Robust confidence interval for a residual standard deviation

The residual standard deviation of a general linear model provides information about predictive accuracy that is not revealed by the multiple correlation or regression coefficients. The classic confidence interval for a residual standard deviation is hypersensitive to minor violations of the normality assumption and its robustness does not improve with increasing sample size. An approximate confidence interval for the residual standard deviation is proposed and shown to be robust to moderate violations of the normality assumption with robustness to extreme non-normality that improves with increasing sample size.     

Assessing accuracy of a continuous screening test in the presence of verification bias

Summary.  In studies to assess the accuracy of a screening test, often definitive disease assessment is too invasive or expensive to be ascertained on all the study subjects. Although it may be more ethical or cost effective to ascertain the true disease status with a higher rate in study subjects where the screening test or additional information is suggestive of disease, estimates of accuracy can be biased in a study with such a design. This bias is known as verification bias. Verification bias correction methods that accommodate screening tests with binary or ordinal responses have been developed; however, no verification bias correction methods exist for tests with continuous results. We propose and compare imputation and reweighting bias-corrected estimators of true and false positive rates, receiver operating characteristic curves and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for continuous tests. Distribution theory and simulation studies are used to compare the proposed estimators with respect to bias, relative efficiency and robustness to model misspecification. The bias correction estimators proposed are applied to data from a study of screening tests for neonatal hearing loss.     

It takes two to tango: the integration of people with disabilities into society

The concept of integration is not well defined. It not known how people with disabilities experience integration. In this study qualitative methods were used. The aim of the article is to define a model of successful integration based on the perspectives of people with disabilities and people within their social environment. Integration consists of five elements: functioning ordinarily without receiving special attention, mixing with others that are not disabled, taking part in society, trying to realize one’s potential and directing one’s own life. Integration is obtained through a process of interaction between a person with a disability and society. This process is influenced by personal, societal and support factors. The individual with a disability and society have a mutual responsibility with respect to integration.     

Residual analysis for spatial point processes (with discussion)

Summary.  We define residuals for point process models fitted to spatial point pattern data, and we propose diagnostic plots based on them. The residuals apply to any point process model that has a conditional intensity; the model may exhibit spatial heterogeneity, interpoint interaction and dependence on spatial covariates. Some existing ad hoc methods for model checking (quadrat counts, scan statistic, kernel smoothed intensity and Berman's diagnostic) are recovered as special cases. Diagnostic tools are developed systematically, by using an analogy between our spatial residuals and the usual residuals for (non-spatial) generalized linear models. The conditional intensity λ plays the role of the mean response. This makes it possible to adapt existing knowledge about model validation for generalized linear models to the spatial point process context, giving recommendations for diagnostic plots. A plot of smoothed residuals against spatial location, or against a spatial covariate, is effective in diagnosing spatial trend or co-variate effects. Q – Q -plots of the residuals are effective in diagnosing interpoint interaction.     

价值观的形成规律与当代青年价值观现状

价值观的形成有其自身的规律 ,并受到社会因素和个体内在因素的影响。当代青年正处在我国改革开放进一步深化和社会主义市场经济体制逐步确立及自我意识发展和自我需要扩大的时期 ,因此 ,他们的价值观必然打着当今时代的烙印 ,具有开放性、先锋化、情绪性等特点 ,他们追求高效、公正、互利 ,追求求职与成才相结合 ,但同时 ,其自身的身心失范问题也日趋严重。     

The organizational formation of atmospheric science

In this paper, the history of atmospheric science is traced, from the earliest discussions from meteorologists, and the first meetings to describe this new research area. The development of atmospheric science proceeded in three phases with each phase being marked by the attempt to organize resources, and bring into the atmospheric science network, scientists from other fields. I argue here that this construction of a science provides evidence of the social nature of science as well as the importance of organizations to the creation of a science.     

马寅初的人口质量观及其现实意义——纪念马寅初诞辰120周年

注重人口质量是马寅初人口思想对马尔萨斯人口论的实质性超越.马寅初关于人口质量的观点主要体现于:人口质量与人口数量是对立的统一;在新时代,人不在乎多,而在乎精;人口质量的提高是德、智、体全面的提高和全民的提高;提高人口质量不能离开本国国情.在现代化进程中我们重温马寅初关于提高人口质量方面的有关观点和主张,有助于我们处理好提高人口质量与稳定低生育水平、保护资源环境、提高农民收入等方面的关系.