Linear Increments with Non‐monotone Missing Data and Measurement Error

Linear increments (LI) are used to analyse repeated outcome data with missing values. Previously, two LI methods have been proposed, one allowing non‐monotone missingness but not independent measurement error and one allowing independent measurement error but only monotone missingness. In both, it was suggested that the expected increment could depend on current outcome. We show that LI can allow non‐monotone missingness and either independent measurement error of unknown variance or dependence of expected increment on current outcome but not both. A popular alternative to LI is a multivariate normal model ignoring the missingness pattern. This gives consistent estimation when data are normally distributed and missing at random (MAR). We clarify the relation between MAR and the assumptions of LI and show that for continuous outcomes multivariate normal estimators are also consistent under (non‐MAR and non‐normal) assumptions not much stronger than those of LI. Moreover, when missingness is non‐monotone, they are typically more efficient.     

Urban ecosystem Services in Latin America: mismatch between global concepts and regional realities?

Urban Ecosystems - Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is one of the most urbanized and biologically diverse regions in the world but is often characterized by weak environmental governance and...     

Protecting and Benchmarking Migrants’ Rights: An Analysis of the Global Compact for Safe,Orderly and Regular Migration

The Global Compact for Safe, Orderly, and Regular Migration (GCM) was to be “guided by human rights law and standards” in recognition of the rights of international migrants, who are currently protected by an overlapping patchwork of treaties and international law. The GCM contains many laudable commitments that, if implemented, will ensure that states more consistently respect, protect, and fulfil the rights of all migrants and also that states incorporate data on migration into a more cohesive governance regime that does more to promote cooperation on the issue of international migration. However, many concerns remain. Using a legal analysis and cross‐national policy data, we find that the GCM neither fully articulates existing law nor makes use of international consensus to expand the rights of migrants. In its first section, this article provides a concise analysis of the GCM's compliance with a set of core principles of existing international human rights law regarding migrants. In the second section, we apply a novel instrument to create an objective, cross‐national accounting of the laws protecting migrants’ rights in various national legal frameworks. Focusing on a sample of five diverse destination and sending countries, the results suggest we are close to an international consensus on the protection of a core set of migrants’ rights. This analysis should help prioritize the work necessary to implement the GCM.     

100 key research questions for the post‐2015 development agenda

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) herald a new phase for international development. This article presents the results of a consultative exercise to collaboratively identify 100 research questions of critical importance for the post‐2015 international development agenda. The final shortlist is grouped into nine thematic areas and was selected by 21 representatives of international and non‐governmental organisations and consultancies, and 14 academics with diverse disciplinary expertise from an initial pool of 704 questions submitted by 110 organisations based in 34 countries. The shortlist includes questions addressing long‐standing problems, new challenges and broader issues related to development policies, practices and institutions. Collectively, these questions are relevant for future development‐related research priorities of governmental and non‐governmental organisations worldwide and could act as focal points for transdisciplinary research collaborations.     

Betting Decision Under Break-Streak Pattern: Evidence from Casino Gaming

Cognitive bias is prevalent among gamblers, especially those with gambling problems. Grounded in the heuristics theories, this study contributes to the literature by examining a cognitive bias triggered by the break streak pattern in the casino setting. We postulate that gamblers tend to bet on the latest outcome when there is a break-streak pattern. Moreover, three determinants of the betting decision under break-streak pattern, including the streak length of the alternative outcome, the frequency of the latest outcome, and gender, were identified and examined in this study. A non-participatory observational study was conducted among the Cussec gamblers in a casino in Macao. An analysis of 1229 bets confirms our postulation, particularly when the streak of the alternative outcome is long, the latest outcome is frequent, and the gamblers are females. The findings provide meaningful implications for casino management and public policymakers regarding the minimization of gambling harm.     

Avian haemosporidian parasites in an urban forest and their relationship to bird size and abundance

Urbanization has been identified as a threat to biodiversity due to landscape modifications. Studies of parasite ecology in urbanized areas lagged behind those made on macro organisms. Here we studied infection prevalence of haemosporidian parasites in an avian community of an urban forest from Germany, and its relationship with bird abundance and body mass. We used PCR to amplify a fragment of the mtDNA cyt b gene to determine the infection status of birds, and bird point counts to determine bird relative abundances. The avifauna was dominated by two small sized insectivore passerines (Parus major, Cyanistes caeruleus), representing ~40 % of the total bird records. The highest haemosporidian prevalence was recorded for Turdus philomelos (100 %) and for Fringilla coelebs (75 %). Bird abundance and body mass were positively associated with infection status for two haemosporidian genera: Plasmodium and Leucocytozoon. Infection rate was lower in juveniles compared to adult birds. We recorded a total of 7 Plasmodium, 26 Haemoproteus, and 10 Leucocytozoon lineages. Avian malaria (P. relictum) was detected infecting 5 individuals of P. major, the most abundant species in the community. These results, together with those of previous studies at the same site, suggest that potentially any of the genetic haemosporidian lineages detected in this urban forest can be transmitted across native and pet bird species, and to species of conservation concern housed at aviaries.     

Peeking into the past to plan the future: Assessing bird species richness in a neotropical city

Urbanization has been considered as a major threat to biodiversity, making its ecology of increasing interest. Many urban ecology studies have been developed in a short time-scale, measuring real-time patterns. However, long-term studies are imperative to understand the responses of some species to the urbanization process. In this study, we aimed to assess the information provided by a recent one-year citywide bird survey when compared to a published ‘historical’ bird list of a neotropical city (Xalapa, Mexico) that compiles information of the past three decades, mainly from urban greenspaces. Specifically, we contrasted species richness values and assessed differences in species composition between both lists. We recorded 51 species in the one-year citywide survey, representing ~15 % of those reported in the historical list. Nonetheless, the upper-bound confidence interval of the citywide survey richness prediction represented ~66 %. Most of the species recorded in the one-year citywide survey are insectivores and granivores, a pattern that agrees with previous findings that underline the importance of insectivores as part of urban bird communities in the Neotropics. Although we used robust methods to compare our one-year citywide bird list and the historical list for the city of Xalapa, we acknowledge the limitations of comparing them. However, our results shed some light on the kind and type of information that one-year citywide surveys can provide and the importance of long-term studies for comprehending the processes involved in biodiversity changes within urban areas over time. Undoubtedly, establishing long-term citywide surveys sampling birds and other biodiversity groups will allow us to better understand the response of biodiversity to urbanization over time.     

Fading Frames: Data Presentation and Framing Effects*

This article describes three experiments that investigate the impact of data presentation on framing, which is the differential evaluation of objectively equivalent information given different frames of reference. The experiments were designed to vary the amount of information and the format of presentation (tables versus graphs) provided to the decision maker to gain an understanding of the mechanism underlying framing. The inferred information model proposed by Johnson and Levin [11] is utilized to explain the results of the three experiments in terms of the redistribution of weights attached by the decision makers to the attributes of the prospective outcomes. The results of the three experiments indicate that framing effects are observed only when the presentation of data facilitates the shifting of weights among the attributes of the available alternatives. The results further indicate that framing is eliminated as more information is displayed. However, presentation of additional information does not eliminate framing when a graphical format is utilized. Finally, no framing effects are observed when uneven amounts of information are used to describe two alternatives in the same decision task.     

Reinvigorating the social contract and strengthening social cohesion: Social protection responses to COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the vulnerability of those who are inadequately covered by social protection in more and less developed countries alike, and has exacerbated the fragility of a social contract that was already under strain in many countries. A weak social contract in the context of an exceptional crisis poses a very real risk to social cohesion. Nevertheless, many States have reasserted themselves as the guarantor of rights by protecting public health and incomes. By sustaining these measures, economic recovery will be supported which will help minimize risks that may weaken social cohesion. However, this is a fast-moving, inherently unstable and protracted crisis. Social protection stands at a critical juncture. Decisive policy action will be required to strengthen social protection systems, including floors, as one of the cornerstones of a reinvigorated social contract.