当代中国书法审丑和审美的两极困境及超越之路

文章分析了历史上“丑书”盛行的原因,并将当代“丑书”作品与之进行比较,指出当代“丑书”作品缺乏思想性,仅仅是为了突破传统审美标准,冲击世人视觉感官而为之的作品,会给中国书法带来一定的消极影响和发展危机;当代中国书法回归传统古典审美的另一极,面临如何继承和创新的发展困境。审视当代中国书法审丑和审美的两极困境,应该从中国书法发展的历史本身寻找出某种融合和突破的有效途径。     

多次犯的刑法规制、理论发展与生成机理探析

我国刑法中规定的多次犯,是指行为人在一定期限内因多次实施同种性质的违法行为被行政主管机关给予二次以上行政处罚后,又实施该种违法行为构成的犯罪。目前我国的刑法中有十多个罪名设定了多次犯的构罪模式,以司法解释为主,刑法学界对这一现象的认识尚未统一、研究也相对较少。多次犯的出现是我国社会经济发展和刑事司法实践的产物,新中国第一部刑法典——1979 年《中华人民共和国刑法》中并无多次犯的明确规定,但此后的若干单行刑法及司法解释中开始出现此类型犯罪规定,1997 年《刑法》吸纳了前述单行刑法与司法解释的相关内容,之后的多次刑法修正案及司法解释使得多次犯逐渐成熟与定型。在我国刑法中,多次犯因其具有严重侵害法益的社会危害性、我国在社会转型期防控犯罪的需要、固有刑法打击此类犯罪难度较大等因素而成为区别于结果犯、危险犯等犯罪类型的新的犯罪类型。     

多层贝叶斯模型在消费者偏好分析中的应用研究——基于手机市场数据

基于手机市场的调研数据,构建了多层贝叶斯模型,并将其与传统哑变量回归模型进行比较,得出前者比后者具有更好的模型拟合能力和预测能力的结论。利用有人口特征变量的多层贝叶斯随机效应模型来完成对所有未知参数的估计,从个体内行为和个体间行为两个层面对消费者的偏好行为进行全面分析,结果发现该模型可以很好解释消费者的总体偏好及其偏好差异性。     

Adaptive Elastic Net for Generalized Methods of Moments

Model selection and estimation are crucial parts of econometrics. This article introduces a new technique that can simultaneously estimate and select the model in generalized method of moments (GMM) context. The GMM is particularly powerful for analyzing complex datasets such as longitudinal and panel data, and it has wide applications in econometrics. This article extends the least squares based adaptive elastic net estimator by Zou and Zhang to nonlinear equation systems with endogenous variables. The extension is not trivial and involves a new proof technique due to estimators’ lack of closed-form solutions. Compared to Bridge-GMM by Caner, we allow for the number of parameters to diverge to infinity as well as collinearity among a large number of variables; also, the redundant parameters are set to zero via a data-dependent technique. This method has the oracle property, meaning that we can estimate nonzero parameters with their standard limit and the redundant parameters are dropped from the equations simultaneously. Numerical examples are used to illustrate the performance of the new method.     

地方政府行为与住房市场健康发展研究——一个研究框架

住房市场是一个分散、区域性分割的市场,中央政府无法直接调节,对住房市场的微观调控是地方政府的职责之一。地方政府在住房市场的职责贯穿从住房生产到房屋消费的各个环节,涉及确定需求、土地供应、存量管理、基础设施建设等众多领域,有时甚至直接给特定群体提供住房。以地方政府行为视角建立一个分析框架,重点剖析地方政府在住房市场中的职责,住房市场利益相关者及管制创新,住房健康发展的内在机制,中央—地方在住房市场既分工又协作的二级管理模式有效运转的约束条件,地方住房战略制定及其有效性等问题,有助于促进我国住房市场的健康发展。     

林纾的西方观与妇女观

作为新旧交替时代的知识分子,林纾有一个开明的西方观.他渴望借西方之用来修正中国的传统,而不是完全地摧毁它,这一点相对于后来的五四知识分子尤显重要.他的兴女学但限女权的主张,在当时的语境下也具有相当的现实性.     

Estimation Mean Change-Point in ARCH Models with Heavy-Tailed Innovations

The quest of the mean change-point in ARCH models with innovations in the domain of attraction of a κ-stable law appears to still be ongoing. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the residuals CUSUM of squares test (RCUSQ) statistic and find it depends on the stable index κ which is often typically unknown and difficult to estimate. Therefore, the subsampling method is proposed to detect changes without estimating κ. The tests are easy to use and are found to perform well in a Monte Carlo experiment.     

Bayesian Inference of Odds Ratios in Misclassified Binary Data with a Validation Substudy

We propose a fully Bayesian model with a non-informative prior for analyzing misclassified binary data with a validation substudy. In addition, we derive a closed-form algorithm for drawing all parameters from the posterior distribution and making statistical inference on odds ratios. Our algorithm draws each parameter from a beta distribution, avoids the specification of initial values, and does not have convergence issues. We apply the algorithm to a data set and compare the results with those obtained by other methods. Finally, the performance of our algorithm is assessed using simulation studies.     

Developments in Maximum Likelihood Unit Root Tests

The exact maximum likelihood estimate provides a test statistic for the unit root test that is more powerful than the usual least-squares approach. In this article, a new derivation is given for the asymptotic distribution of this test statistic that is simpler and more direct than the previous method. The response surface regression method is used to obtain a fast algorithm that computes accurate finite-sample critical values. This algorithm is available in the R package mleur that is available on CRAN. The empirical power of the new test is shown to be much better than the usual test not only in the normal case but also for innovations generated from an infinite variance stable distribution as well as for innovations generated from a GARCH(1,1) process.     

超宽单索面组合梁斜拉桥桥面板横向应力研究

组合梁斜拉桥桥面板的截面宽度越来越宽,横向空间效应越来越显著,利用简化计算的方法往往不能正确地分析出横向应力的分布特点,对于宽跨比较大的主梁来说,应该采用空间有限元的方法分析桥面板的横向应力,确保结构设计的安全。运用这种方法,分析桥面板的横向应力分布,得出横向应力分布规律,希望对相关工程具有工程实际指导意义。