or heavy tail error distribution. What is more, the proposed procedure is asymptotically equivalent to the local piecewise-polynomial regression estimator under the assumption that the error distribution is a Gaussian distribution. The proposed method is further illustrated via the sea-level pressures.     

基于“重要性-影响力”框架的非首都功能疏解路径研究——以北京市动物园服装批发市场搬迁为例

利益相关者分析法是分析复杂管理问题的重要方法,广泛应用于企业管理、项目管理及公共政策领域。随着北京市非首都核心功能的疏解思路的提出,作为低端产业代表的动物园批发市场的外迁势在必行。运用"重要性-影响力"利益相关者分析框架,对动批搬迁政策中涉及的利益相关者进行界定,分别分析其利益诉求并进行合理划分,依据各利益相关者对政策的重要性程度和影响力大小以及各相关者之间的利益冲突分别制定解决对策,同时将各种外部阻力纳入考虑范围,为北京市动物园批发市场搬迁提出可行路径,以期为其他类似公共政策制定问题提供参考。     

Comparison of leadership styles in Confucian Asian countries

The purpose of this study was to examine the overall impact of four leadership styles (charismatic, directive, participative, and supportive) in four Confucian Asian countries, China, Japan, South Korea, and Singapore, by reviewing recent studies conducted in those countries. By reviewing 38 studies selected from 430 studies published between 2005 and 2016, we identify the impact of the four leadership styles in the four Asian countries. We start with the research question and purpose, and then propose criteria for selecting the relevant recent studies followed by a review of cultural heritage and its influence on leadership in the four Asian countries. We summarize and review the studies and, finally, discuss the theoretical and practical contributions of this study.