景气指标分类方法的理论研究与实证

景气指标分类是景气预测法中至关重要的环节.在以往的文献中,一般采用一种方法对备选指标进行景气分类,但其结果还存在优化的空间.文章采用四种典型的景气指标分类方法:峰谷对应法、时差相关分析法、K-L信息量法、灰色关联度指标分类法对同样的多个指标进行分类.按照初定方案对四种方法的结果进行综合分析,对结果进行优化调整,应用实例表明:四种方法的优化调整结果比单一方法的结果更合理、更有效、更具有科学性.     

我国企业国际承包工程绩效管理机制研究

国际工程承包近年来在我国取得了飞速发展，随着全球经济一体化进一步发展、我国国力的日益增强以及中国企业管理水平的提高，中国企业在国际工程承包方面竞争力日益增强的同时，如何构建有效的绩效管理机制也成为企业必须重视的课题。结合我国企业国际工程承包的发展历史及现状，重点分析了企业在经营过程中面临的问题，进而提出构建有效的绩效管理机制的方案。     

Contents of heavy metals in arable soils and birth defect risks in Shanxi, China: a small area level geographic study

The burgeoning demands of China’s urbanization and industrial development put pressure on the resources of the entire country and have direct and indirect effects on the health of individuals, at times in areas far removed from cities themselves. Current evidence suggests that heavy metal pollution in soil, a common by-product of coal mining and other industrial activities, may be linked to risk of birth defects. We examine this hypothesis using small area level data including soil samples and detailed birth records from 2002 to 2004 from 97 villages in Shanxi province, a heavy coal-mining region. We find that soils containing arsenic, lead, and nickel are significantly correlated with the incidence of birth defects. In particular, we find a strong positive dose-dependent association of birth defects with lead, a moderate positive effect with arsenic, and a dose-dependent negative association with nickel. These results are consistent with the postulated link between arsenic and lead and human birth defects, but raise questions about the effects of nickel in this context. China’s rapid urbanization underscores the need for closer attention to the relationship between the health and the environment.     

Access is not enough: the impact of emotional costs and self-efficacy on the changes in African-American students’ ICT use patterns

Previous research has examined the impact of computing interventions to reduce digital inequity. However, few studies focus on factors such as inequalities to material access, Internet use patterns, and affective or emotional anxiety. This paper investigates the potential role of emotional costs and computer self-efficacy in the connection between computer use at home and students’ computer use patterns. Data for this research come from pretest and posttest surveys administered to fourth- and fifth-grade African-American students. The results reveal that students’ home computer use is a significant predictor of the change in their information and entertainment usage over the course of the intervention. Students’ emotional costs partially mediate the relationship between home computer use and information-oriented usage over the intervention period. The findings suggest that providing students access to digital devices is not enough to close the digital divide.     

Analysis of Deviance for Hypothesis Testing in Generalized Partially Linear Models

In this study, we develop nonparametric analysis of deviance tools for generalized partially linear models based on local polynomial fitting. Assuming a canonical link, we propose expressions for both local and global analysis of deviance, which admit an additivity property that reduces to analysis of variance decompositions in the Gaussian case. Chi-square tests based on integrated likelihood functions are proposed to formally test whether the nonparametric term is significant. Simulation results are shown to illustrate the proposed chi-square tests and to compare them with an existing procedure based on penalized splines. The methodology is applied to German Bundesbank Federal Reserve data.     

Determinants of consistent,timely, and active responses in corporate crises

This paper investigates the individual and combined factors affecting the extent to which corporations respond to crisis events consistently, in a timely manner, and actively. The determinants examined include public relations autonomy, legal dominance, strategic orientation, and organizational factors. A survey was conducted of communications mangers, public affairs personnel, and public relations personnel, drawn from the top 500 companies operating in Taiwan. Results indicate that the relative effect of individual sources of influence on crisis response is greatest for situations in which public relations departments have the most autonomy, followed by those where crisis management is handled with a strategic orientation, those where the legal departments dominate, and those where organizational factors provide the main avenue of address. The results emphasize the intriguing role of public relations autonomy by demonstrating its significant impact on providing a consistent, timely, and active crisis response. The strategic orientation of situation analysis also predicts a consistent response, whereas legal dominance predicts strategic ambiguity or inconsistent communication.     

Measuring Sharedness of Team-Related Knowledge: Design and Validation of a Shared Mental Model Instrument

Many researchers have explored how people share and construct similar mental models in teams. They have claimed that successful team performance depends on a shared mental model of team members about task, team, equipment and situation. Most of the literature has illustrated simplified relationships between a team's mental model and their performance without a valid instrument addressing the confined and relevant constructs of a shared mental model. This paper describes the instrument development steps and the conceptual framework for factors associated with shared mental models. After development and refinement, the instrument was finalized for use to measure team-related knowledge. The final instrument consists of 42 items that are linked to the five emergent factors of shared mental models including general task and team knowledge, general task and communication skills, attitude toward teammates and task, team dynamics and interactions, and team resources and working environment.     

再论社会工作三元（教研习）教育模式--社会工作教师承办服务的利弊

当前社会工作服务在国家政策支持和社会现实需要下得到了迅猛的发展,而社会工作教师纷纷通过成立机构来承办各项政府购买服务,此现象是利是弊?社会工作教育者理论上要做到教学、科研和实习结合(为三元模式),但发展三元模式存在着资金、师资和验证成效等的困难。本文将就此探讨社工教师承办社工服务的现状,并通过应用珠海经验,探讨如何利用机遇,推进社工教育的三元结合模式。     

试论伦理思想在伊斯兰教中的核心地位

伊斯兰教是以道德为本的宗教。在伊斯兰教中 ,宗教信仰是基础 ,伦理道德是核心。离开信仰 ,道德无以寄托 ;离开道德 ,信仰无以落实。信仰之路也就是道德完善之路 ,信仰的最高境界也就是道德的至境。无论是伊斯兰兴教的出发点、最终目的 ,还是伊斯兰教的主旨 ,都说明伦理道德在伊斯兰教中居于核心地位。阐明伦理道德在伊斯兰教中的地位 ,对于我们正确理解伊斯兰教的真谛具有积极意义。     

哈尔滨市方正县自然与民族历史资源的开发利用研究

本文介绍了哈尔滨市方正县的自然与民族历史旅游资源的状况,并对发展当地的旅游业提出了对策和建议。