美国青少年公民道德教育审视与思考

建立和完善对青少年进行公民道德教育的机制是美国教育的特色之一。长期以来，美国在对青少年进行公民道德教育的过程中，形成了特有的人本化、个性化的教育理念，多样性、灵活性的教育方法，渗透性、社会性的教育途径，充分发挥了政治性、阶级性的教育功能，有着一整套独特的理论与实践体系，对青少年公民道德素质培养提高发挥了重要作用。通过对美国青少年进行公民道德教育的内容和运行机制的分析审视，借鉴其成功的经验和做法，可以提高我国青少年公民道德教育的实效性。     

A robust and efficient estimation method for nonparametric models with jump points

Nonparametric models with jump points have been considered by many researchers. However, most existing methods based on least squares or likelihood are sensitive when there are outliers or the error distribution is heavy tailed. In this article, a local piecewise-modal method is proposed to estimate the regression function with jump points in nonparametric models, and a piecewise-modal EM algorithm is introduced to estimate the proposed estimator. Under some regular conditions, the large-sample theory is established for the proposed estimators. Several simulations are presented to evaluate the performances of the proposed method, which shows that the proposed estimator is more efficient than the local piecewise-polynomial regression estimator in the presence of outliers or heavy tail error distribution. What is more, the proposed procedure is asymptotically equivalent to the local piecewise-polynomial regression estimator under the assumption that the error distribution is a Gaussian distribution. The proposed method is further illustrated via the sea-level pressures.     

Optimal financing and dividend policy with Markovian switching regimes

This work investigates an optimal financing and dividend problem for an insurer whose surplus process is modulated by an observable continuous-time and finite-state Markov chain. We assume that the insurer should never go bankrupt by issuing new equity. The goal of the insurer is to maximize the expected present value of the dividends payout minus the discounted cost of equity issuance. We obtain the optimal policies and explicit expressions for the value functions when the risk reserve process is modeled by both upward jump model and its diffusion approximation. Numerical illustrations of the sensitivities of the model parameters are provided.     

Quality self-control and co-supervision mechanism of construction agent in public investment project in China

Public investment project (PIP) plays an important role in the China economy. In order to improve the project management performance of public projects, the government is searching for a scientific system to build a construction management supervision mode. This paper introduces the policy background and connotation of Agent Construction System (ACS). As a public investment construction management model, ACS, is gradually being incorporated into the legal framework, it is necessary to improve the construction agent supervision mechanism. This article analyzes the supervision mechanism of construction agent quality management under the principle of two-stage agent mode and establishes an agent quality self-control system and a government co-supervision system. These systems take the contract management as the core and the project quality objective as the guidance. These systems also consist of a two-dimensional framework of vertical self-control and horizontal supervision, which form a quality supervision mechanism. Based on Rough Set theory, the article proposes the idea of building an agent quality self-control and government co-supervision model, and illustrates it with a flow chart for building the model, which paves the way of quantitative research for the future.     

沙水游戏在幼儿科学教育中的运用

沙水游戏包括玩沙游戏、玩水游戏、沙水结合的游戏。沙水游戏在幼儿科学教育中的价值主要体现在激发幼儿对自然界的好奇心,培养其专注度；激发其探究欲望，培养其探究能力；积累科学经验和感性认识，促进科学认知发展；帮助建立正确的科学前概念等方面。因此，应该积极利用沙水游戏来开展幼儿科学教育。     

Bayesian ratemaking under Dirichlet process mixtures

Experience ratemaking plays a crucial role in general insurance in determining future premiums of individuals in a portfolio by assessing observed claims from the whole portfolio. This paper investigates this problem in which claims can be modeled by certain parametric family of distributions. The Dirichlet process mixtures are employed to model the distributions of the parameters so as to make two advantages: to produce exact Bayesian experience premiums for a class of premium principles generated from generic error functions and, at the same time, provide robust and flexible ways to avoid possible bias caused by traditionally used priors such as non informative priors or conjugate priors. In this paper, the Bayesian experience ratemaking under Dirichlet process mixture models are investigated and due to the lack of analytical forms of the conditional expectations of the quantities concerned, the Gibbs sampling schemes are designed for the purpose of approximations.     

Welfare Programme Participation and the Wellbeing of Non-local Rural Migrants in Metropolitan China: A Social Exclusion Perspective

Social Indicators Research - China has seen an unprecedented increase in rural-to-urban migrants in the last three decades, and the extension of welfare programmes to these migrants has been a...     

车轮优化机的设计与研究

针对旧式车轮优化机存在生产效率低、长期使用可靠性差、优化后产品一致性不够等问题,研制了新型车轮优化机,具有可靠性高、优化功能强、安全性高、一致性好等优点.着重介绍了新型车轮优化机的结构、工作流程、技术难点及解决途径和突破的关键技术,分析了新型车轮优化机在生产过程中存在的问题,提出了相应的改进措施.     

中东剧变中的阿尔及利亚政局透视

2010年底以来,中东地区多国发生了政权更迭,阿尔及利亚一度爆发群众游行示威,但目前阿尔及利亚政局基本稳定,原因可归纳为以下四个方面:一是阿尔及利亚独立以来的长期动荡释放了民众的不满;二是布特弗利卡执政联盟仍具有较强的政治实力;三是国内的两个主要反对派因其各自的缺陷,难以获得大多数民众的支持;四是现政权与美国保持了较好的关系。然而,由于目前中东地区的局势尚在发展中,随着新因素的加入,阿尔及利亚的政局仍存在变数。     

景气指标分类方法的理论研究与实证

景气指标分类是景气预测法中至关重要的环节.在以往的文献中,一般采用一种方法对备选指标进行景气分类,但其结果还存在优化的空间.文章采用四种典型的景气指标分类方法:峰谷对应法、时差相关分析法、K-L信息量法、灰色关联度指标分类法对同样的多个指标进行分类.按照初定方案对四种方法的结果进行综合分析,对结果进行优化调整,应用实例表明:四种方法的优化调整结果比单一方法的结果更合理、更有效、更具有科学性.