浅析《爱弥儿》中的青年社会交往观

卢梭在《爱弥儿》一书中,通过对青年爱弥儿的道德教育的论述表达了他关于青年社会交往的观点。《爱弥儿》中的青年交往观主要包括青年社会交往的必要性、青年社会交往的基本原则以及青年在社会交往中的具体行为表现等内容。卢梭的青年社会交往观以自然主义教育思想为基础,虽然带有一定的空想性,且主要针对的是18世纪的法国社会现实,有其时代局限性,但对于现代青年社会交往仍具有重要启示意义,特别是青年参与社会交往必须遵循一定的原则,青年社会交往应讲求一定的艺术和方法等观点值得加以借鉴和参考,使其对现代青年社会交往发挥指导作用。     

The Role of Family SES and Language Background in Shaping the Well-Being of Children of Asian Origin in the Context of School Mobility

Using a sample of children of Asian origin from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study–Kindergarten Cohort (N ≈ 1,480), this study examines the relationship between school mobility and children’s well-being trajectories from kindergarten to fifth grade, paying particular attention to whether such relationships differ by child language status and family socioeconomic status. Considering a rich set of characteristics including family and school environments, the growth curve analyses indicate that children who had ever changed schools during these years performed worse on their reading and math scores, as well as being reported by teachers to have worse internalizing behaviors. This was only true when these children were from low-SES families or when their language background was predominately non-English-speaking. In contrast, children who changed schools at least once performed as well as, if not better than, their peers if they were from high-SES families or if they had a bilingual background (speaking both English and a non-English language). This study explores both the risk and the protective factors that help explain the well-being trajectories of children of Asian origins.     

论价值语言

语言有描述语言和价值语言之分。虽然在纯粹的描述语言和纯粹的价值语言之间也存在兼有描述和价值二重性的混合语言,但这并不能作为没有描述语言与价值语言之分野的依据。价值语言有两种功能,一是评价对象,一是指令人。价值语言的类型有评价语言与指令语言、自然价值语言与人工价值语言、肯定性价值语言与否定性价值语言、原生价值语言与派生价值语言之分。价值语言内部还存在四个级别的差异,它们相互之间存在统摄与被统摄的关系,并由此形成一个有内在逻辑关联的有机系统。价值语言在性质上似乎与以真假为值的传统语言逻辑不相容,但实际上,价值语言也一直遵守的是传统语言逻辑。如果我们将传统语言逻辑所注重的真假值改为对错值,那么,传统逻辑就既可在实际上与价值语言相容,也可在名义上和性质上与价值语言相容。     

当务之急:建构体系还是建构知识?

在中国大陆,中国当代史的研究近些年渐渐趋热.除了当代史论文的大量发表和若干专著、回忆录、史料集的出版外,连续性当代史学术出版物的问世,多次国内和国际性研讨会的召开,一些高校历史学专业开设当代史课程,设立当代史研究机构,都显示出其进展的势头和潜力. 当代史距今最近且仍在延伸,许多人是这段历史完整或部分的亲历者和见证者,当下的许多问题又都与这段历史有割不断的关联,受到学界和社会的关注很自然.但是,看上去"热闹"的当代史,目前还附属于中国近现代史学科,是近现代史学科的一个分支,尚未从近现代史范畴中独立出来.     

基于全球商品流量表的中国大陆贸易影响力测算

文章利用国际货币基金组织(IMF)公布的各国(地区)进出口数据,编制了2015年全球商品流量表(G-CFM),描绘了国家(地区)间商品贸易网络关系,采用网络分析的方法对全球商品贸易格局进行了分析,发现了在全球商品贸易中以美、中、德为中心,世界各国紧密交织的网络特征,最后用投入产出方法分析了中国大陆的贸易影响力,测算了中国大陆进出口贸易对不同国家(地区)以及对全球的影响.     

经济景气指标与实际GDP增长率的混频预测

文章通过构建月度景气指标与季度实际GDP增长率之间的混频动态向量自回归模型,并采用期望最大值算法和卡尔曼滤波来实现混频数据和缺失数据的估计和迭代预测.大量月度景气指标的MFVAR模型的伪实时数据的多步滚动迭代样本外预测结果表明:虽然不同类别的月度景气变量在不同预测期的预测结果存在一定的差异,但实时预报、短期预测,以及组合预测结果均表明混频动态向量自回归预测模型对我国季度实际GDP增长率的实时预报和短期预测具有精确性、有效性与适用性.     

一类与洛伦兹曲线相关的不平等测度指数

文章对一类与洛伦茨曲线相关的不平等测度指数进行了较为系统的回顾与探讨,这些指数既包括基尼系数和Schutz指数等传统的不平等测度指数,也包括Bonferroni指数、De Vergottni指数和Zenga指数等国际上应用广泛但国内少见的不平等指数,并揭示了这些指数间的相互关联,总结了这些指数所满足的性质特征.     

A Bayesian sequential design with binary outcome

Several researchers have proposed solutions to control type I error rate in sequential designs. The use of Bayesian sequential design becomes more common; however, these designs are subject to inflation of the type I error rate. We propose a Bayesian sequential design for binary outcome using an alpha‐spending function to control the overall type I error rate. Algorithms are presented for calculating critical values and power for the proposed designs. We also propose a new stopping rule for futility. Sensitivity analysis is implemented for assessing the effects of varying the parameters of the prior distribution and maximum total sample size on critical values. Alpha‐spending functions are compared using power and actual sample size through simulations. Further simulations show that, when total sample size is fixed, the proposed design has greater power than the traditional Bayesian sequential design, which sets equal stopping bounds at all interim analyses. We also find that the proposed design with the new stopping for futility rule results in greater power and can stop earlier with a smaller actual sample size, compared with the traditional stopping rule for futility when all other conditions are held constant. Finally, we apply the proposed method to a real data set and compare the results with traditional designs.     

人口老龄化阶段我国农村养老保险的机制创新

人口老龄化是当前全球人口结构发展的基本趋势。面对人口老龄化带来的各种挑战,加快建立和完善我国农特养老保险制度是一项紧迫的任务。廓清我国农村养老保险制度的困境及其成因与变迁,分析其中存在的问题,是推进农村养老保险制度改革的重要内容。从我国农村人口老龄化的趋势和农村经济发展的实际出发,通过机制创新,建立农村养老保险制度创新机制,是完善农村养老保险的关键所在。     

1910年奉天新民府水灾与救济——以《盛京时报》为中心的考察

1910年奉天新民府发生严重水灾,灾民遍地,损失惨重.水灾发生后,官府及社会各界积极开展各种形式的劝募及赈济活动.官方稳妥地进行灾后救济并处理好善后事宜,安靖地方救济工作较为成功.但由于水灾过后未能根治柳河,为以后水患的发生埋下了隐患.