Forecasting Australian subnational age-specific mortality rates

Journal of Population Research - When modeling sub-national mortality rates, it is important to incorporate any possible correlation among sub-populations to improve forecast accuracy. Moreover,...     

A class of partially linear transformation models for recurrent gap times

In this article, we propose a general class of partially linear transformation models for recurrent gap time data, which extends the linear transformation models by incorporating non linear covariate effects and includes the partially linear proportional hazards and the partially linear proportional odds models as special cases. Both global and local estimating equations are developed to estimate the parametric and non parametric covariate effects, and the asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators are established. The finite-sample behavior of the proposed estimators is evaluated through simulation studies, and an application to a clinic study on chronic granulomatous disease is provided.     

A qualitative study on participants’ perceptions of child development accounts in Korea

ABSTRACT

In 2007, Korea implemented Child Development Accounts (CDAs) for institutionalised children in child welfare systems. Since then, the target group and a matching cap of CDAs in Korea have evolved. The target group expanded to include poor children receiving welfare, whereas the matching cap increased from KRW 30,000 (US$26.53) to KRW 40,000 (US$35.38), which is matched at a 1:1 rate. Despite the expansion, there is little empirical evidence examining the extent to which CDAs have influenced the life of participants. Using a content analysis method with a sample (N = 22), this study examines how CDAs have changed children’s mindsets, saving habits, education, future planning and sponsorship. The findings suggest that CDAs have multiple positive influences on children. This study concludes with policy implications for the inclusive and progressive development of CDAs in Korea.     

Strong convergence rates of probabilistic integrators for ordinary differential equations

Probabilistic integration of a continuous dynamical system is a way of systematically introducing discretisation error, at scales no larger than errors introduced by standard numerical discretisation, in order to enable thorough exploration of possible responses of the system to inputs. It is thus a potentially useful approach in a number of applications such as forward uncertainty quantification, inverse problems, and data assimilation. We extend the convergence analysis of probabilistic integrators for deterministic ordinary differential equations, as proposed by Conrad et al. (Stat Comput 27(4):1065–1082, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11222-016-9671-0), to establish mean-square convergence in the uniform norm on discrete- or continuous-time solutions under relaxed regularity assumptions on the driving vector fields and their induced flows. Specifically, we show that randomised high-order integrators for globally Lipschitz flows and randomised Euler integrators for dissipative vector fields with polynomially bounded local Lipschitz constants all have the same mean-square convergence rate as their deterministic counterparts, provided that the variance of the integration noise is not of higher order than the corresponding deterministic integrator. These and similar results are proven for probabilistic integrators where the random perturbations may be state-dependent, non-Gaussian, or non-centred random variables.

     

金庸小说里的辽东元素（下）——从阿骨打到胡一刀,都有那股劲

金庸的武侠世界中,常有帝王将相出场.他的小说多以王朝兴替乾坤倒转之际为背景,也是金大侠的好发政论使然.他曾自我剖白称,《笑傲江湖》和《鹿鼎记》写的就是政治.《鸳鸯刀》看似短篇戏谑之作,其实也有金氏的政治图解掩映其中.     

Assessing Participation and Effectiveness of the Peer-Led Approach in Youth Sexual Health Education: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis in More Developed Countries

Sexual health education for young people is crucial not only for development of norms but also for protection against vulnerabilities during this stage in life. Although several systematic reviews have examined the effectiveness of peer-led sex education, none have focused on the extent of peer participation. The purpose of this review was to evaluate peer-led sexual health education interventions in more developed countries (MDCs). Electronic and manual searches across five social science, education, and medical databases were conducted. Fifteen articles were selected in total. Most (10 of 15) studies gave low or no responsibility to peers. The majority of articles found improvements in sexual health knowledge (13 of 14) and attitudes (11 of 15) at postintervention stages. Two studies showed improved self-efficacy, and three showed behavioral changes. A preliminary synthesis of effectiveness and level of participation was done. Meta-analysis revealed a large effect on knowledge change (Hedges’ g = 0.84, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.43 to 1.25) and a medium effect on attitude change (Hedges’ g = 0.49, 95% CI: 0.19 to 0.80). Peer-led interventions could be a powerful tool. This review shows that this approach is effective in changing knowledge and attitudes but not behaviors. Further research and action are needed to understand optimal implementation.     

移情入“新”梦——中国电影与新生代观众的关系探研

时值"中国电影新力量"初成之际,作为"新力量"重要组成部分的新生代观众群体对这股发展大潮是不可或缺的。新生代观众以80、90后为主,这一代是娱乐化、网络化与个性化的一代。当下中国电影为让新生代观众能够透过影像移情入梦,便依据新生代观众独有的新特性,在复制真实、隐藏真实和制造仿像三个阶段中,充分运用各种艺术与技术的手段来满足他们的观影心理诉求,以保证电影票房的持续增长。     

诗歌押韵与起承转合

起承转合,关于诗文的意蕴结构或曰章法的这一术语,也可以用来概括诗歌的押韵规律.在诗歌的各种韵式中,起承转合这一韵式有着独特的优势,至今葆有顽强的生命力.     

东南亚华裔学生中文姓名用字研究

姓名是语言学中一个值得关注的课题,它是一种社会现象,也是一种语言现象,有丰富的内涵。文章通过语料样本对东南亚华裔学生的中文姓名用字进行统计研究,分析用字特点,对华裔学生中文取名方法和对待相关问题应有态度进行探讨。