Incentives for information sharing in duopoly with capacity constraints

We study the ex ante incentives for firms to share their private information in a Cournot duopoly with capacity constraints. In both demand and cost information sharing games, we show that the incentives can be reversed when some equilibrium solutions are binding on capacity. Especially, we identify some conditions under which partial information sharing is the dominant strategy under both games. Numerical examples are provided for illustration. In addition, we show that information sharing does not necessarily increase social welfare.     

基于非参数与L-Moment估计的股市动态极值ES风险测度研究

通过运用带宽非参数方法、AR-GARCH模型对时间序列的条件均值、条件波动性进行建模估计出标准残差序列,再运用L-Moment与MLE(maximum Likelihood estimation)估计标准残差的尾部的GPD参数,进而运用实验方法测度出风险VaR(value at Risk)及ES(ExpectedShortfall),最后运用Back-Testing方法检验测度准确性。结果表明,基于带宽的非参数估计模型比GARCH簇模型在测度ES上具有更高的可靠性;基于非参数模型与L-Moment的风险测度模型能够有效测度沪深股市的动态VaR与ES。     

Optimal Design of a Pharmaceutical Price–Volume Agreement Under Asymmetric Information About Expected Market Size

Price–volume agreements are commonly negotiated between drug manufacturers and third‐party payers for drugs. In one form a drug manufacturer pays a rebate to the payer on a portion of sales in excess of a specified threshold. We examine the optimal design of such an agreement under complete and asymmetric information about demand. We consider two types of uncertainty: information asymmetry, defined as the payer's uncertainty about mean demand; and market uncertainty, defined as both parties' uncertainty about true demand. We investigate the optimal contract design in the presence of asymmetric information. We find that an incentive compatible contract always exists; that the optimal price is decreasing in expected market size, while the rebate may be increasing or decreasing in expected market size; that the optimal contract for a manufacturer with the highest possible demand would include no rebate; and, in a special case, if the average reservation profit is non‐decreasing in expected market size, then the optimal contract includes no rebates for all manufacturers. Our analysis suggests that price–volume agreements with a rebate rate of 100% are not likely to be optimal if payers have the ability to negotiate prices as part of the agreement.     

Estimating the Probability of Rare Events Occurring Using a Local Model Averaging

In statistical applications, logistic regression is a popular method for analyzing binary data accompanied by explanatory variables. But when one of the two outcomes is rare, the estimation of model parameters has been shown to be severely biased and hence estimating the probability of rare events occurring based on a logistic regression model would be inaccurate. In this article, we focus on estimating the probability of rare events occurring based on logistic regression models. Instead of selecting a best model, we propose a local model averaging procedure based on a data perturbation technique applied to different information criteria to obtain different probability estimates of rare events occurring. Then an approximately unbiased estimator of Kullback‐Leibler loss is used to choose the best one among them. We design complete simulations to show the effectiveness of our approach. For illustration, a necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) data set is analyzed.     

“绿色GDP热”的冷思考

环境与经济的协调发展是近年来社会各界广泛关注的话题 ,也是社会发展中的宏观管理研究的重要领域。其中如何确立一套指标体系来衡量环境与经济的相互影响已经成为学术界讨论的热点。本文拟从 2 0 0 4年以来出现的“绿色GDP热”出发 ,揭示这一现象存在的误区 ,然后分析环境经济综合核算体系的可行性 ,最后给出相应的调整路径和现阶段的替代方案 ,为促进新发展观的落实以及环境与社会经济的协调发展献计献策。　　一、关于“绿色GDP热”绿色GDP是近年来经常被提及的一个国民经济核算术语 ,是指扣除了自然资源消耗和环境成本以后的经济产…     

健康教育与学校体育关联分析

采用文献资料法对学校健康教育进行探讨 ,论述了体育与健康相结合是社会发展的需要 ,是适应素质教育的需要 ,也是体育教育和健康教育发展的需要     

使用小波分析的图像融合算法

利用小波分析实现ＳＡＲ图像与光学图像的融合和互补性。这种图像融合方法是利用ＳＡＲ图像小波分解后的近似部分和光学图像小波分解后的细节部分，组成一个新的小波分解系数，再进行逆小波变换（重构），即可得到复合的图像，取得了较好的实验效果。     

中国法制的新发展:从单一法制到多元法制

我国在香港和澳门回归后出现的多元法制现象，标志着我国已从一个单一法制国家发展成为一个多元法制国家。该文认为多元法制局面的出现会对我国整体法制结构产生深远的影响，并带来一系列区际法律问题，比如区际法律关系、区际法律冲突、区际司法协助以及区际法律的协商、协调与合作等；该文还倡导重视对区际法律问题或法律事务的研究和处理，建立全国法律协商和协调机制。     

产业集群发展的制度经济学分析

本文结合生命周期理论,从新制度经济学的角度出发,对产业集群的性质以及产生、发展、成熟、衰退和升级过程作出了新的解释和分析。