Goodness‐of‐fit methods for matched case‐control studies

The authors propose graphical and numerical methods for checking the adequacy of the logistic regression model for matched case‐control data. Their approach is based on the cumulative sum of residuals over the covariate or linear predictor. Under the assumed model, the cumulative residual process converges weakly to a centered Gaussian limit whose distribution can be approximated via computer simulation. The observed cumulative residual pattern can then be compared both visually and analytically to a certain number of simulated realizations of the approximate limiting process under the null hypothesis. The proposed techniques allow one to check the functional form of each covariate, the logistic link function as well as the overall model adequacy. The authors assess the performance of the proposed methods through simulation studies and illustrate them using data from a cardiovascular study.     

国家为未成年人生存权“买单”

青少年是未来社会的主人,今天青少年成长中打下的烙印,将直接影响到未来社会的和谐。生存权是未成年人权利中最基础的权利,生存权如果不能保障,其他的权利都是空话。成长中因生存的艰难,过早地感受人间的冷暖,直接影响其心理的成长,而这心理的积淀又无不影响着未来社会的安全、风气和人情。国家为未成年人生存权“买单”,不但对保护青少年成长中的身心健康有着极其重要的意义,也将直接促进社会长久的和谐。     

武汉市关山地区“城中村”改造问题调查报告

一、调查背景与目的 随着改革开放的深入,城市经济得以迅速发展,城市的大规模建设,也使城市面貌得以迅速改观.     

Bootstrap Estimation of Benchmark Doses and Confidence Limits with Clustered Quantal Data

The benchmark dose (BMD) is an exposure level that would induce a small risk increase (BMR level) above the background. The BMD approach to deriving a reference dose for risk assessment of noncancer effects is advantageous in that the estimate of BMD is not restricted to experimental doses and utilizes most available dose-response information. To quantify statistical uncertainty of a BMD estimate, we often calculate and report its lower confidence limit (i.e., BMDL), and may even consider it as a more conservative alternative to BMD itself. Computation of BMDL may involve normal confidence limits to BMD in conjunction with the delta method. Therefore, factors, such as small sample size and nonlinearity in model parameters, can affect the performance of the delta method BMDL, and alternative methods are useful. In this article, we propose a bootstrap method to estimate BMDL utilizing a scheme that consists of a resampling of residuals after model fitting and a one-step formula for parameter estimation. We illustrate the method with clustered binary data from developmental toxicity experiments. Our analysis shows that with moderately elevated dose-response data, the distribution of BMD estimator tends to be left-skewed and bootstrap BMDL s are smaller than the delta method BMDL s on average, hence quantifying risk more conservatively. Statistically, the bootstrap BMDL quantifies the uncertainty of the true BMD more honestly than the delta method BMDL as its coverage probability is closer to the nominal level than that of delta method BMDL. We find that BMD and BMDL estimates are generally insensitive to model choices provided that the models fit the data comparably well near the region of BMD. Our analysis also suggests that, in the presence of a significant and moderately strong dose-response relationship, the developmental toxicity experiments under the standard protocol support dose-response assessment at 5% BMR for BMD and 95% confidence level for BMDL.     

国有无形资产流失问题探讨

文章根据经济全球化和知识化的客观要求,在分析国有无形资产流失的特征、途径的基础上,从强化观念、建立机构、完善制度、制定战略、营造环境等方面提出了防止国有无形资产流失的一系列对策。     

大学生创业创造出色人生

在沈阳,晚上5点多,这是多数上班族放松心情下班回家,或与朋友约会闲谈欢聚的时候。而在铁西区兴顺街上一家名叫“小百灵乐府”的地方,邹为和他的同事却刚刚进入一天中最忙碌的时候。透过窗户可以看见教室中学生、老师伴随着跳动的音符,开始了快乐的教学时光。“小百灵乐府”兴顺街少儿音乐培训中心已经是邹为自主创业两年来的第三家分校,2006年7月份正式成立。音乐让人生出色2004年7月,邹为即将告别四年的大学生活,真正步入社会。是留在沈阳音乐学院南校区任教还是走自主创业之路,那时的他要为自己的发展方向做出选择。邹为是一个想法多且敢…     

《蒙特利尔公约》下的赔偿责任体系及相关问题

1999年《蒙特利尔公约》随着美国作为第30个国家的加入,已于2003年11月4日正式生效。经我国人民代表大会批准,公约于2005年7月31日对我国生效。本文通过对《蒙特利尔公约》与其之前的公约(华沙公约体系和IATA责任体制)进行比较,阐述了公约的重要意义及重要新增内容,探讨了公约相关问题。     

腊八趣话

“腊八”,即农历的十二月初八日。它是中国古代极为重要的传统节日。从时序上看,过了腊八,春节就指日可待了。农历的十二月称“腊月”。“腊与“猎”字通。其原始义为:人们在用猎获的牺牲举行祭礼,驱邪避灾,纳福迎祥。《礼记·效特牲》中有:“伊耆氏始为蜡。蜡也者,索也岁十二月,合聚万物而索飨之也的记载。但腊月初八日作为一个节日,是从南北朝才渐至成型的。戎昱有一首《桂州腊夜》的诗:坐到三更尽,归仍万里赊。雪声偏傍竹,寒梦不离家。晓角分残漏,孤灯落碎花。二年随骠骑,辛苦向天涯。这是作者腊夜的怀乡之作。羁之思,人生况味,溢于其间…     

A survey of the family planning work done in Dongguan County

The total fertility rate of women of childbearing age of Dongguan County in China has been decreasing gradually from 5.9 during the period following the liberation in 1949 to 2.05 in 1982. In order to encourage young couples to implement the policy of family planning consciously, the people's government of Dongguan county decided in July 1980 that all cadres and employees in county towns who received 1-child certificates would be exempted from house rent of 45 square meters from the time they get their certificates and would be allocated a living space of a 2-children family until their children reached age 16. It also stipulated that every couple could enjoy 1 month's holiday every year for 3 years and during the holiday, their salary, bonus and rate of attendance would not be affected. Because women bear less children today, they are relieved from heavy household chores and become the main working force in collective production. As a result, the development of town-run enterprises was stimulated and the total industrial output value of these enterprises increased. The average monthly salary of each female worker is about 100 yuan. In 1984, the average income per capita of the country rose to 649.2 yuan. The implementation of family planning work has eased the tension in the education field. Previously, because of the large number of school-age children in rural areas, teachers had to teach 2 classes. In the past 4 years, great emphasis was laid on intellectual investment. During this period, 2351 schools were built and several fundraising projects were implemented. Since 1981, more than 200 new running water projects were built, and new public services have been developed, including old age homes.